In spite of and despite everything written and said everywhere and anywhere, it still remains clear to me that President William Ruto will retain his seat as Kenya's CEO next year.
Ruto is not the media's favourite contestant. Facts and data, however, back his return to office in August next year.
There can be no denying the obvious fact that the most serious challenge Ruto faces is poor communication, not the opposition.
None other than Health Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale and former presidential adviser Moses Kuria have publicly admitted to this blindingly obvious flaw.
In articles published elsewhere, I have wondered three times since 2022 whether the Kenyan populace still trusts our mainstream media.
I am still asking the same question today, even though our media is not the subject of my discussion here.
From my personal lenses, both as a journalist and a Kenyan citizen, just as in 2022, I see Ruto winning the 2027 presidential contest without sweating so much, although that is not what I read, watch or listen to on a daily basis. The opposite is what flourishes.
In the countdown to the 2022 general election, the entire Kenyan mainstream media and pollsters ganged up against the presidential candidacy of then Deputy President Ruto.
The media rallied behind a state-backed contestant in the person of Raila Odinga of the Azimio la Umoja coalition headed by outgoing head of state Uhuru Kenyatta.
As it turned out, the state project collapsed in our face and Ruto won the contest, albeit with a very slight margin.
A similar situation a year earlier had manifested in Zambia where the entire Fourth Estate fraternity mobilised the populace to vote for incumbent Edgar Lungu to whom they gave a rating of more than 90 per cent, instead of Opposition leader Hakainde? Hichilema.
Hungary witnessed the same trend early this year. Former Prime Minister Victor Orban’s Fidesz party lost in April to the pro-Western Tisza party although Orban was still reelected party leader.
Since 2022, the media has refused to view Ruto from different binoculars. The President is still portrayed through the prisms of corruption, incompetence, disingenuity, dishonesty and other negative qualities.
Although opinion polls still place Ruto slightly ahead as the pack leader in the battle for the House on the Hill after the August 10, 2027 election, talk shows in broadcast media and mainstream print continually display him as the inevitable loser.
I stick out my neck to predict a Ruto win next year.
Not because Ruto is the most popular or cleverest politician town. But simply because he lacks a credible opponent to challenge him at the ballot.
He has also done some tangible work to back his reelection bid.
In the Equalisation Fund, universal healthcare, infrastructure, education, housing and sports, the Ruto regime has made remarkable strides and left unmistakable footprints, although bad publicity still mars the or reputation? of the Social Health Authority and affordable housing.
The once highly heralded Hustler Fund seems to have fizzled out, it is neither here nor there.
That notwithstanding, whichever way one looks at it, Ruto does not have a serious challenger at the moment. He is very unlikely to have one by next August, especially if we soberly cast our nets beyond ethnic barometers.
What is more, those who have tossed their hats in the ring have so far not explained themselves to the electorate and laid out why they want to run for the presidency.
Save for the collective sloganeering to remove Ruto from office, they have not presented any agenda that pushes the incumbent’s agenda and achievements to the back burner.
In 2024, after Kalonzo Musyoka was invited to Raila's Bondo home as the guest of honour during the 80th birthday of Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, I have more than once stated the former vice-president needed to start packaging himself as the most formidable opposition leader and presidential candidate
Kalonzo dilly-dallied. Raila died. Other figures have since cropped up to compete with him to be the anti-Ruto standard bearer.
Kalonzo aside, today the opposition has attracted impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, former Justice Minister Martha Karua, former Attorney-General Justin Muturi, former Chief Justice David Kenani Maraga, rights activist Boniface Mwangi, former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa, businessman Jimi Wanjigi, lawyer George Wajackoya, gospel artiste Reuben Kigame and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i ¾ with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna the newest kid on the block.
For the longest time, Wanjigi has refused to transform himself into a top-tier presidential candidate. He remains a television and podcast aspirant.
The former aide to former VP George Saitoti says all the right stuff about politics, governance and democracy. But it ends there. He has consistently failed to roll up his sleeves and join other opposition figures in the trenches, preferring instead to operate through a galaxy of proxies.
That has allowed rookies to jump over him and start sharing meals with elders. Today, many people still don’t consider Wanjigi a serious contender.
Former CJ Maraga is respected for being a stickler for constitutionalism. He earned world acclaim in September 2017 when his court overturned the election of President Uhuru Kenyatta, citing irregularities and illegalities, in a move that necessitated a repeat election a year later. But his achievements do not go beyond that.
Since announcing his bid, Matiang'i has generally conducted himself reasonably well with much decorum and restraint, however, his past as Interior Minister leaves him in an abhorrent corner due to excesses by security forces.
To his credit, Gachagua has sliced the entire populous Kikuyu vote from the Ruto political lump.
However, the militant tribalistic anti-Ruto brickbats he hurls daily have only helped to rally a majority of the other communities behind Ruto. More than anyone else and any other reason, the DCP leader is the one person massively helping Ruto to gain support from other parts of the country outside of the former DP's Murima base.
That cannot be good news for the opposition at all.
Karua, a former Justice Minister, is many things to many people. She will never erase the unfortunate events at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre in December 2007 when the victory of ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga was stolen in favour of then-incumbent Mwai Kibaki. That paved the way for unprecedented genocide.
Two years ago, it was widely reported in the media that President Ruto was constructing a state-of-the-art mega church at State House, using Sh1.2 billion of taxpayers’ money.
The media has since gone silent on that subject. What happened?
Last year, it was also widely reported that soldiers from the Somali autonomous federal state of Jubaland had invaded parts of Northeastern where they had pitched tent and were calling the shots in the region, leading to closure of schools.
That subject has also disappeared from the media. Again, what happened?
Does anyone ask why Ruto likes addressing the public from the sunroofs of his cars? Aware of the media propaganda against him, he prefers to take his message directly to the electorate, I do believe.
It will not surprise me when Ruto wins the next general election in round one.
Veteran journalist and strategic communications adviser, [email protected]
