Kenya’sfirstgreatpoliticaloppositionatindependence was hardly genteel. Like today’s political contests,therivalrybetweenKanuandKaduwasshapedbyethnicinterests,personalambition and bitter division.
Kadu represented smaller communities that feared domination by the larger ethnicblocsgatheredwithinKanu.Yetthatrivalrypossessedsomethingincreasinglyscarcein today’s politics: a serious disagreement about what the country should become.
Asindependenceapproached,KanuandKaduagreedthatcolonialrulehadtoend,despite profoundlydisagreeingaboutwhatshouldreplaceit.Kanufavouredastrongcentralgovernment.
But Kadu feared that concentrating power in Nairobi would expose smaller communities to domination, so it suggested majimbo: dispersed political power through regional governments protectedbyconstitutionalsafeguards.
ThisinstitutionalcompetitioncontinuedtoLancasterHouse,whereKadupressedforregional structuresandminorityprotection.Incontrast,Kanuarguedthatayoungcountryneededastrong center.
Theindependencesettlementreflectedacompromisebetweenthesetwovisions.Thatisthe importantcomparisonwithtoday’sopposition.KadudidnotmerelytellKanuthatitwaswrong. It explained what itwouldbuild instead.
Kanuwonthe1963election.KadudissolvedthefollowingyearandmergedintoKanu,and muchoftheregionalarchitecturewasdismantled.Kadulosttheimmediatepoliticalcontest,but itsmajimboargumentprovedhardertobury.
Oppositionwithoutanalternative
AppliedtocontemporaryKenya,thiscomparisonisuncomfortable.Today’soppositioniseffective atidentifyinggrievances.Itislesseffectiveatconsistentlygeneratingalternatives.Taxesaretoohigh –whatexpenditureshouldbecut?Debtisexpensive–whichprojectsshouldbepostponed?The
housinglevyisobjectionable–whatisthealternativehousingplan?Healthreformsaredefective– whatshouldreplacethem?PresidentRuto’sVision 2060isunrealistic–thenwhatisthealternative, andhowwillKenyagoaboutachievingdevelopment?
Thesearenotrhetoricaltraps.Theyarequestionsagovernment-in-waitingoughttorelishforan oppositiontobe worthits salt. Amere “No” isa verdict, not aprogramme.
Kaduunderstoodthedifference.ItsanswertoKanu’scentralismwasregionalism.Whateverits defects,thepropositionwasconcreteenoughtonegotiate,writeintoconstitutionalarrangements andtestagainstacompetingmodel.Whatdoestoday’soppositionbringtothetableapartfrom askingKenyanstochoosebetweenthegovernment’sprogrammeandindignationatthatprogramme?
Thatisanunequalcontest.
Thereisanironytoosharptoignore.Afterthe2022election,PresidentRutorejectedanother handshake,sayingthathisgovernmentwelcomedavibrantoppositionthatwouldkeephis
administrationonitstoes.Hisdemocraticprinciplewassound;aseriousdemocracyrequiresmore thanagovernmentandpeoplewhodislikeit.Itrequiresanalternativegovernmentcapableof
subjectingtheincumbent'sideastodisciplinedcompetition.
Politicsmovedon.OppositionfiguresenteredRuto’sbroad-basedgovernment,andinMarchlast year the President andRailaOdingasignedaformalcooperationpact.
Whateverone’sviewofthatarrangement, theresultingblurbetweengovernmentandoppositionmakesanindependentalternativemore urgent,notless.DespiteRutoaskingforanoppositionthatkeepshimaccountable,hehas toooftenreceivedonecapablemainlyofkeepinghimirritatedwithslogansandname-calling.
Thetwoarenotthesame.
TheKadutest
Thepoliticiansofthe1960swerenotintrinsicallysuperiororbetterpatriots.Ethnicityandambition permeated their contest, and regionalism could carry exclusionary politics.
But their competition did notpreventthemfromproducinganalternativearchitectureofgovernment.Theycreatedadispute strongenoughtoforcebothsidesbeyondpersonalitiesandintoquestionsofinstitutions,
safeguards,landandauthority.
Kenya’seconomicandpoliticaldebatesdeservethesamecalibreofcompetition.Anoppositionthat takes time to assess mwananchiissues, or government proposals and generate well-constructed alternativeswouldbefarmoresellabletotheelectorateandkeepthegovernmentofthedaymore accountable.
Mostgovernmentscandismissaslogan,butitismuchhardertodismissabetter proposition.
Ruto’sgovernmentdoesnotfearanoppositionthatarrivesatarallywithanewslogan,butitwould treatdifferentlyonethatcomestoParliamentwithaspreadsheet.
Oppositionthatleavessomethingbehind
Kaduoffersadeeperlesson;agreatoppositioncanloseanelectionandstillhelpbuildthe
country.ItnevergovernedindependentKenya.Yetthedangersofconcentratedpowerandthecase fordispersingsomeofitremainedpartofKenya’sconstitutionalargumentfordecades.And althoughthisdoesnotmakeKadu’sproposalthesingularbasisofmoderndevolution,it
demonstrates something more useful: an opposition can lose politically and still win the national conversation.
Imaginetoday’soppositionapproachingUDA’sprioritieswithspecifics.Ifitdevisedasuperior
housingmodelandRuto’sgovernmentadoptedpartofitinimplementingtheaffordablehousing initiative,Kenyawouldwin.IftheoppositionproducedacredibletaxframeworkandtheTreasury borrowedfromit.Kenyawouldsimilarlybenefitiftheoppositionexposedweaknessesinthe
Singaporeproposalandforcedimprovements.Suchphilosophicalbasesofoppositionwould supportanalternativegoverningprogrammeandprovideagoodstartingpointshouldtheopposition win the presidency.
Iamnoturgingtheoppositiontobemediocreorevengentler.Iamurgingittodrawontherich
politicalhistory ofourdemocracy torecognisewhat isnotonly possiblebuthasalready beendone.A democracy matures not only when it learns from mistakes and does not repeat them, but also when it embraces its successes and institutionalises them.
Kadu challenged Kanu’s constitutional vision and forced negotiations that forged the conception of the state. That is formidable opposition,whichshouldbecome commonplace in the Kenyan political order.
To get there, today’sKenya needsnot lessresistance, but higher-quality resistance. Oppose taxes but bringashadowbudget.Opposeborrowingbutbringafinancingplanandpublishadebtplan.
Opposehousingpolicybutbringamodel.OpposeindustrialpolicybutidentifytheindustriesKenya should prioritise. More importantly, when the government succeeds, acknowledge it and raise the target.Thatisthedistinctionbetweenoppositionandobstruction.
Obstructionaskshowtopreventthegovernmentfromsucceeding.Seriousoppositionaskshow Kenyacansucceedbetter.Asweapproachthe2027election,rememberthatthedemocraticneed
forpurposefuloppositionwillnotendwhenthevotesarecounted.Whoeverformsthegovernment willneed–anddeserve-anoppositioncapableofchallengingtherulinggovernment’sphilosophy, policies,andperformancewithacrediblealternativevision.
EverygovernmentshouldfaceitsownKadu.Whenitdoes,Kenyawins.
