The battle for the Ol Kalou parliamentary seat exposes deepening political mistrust in the Mt Kenya opposition, notably between former President Uhuru’s Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party and Democracy for the Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua.
Opposition disunity will benefit President William Ruto and his UDA.
The seat in Nyandarua was left vacant following the death of three-term MP David Njuguna Kiaraho on March 29.
Political analysts argue what began as a routine by-election has rapidly transformed into a high-stakes political referendum on who controls the future of opposition politics in Mt Kenya.
“What was sold as a united mission to challenge President William Ruto and dismantle UDA’s grip on Mt Kenya is now degenerating into a brutal internal contest for dominance, succession, and political survival,” political analyst and columnist Albert Kasembelisays.
He argues the Ol-Kalou by-election has become the first major political testing ground for former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after his dramatic falling with the Kenya Kwanza administration. He was impeached In October 2024 and is challenging his removal as he vigorously calls for kicking out President Ruto, his former boss and now his nemesis.
“A win for Gachagua would strengthen his argument that he still commands the region politically,” Kasembeli told the Star. “A loss, however, would hand his critics ammunition to portray his movement as emotionally loud but structurally weak.”
Speaking to the Star, Gatanga MP Edward Muriu said the DCP is the most popular political formation in Mt Kenya, warning rival camps to brace for a major defeat in 2027 if they fail to read the shifting political tide.
“DCP is not just rising, it is already the dominant political force in Mt Kenya and those underrating it are doing so at their own political peril,” Muriu said. “The ground has changed, and 2027 will be a rude awakening for those still relying on outdated party structures.”
He said the party’s momentum is being driven by strong grassroots mobilisation and what he termed a “clear rejection of recycled political formations”, arguing that voters are increasingly aligning with structures they perceive as more responsive and locally grounded.
Muriu said the rapid expansion of DCP networks across key counties signals a deeper realignment in regional politics, warning that rival parties risk being outpaced if they fail to adapt quickly to the evolving dynamics.
Earlier this week, Gachagua had claimed that whoever would win the DCP nomination for Ol Kalau would automatically become the next MP. He said that he personally would be there afterward to congratulate rival Sammy Ngotho, who was the former MCA and UDA parliamentary aspirant in 2022, but lost.
On the other hand, Jubilee has also expressed confidence in winning back the seat initially held by Kiaraho, claiming Gachagua’s party would have ceded the position and supported their candidate. This would be similar to what DCP did to the Democratic Partyin Mbeere North. UDA’s Leonard Wa Muthene won that seat, defeating Newton Karish of DP.
A recent meeting between Jubilee deputy leader Jeremiah Kioni and Gachagua revealed an increasing willingness to work together politically.
Despite the public display of unity, political insiders say mistrust between the two camps remains deep beneath the surface as they battle for the Mt Kenya vote bloc.
Analysts argue that while the DCP portrays itself as the fastest-growing political movement in Central, Jubilee leaders increasingly believe the party’s long-term objective is to retain that place. The support of former President Kenyatta will also work miracles for the party, they say.
That suspicion intensified last week after DCP conducted competitive party primaries in Ol Kalou, where Ngotho secured the ticket with 12,957 votes while Jubilee opted not to involve voters and chose board room selection.
In a statement after the nominations, Gachagua praised the exercise as proof of DCP’s internal democracy
“The voice of the Kenyan people is what we listen to,” he said. “The people own the party, they make the choice of the leaders they want to be led by.” Gachagua maintained the party will clinch the seat and outsmart UDA party led by President Ruto.
Charles Mwangi, a former Ichagaki MCA, told the Star the recent DCP popular vote nominations demonstrated the party’s growing grassroots machinery and its attempt to psychologically dominate the Mt Kenya political space before coalition agreements are finalised.
“While DCP under Rigathi Gachagua is rapidly building an aggressive grassroots mobilisation structure,” he said, “the Jubilee Party appears to be relying on its traditional networks that are increasingly losing traction in the new political order shaping Central Kenya.”
In a statement issued on May 12, Jubilee announced Wilson Kigwa as its Ol Kalau candidate after internal consultations.
“The party received applications from several qualified and committed aspirants from across the constituency, demonstrating the continued confidence that the people of Ol Kalou have in Jubilee Party and its vision for the future of our nation,” a statement read.
That statement was widely interpreted as Jubilee’s attempt to project confidence amidst increasing fears that DCP is overtaking the party in Mt Kenya.
Reliable sources have revealed to the Star that Gachagua has been traversing the Mt Kenya region, reaching out to former and strong Jubilee candidate who lost in the 2022 general election.
“Senior Jubilee figures are increasingly concerned that DCP is quietly attracting experienced grassroots mobilisers, former Jubilee aspirants and local coordinators across Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, and Nyandarua counties,” one source said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.
Former Nyeri MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, who served as Gachagua’s political and communications adviser before a falling out, has openly accused the former deputy president of trying to weaken Jubilee politically.
Wambugu, through his social media page, recently argued that DCP’s broader strategy is to position itself as the only acceptable political vehicle in Mt Kenya.
“We must remind him [Gachagua] that his call for a single party has no place in Mt Kenya,” Wambugu said in a statement “He must recognise the importance of allowing other parties to exist both now and in the future to ensure a vibrant and inclusive political landscape.”
He also defended proposals that the Ol Kalou seat should have been ceded to Jubilee under opposition coalition arrangements.
“Those arguing that the opposition should not cede Ol Kalou to Jubilee because Kiaraho was working with government must also remember that in Mbeere, Geoffrey Ruku actually joined government despite being in DP, which was in the ppposition. But the seat was still ceded to DP,” Wambugu said.
Ruku is Cabinet Secretary for Public Service, Human Capital Development and Special Programmes.
Wambugu again in recent weeks rejected zoning within the United Opposition, stating that the Jubilee Party should be allowed to field aspirants anywhere in the country.
In a statement on his social media pages on March 21, the outspoken politician has been vocal about the plight of Jubilee aspirants and what he terms as their mistreatment within the United Opposition camp.
“Any Jubilee aspirant must have an opportunity to vie for any position, anywhere in Kenya,” Wambugu said.
He said Gachagua, through his Democracy for Citizens Party, wants to zone Jubilee out of Nyeri and field DCP candidates for all elective seats in the county, effectively locking out Jubilee.
His remarks have exposed growing discomfort among former Jubilee loyalists who fear DCP’s rapid rise could erase older political structures tied to Uhuru’s legacy.
In radio interviews this week, Kioni admitted Jubilee had lost ground in Mt Kenya during its transition and accused Gachagua of taking advantage of the vacuum to consolidate DCP’s influence.
“I feel a little unhappy because during this transition, Jubilee has lost ground, especially in the mountains; Gachagua seized it and has run with it,” the Jubilee official said.
Kioni warned that Jubilee aspirants must understand the new political reality taking shape in the region.
“The two parties that are going to battle it out in Mt Kenya are DCP and Jubilee, no longer UDA in its current form as we know it,” he said.
The Jubilee official said, “DCP is very clear that their opponent in Mt Kenya region is Jubilee and not UDA associated with President William Ruto.”
Analysts termed Kioni’s remarks were a rare public acknowledgment that the opposition’s internal succession battle has already begun, long before formal coalition talks for the 2027 polls.
Meru MCA aspirant and former journalist Kobia Koome has said that while DCP, Jubilee and the People's Liberation Party (formerly Narc) led Martha Karua continue to publicly market themselves as part of a “United Opposition”, the Ol Kalou contest has revealed a coalition struggling with internal distrust.
“Politics in Central Kenya is no longer about shared platforms, but survival and control,” Kobia said, warning that both DCP and the Jubilee are increasingly treating the Ol Kalou by-election as a battlefield for dominance rather than unity.
Karua announced that Ndirangu Martin Wambugu, popularly known as Tinga Tinga, would be its candidate for by-election.She expressed confidence PLP will win the seat.
Political observers say that despite PLP’s participation, the central battle remains between Jubilee and DCP over who becomes the dominant anti-Ruto force in Mt Kenya.
Outspoken political analyst Herman Manyora recently warned the so-called United Opposition against approaching the upcoming Ol Kalou by-election with different parties fielding candidates. He said they risk handing victory to the ruling UDA.
Speaking during his daily political analysis on May 11, Manyora warned that opposition disunity in politically competitive regions like Mt Kenya could ultimately work in Ruto’s favour.
“There are places where if you don’t have a united front, Ruto will beat you; there are places where you must have one candidate against William Ruto; and there are also places where those might not apply; it must be informed by the situation on the ground,” Manyora said,
DCP, Jubilee and PLP will contest against UDA candidate Samuel Nyaga, who previously served as personal assistant to Kiaraho.
Nyandarua Senator John Methu, who is a close ally of former DP Gachagua, recently demonstrated how politically significant the Ol Kalou race has become for DCP leaders.
While addressing a rally, Methu emotionally pleaded with voters to support the DCP candidate.
“I request you please elect the DCP candidate,” he said. “I’m humbly pleading and I don’t want to cry, I have never begged you like this earlier.”
He warned that defeat would politically damage both his career and Gachagua’s standing.
“If we lose this, it will be a bad gesture ahead of 2027,” Methu said.
