It is safe to say that even the Linda Mwananchi brigade was shocked by the reception they received in Kisumu last Sunday, in their most anticipated rally of all. Ahead of the event, tension had built up to unprecedented levels, with threats of violence made openly by several leaders from the region against the Sifuna-led ODM faction.
As it turned out, local broad-based ODM leaders were left with egg on their faces, after the Linda Mwananchi team stormed the lakeside city to a rousing welcome.
It is also safe to state that the Linda Mwananchi Kisumu showpiece would never have happened if the vicious attack on Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi had not taken place in the lakeside city on April 8.
At least not last weekend. It was that brazen attack that motivated the defiance within the movement to prove a point to state operatives and local politicians that they could not carve out Kisumu as a no-go zone.
In fact, the announcement of the Kisumu date was first made right next to Senator Osotsi’s hospital bed, as he recuperated from the injuries.
From then on, and with Nakuru still to be visited, the team quickly slotted Kisumu after Nakuru, with an impromptu but hugely successful Vihiga “homecoming tour” for Osotsi slated a day earlier. In simple terms, Senator Osotsi took one for the team and fuelled the momentum towards Kisumu.
There was a level of desperation within government circles and the broad-based ODM networks in the town that pointed to fear that the proverbial wind would blow and the chicken would be exposed.
The litany of threats, from such diverse sources as sitting MPs, former MPs, boda boda leaders and local youth groups, could only mean that they all knew that a visit by Linda Mwananchi would ultimately expose the sinking sand on which they had built their narratives.
There is a common saying in Kenyan politics whenever an opponent or opposing formation attracts huge crowds: This is that “crowds don’t translate to votes”.
Yet the Kisumu extravaganza did not seem to be merely about the large spontaneous crowds alone. A closer look captured the passion and conviction of the people.
At some point, cameras captured patients at a local hospital gathering on the balcony of their facility to soak in a bit of the vibe from the ecstatic streets.
There are lessons to be learnt from the success of the ODM rebels in Kisumu. One of them is that the carefully choreographed and controlled political activities in the land may not necessarily translate to acceptance within the grassroots.
I have stated here before that the Luo community is inherently pro-justice and quite beholden to loud political activism. The manner in which the state and broad-based ODM have gone out of their way to paint a picture of total conformity is itself a lie.
In many ways, President Ruto appears desperate to create the image that the Luo community is a ready vote bloc to back his re-election should he ultimately lose his erstwhile Mt Kenya backers.
But he has gone about it all wrong. There is near-consensus that he would have reaped more political rewards in Luo Nyanza by letting ODM go through the paces of transitioning into the post-Raila realm without what seems to be perennial state manipulation and choreography.
But as the weeks and months roll by, young Luo voters are openly questioning the hurriedly convened process that installed Oburu Oginga after Raila, and the unending spectacle of government largesse showered on the party, which can only mean that the party acts on the whims of the President rather than the desires of the grassroots.
By the time Linda Mwananchi finally arrived in the lakeside city, the discontent had grown louder, and ODM leaders must have known how deep it was, enough to try and stop the rally.
It is important to note that the attack on Osotsi and the foolish harassment of Senator Richard Onyonka at an establishment in Siaya town just a day before the Kisumu rally, helped fuel the desire by locals to distance themselves from the goon culture that was taking root in town.
State operatives might not know this, but when goons run riot and show the brazenness that can only be a result of state protection, the message conveyed to the grassroots is that no one would be safe under the incumbent regime.
Indeed, the government’s poor handling of the Osotsi attack left local residents with the option of turning up to pass the message that they didn’t identify with the activities of the goons.
As of now, apart from the three attackers who were charged in court, and who reportedly presented themselves to police rather than being arrested, at least 10 of the Senator’s attackers are still at large.
I need to mention that since the restoration of multi-party politics in 1992, the Luo community has never gone to the ballot to vote for an incumbent.
A lot of that has to do with the presence of both Jaramogi and Raila Odinga, but incumbents tend to carry the baggage of regime failures in the preceding five-year cycle, and therefore tend to be judged harshly by the politically conscious people.
For this trend to be broken and a vote for Ruto attempted, the persuasion has to be made by a hugely credible community leadership, whose integrity, like Raila’s before it, is beyond reproach.
Unfortunately, in “overseeing” the ODM transition, the President has opted to prop up ODM leaders who fit his desires, rather than the really respected leaders, in a community where credibility in leadership holds very high premium.
If anything, the fact that local broad-based leaders could only resort to threats and fake cancellation notices of the Linda Mwananchi meeting on Sunday confirms that they, too, do not believe that they have the people behind them.
A confident political leader or government operative would, at the very least, hold enough sway within the masses not to worry about which political formation passes by.
All political coalitions now have to reset and recalibrate their strategy for the 2027 election. As things currently stand, Linda Mwananchi is growing from strength to strength and capturing the imagination of young people all across the country.
A commentator rightly noted that this is the only formation that can get a rousing welcome everywhere in the country, without having to seek the permission of local political lords or tagging along local faces for acceptance.
Because the Kisumu rally has broken some perceived barriers, the next few months portend a situation where all parties across the political divide will pause their strategy to keep an eye on this youthful movement’s plans.
If Linda Mwananchi morphs into a political party and fronts a presidential candidate, all early calculations will be off the table. It is my estimation that, backed by a multi-tribal, countrywide youth movement, this is so far the only political grouping that can run a credible presidential candidate without needing to enter into the usual coalitions based on perceived regional strengths.
Which is my way of saying that after storming Kisumu, and especially if it holds together and remains strong, the real national electoral movement has now become the Linda Mwananchi faction.
It will predictably start receiving defectors in the coming weeks, while also appearing to capture bases previously carved out for certain parties and tribal lords. And that, overall, will be a very good thing for our politics. The chase is on for the 2027 prize!
The writer is a political commentator
