The economic toll of El Niño continues to rise, with the weather phenomenon causing significant losses in Kenya and around the world.
In Kenya, the 1997–1998 El Niño wiped out an estimated 11 per cent of annual GDP, equivalent to about Sh290 billion.
Looking ahead, the 2026 event is projected to reduce Kenya’s GDP by 1–2 per cent, translating to estimated economic losses of up to Sh352 billion.
Globally, the financial impact has also increased sharply over the decades.
The 1982–1983 El Niño is estimated to have caused $1.3 trillion in losses, rising to $2.1 trillion during the 1997–1998 event and $3.9 trillion in 2015–2016. By 2026, global economic losses could reach as much as $6.4 trillion.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), El Niño is driven by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The WMO says the current event is expected to intensify into a very strong episode from October 2026, with near 100 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027.
