Kenyan by-elections have always carried significance far beyond the constituency in which they are held. While they determine who occupies a vacant parliamentary seat, they also serve as the country’s closest equivalent to a political opinion poll between general elections.
Every victory and every defeat is scrutinised for clues about public sentiment, the strength of the government, the momentum of the opposition, and the likely trajectory toward the next general election.
That is precisely why the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has attracted attention well beyond Nyandarua county. Yet unlike most by-elections, this one presents an unusual political paradox.
Ordinarily, opposition supporters instinctively rally behind whichever opposition candidate appears most capable of defeating the candidate backed by the government.
Not this time.
Many within the broader anti-Ruto political camp (Wantam) quietly hope that UDA, rather than the DCP emerges victorious. At first glance, this appears counterintuitive. Why would opponents of the government prefer a government victory?
The answer lies not in Ol Kalou itself but in 2027.
Among sections of the opposition, there is a growing belief that a DCP victory would further embolden Rigathi Gachagua to still try and make himself the kingmaker for the Mt Kenya region. A win like this would no doubt make it even more difficult for the opposition to reach a compromise as to who should objectively and realistically represent the group as flagbearer.
Put another way, for those who believe that defeating the incumbent will ultimately require compromise, collective leadership and careful management of competing ambitions, an even stronger Gachagua could complicate rather than facilitate that process.
Here is where Kenyan politics reveals one of its many ironies.
If some in the opposition privately prefer a UDA victory, there are equally compelling reasons why UDA itself might not be overly disappointed by a DCP triumph.
A stronger DCP could intensify chaos and disunity within the opposition, deepen rivalries over leadership and presidential ambitions and make the already difficult task of forging a united front even more challenging.
Meanwhile, the Jubilee Party faces an altogether different challenge. Although it rightfully seeks to retain a seat that it won in 2022, political realities on the ground suggest that DCP currently enjoys stronger grassroots momentum in the constituency.
With both DCP and Jubilee fielding candidates, the opposition vote risks being divided, thereby improving UDA’s prospects in what might otherwise have been a straightforward opposition contest.
One cannot help but wonder whether a different approach might have produced a different outcome.
Had cooler heads prevailed, DCP and Jubilee could have figured a way to back a single candidate who stood the better chance of defeating UDA, allowing opposition supporters to rally behind this single standard-bearer.
Instead, personal ambition and humongous ego appears to have prevailed over strategic calculation, producing an entirely avoidable fragmentation of the anti-government vote.
That lesson extends well beyond Ol Kalou.
If the opposition cannot agree on one parliamentary candidate in a single constituency, how much more difficult will it be for them to agree on a single presidential flagbearer for the entire country?
That is the question the opposition should already be confronting.
Because if multiple opposition presidential candidates eventually enter the 2027 race, each commanding substantial regional support but unwilling to yield to another, the arithmetic becomes painfully simple.
Votes that might collectively defeat the incumbent become scattered among several contenders, making victory for the governing coalition considerably easier.
Kenyan elections have repeatedly demonstrated that unity is not merely desirable; it is often decisive.
The classic example is 2002.
Perhaps, then, the most important result to emerge from Ol Kalou is not who wins the parliamentary seat. It will be whether the opposition learns the larger lesson that unity requires sacrifice, humility and an honest acceptance that no single leader owns the opposition movement.
And if there is one prominent opposition figure who may quietly be hoping that DCP does not carry the day in Ol Kalou, it might well be Jubilee’s presidential hopeful, Fred Matiang’i.
After all, in politics, today’s by-election can become tomorrow’s coalition negotiation — and every vote cast today has a way of finding its echo in the next presidential contest.
