Kenya is once again edging towards a dangerous political precipice.
Inflammatory rhetoric, goonism and the disruption of political meetings are raising fears that the country could be sleepwalking towards another cycle of electoral violence.
The warning could not come at a more critical moment.
The Kofi Annan Foundation has placed Kenya’s risk of electoral-related violence in 2027 at more than 84.1 per cent.
At least four people were killed and several others injured after violence rocked a Linda Mwanachi rally in Homa Bay county.
Some leaders have been accused of inciting the violence to block the Linda Mwananchi team from campaigning in the area.
Former National Cohesion and Integration Commissioncommissioner Danvas Makori told the Star that all signals of violence in 2027.
“There's still going to be violence, but it's mostly going to be class-related, which to me is more dangerous,” he warned.
The warning comes against a worrying backdrop of politicians increasingly testing the limits of inflammatory language with the country heading into a tightly fought presidential contest.
Nearly all recent opinion polls have shown that none of the leading presidential contenders, including President William Ruto, would win the election in the first round.
A runoff is likely to trigger more political tension in the country.
The latest controversy involves UDA-nominated MP Joseph Wainaina.
The MP issued a chilling message, warning members of a particular community in the Rift Valley that there would be consequences based on how they vote in 2027.
The MP is yet to be arrested or summoned despite public storm.
Jubilee secretary general Moitalel ole Kenta described Wainaina’s comments as “reckless”, “divisive” and “dangerous”.
In recent months, several high profile leaders including Cabinet Secretaries have been accused of ethnic profiling and excitement.
Among the leaders include Health CS Aden Duale and his Public Service counterpart Geoffrey Ruku.
Others are Mukurweini MP John Kaguchia, Democracy for Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua, Senate Majority leader Aaron Cheruiyot and Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma.
Duale and Gachagua have defied NCIC summons for months now.
Ruku and Kaluma were however grilled by the agency on Tuesday and Monday respectively.
For a country that paid a heavy price in the 2007-08 post-election violence, the developments carry an uncomfortable familiarity.
The violence that followed the disputed 2007 election did not emerge from nowhere.
There were warnings, inflammatory political messages and signs of growing ethnic hostility before the country descended into bloodshed.
Kenta challenged the NCIC, Directorate of Criminal Investigations and the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions to investigate Wainaina.
“It is incitement dressed up in the language of political loyalty, and it has no place in our public discourse, not from a backbencher, not from a governor, not from a member of Parliament, and certainly not from anyone who sits in the National Assembly,” Kenta said.
Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba demanded the arrest of Wainaina and Duale.
She called Wainaina’s remarks “a dangerous route” and warned that political leaders had no right to dictate which candidate a community should support.
Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro also condemned the remarks, urging politicians to seek votes through persuasion rather than threats and intimidation.
Religious leaders also warned against the trajectory and called for action.
Dr Nelson Makanda, vice chancellor of Africa International University, said that, at the very least, those propagating hate and violence should face the law.
“Action should be taken by the relevant authorities — the NCIC, DCI and the National Police Service as a whole — to explain their remarks in court. This will provide deterrence,” Makanda said.
He warned that if unchecked, incitement could escalate on social media, placing the country “in a dangerous place”.
That warning is particularly significant as political rhetoric is increasingly amplified online, reaching audiences far beyond the rallies and meetings where such remarks are made.
The May report by Code for Africa found that Facebook, TikTok and X had become key spaces for ethnic and exclusionary narratives.
The report warned that social media is “increasingly being weaponised to fuel fear, mistrust, and digital polarisation”, with isolated incidents being used to “stigmatise entire communities”.
Makanda said government agencies should work together despite NCIC’s lack of prosecutorial powers, and urged the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to bar politicians found culpable of incitement.
Rev Canon Chris Kamau, the general secretary of the National Council of Churches of Kenya, said that most politicians cited for hate speech were Christians.
They had effectively broken both Christ’s teachings and the law, Kinyanjui said.
“Jesus Christ doesn’t teach us to slander others and preach hate speech. Freedom of speech also doesn’t allow for hate mongering,” he told the Star.
Kinyanjui attributed the rhetoric to panic among politicians as the 2027 contest draws closer.
“The panic is real and the politicians are now facing the reality of facing their constituents. But we are urging for calm. Even if they lose, they will have an opportunity to seek office another time,” he said.
The Kenya Commission on Human Rights has also warned that recent developments echo the triggers of the 2007 violence.
“NCIC was as a result of that period and despite its mandate, there are limitations. For instance, what amounts to hate speech?” Ernest Cornel, the commission’s communications and advocacy, said head.
He added that political language was evolving and existing definitions and lists of hate speech needed regular updating.
Cornel called for Parliament to strengthen NCIC’s mandate and independence, but warned that appointments would remain a concern if commissioners were politically influenced.
Uasin Gishu and North Rift leaders have also called for action against Wainaina.
Huruma MCA Kimani Wanjohi urged NCIC to summon and investigate him, warning that inflammatory rhetoric could reopen the wounds of the 2007-08 post-election violence.
Former Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri similarly cautioned against language that could reignite ethnic tensions.
“It is heart-breaking to hear such words from a nominated MP, speaking in Eldoret — a place I have always said is home to a great diaspora of Kikuyu people who have built their lives, their businesses, and their families there over generations,” Ngunjiri said.
“A nomination to Parliament is a call to build bridges, not to burn them. It is a call to unite communities, not to threaten them with the very people who share their blood.”
Wainaina, however, has rejected the accusations, saying he was misquoted and that his remarks were taken out of context.
In a social media post, he said he lost his father during the 2007-08 post-election violence and could therefore not advocate ethnic confrontation.
The controversy adds to a growing list of inflammatory statements as Kenya enters an increasingly tense election cycle.
The Law Society of Kenya has also opened a review of remarks attributed to Kaguchia and Kaluma, warning that political office does not shield advocates from their professional and ethical obligations.
The disruption of political meetings by goons is also becoming a worrying feature of the emerging political contest
The IEBC has separately warned that politicians who use hate speech, ethnic mobilisation or violence could face sanctions, including disqualification from the 2027 election.
But the capacity of these institutions to act consistently when the offenders are politically powerful remains a concern.
While NCIC has been talking tough, enforcement has been slow and, critics argue, appears selective or politically influenced, undermining the deterrent effect of the law.
Further, critics, especially within the opposition ranks, have questioned the impartiality of the DCI, particularly when investigations involve political actors aligned with the broad-based government.
Kinyanjui said the handling of Kaguchia’s arrest illustrated those concerns, arguing that unnecessary force was used.
“We, however, didn’t see the same with Opondo Kaluma,” he said.
