NDICU: Singapore prophecy: Why Ruto is asking Kenya to believe again

PresidentWilliamRutohasdevelopedafondnessforSingapore. HeinvokestheAsiancity-stateas evidenceofwhatdisciplineddevelopmentcanachieve.Thecomparison,however,invitesan obvious objection.

Kenya is not Singapore. One is a sprawling East African country of more than 50 million people; the other a compact entrepôt. Their histories, politics and economic circumstances at Independence were hardly identical.

Buttakingthecomparisonliterallymissesitspurpose.ThePresidentisnotreallyproposingthat KenyabecomesSingapore.HeisaskingusKenyanstobelieveourcountrycanaccomplish something that, from the vantage point of the present, looks improbable. Singapore is less a blueprint than a presidentialprophecy.

Yes! Kenya has heard such presidential prophecies before. Indeed, its post-colonial history can be read as a succession of three development frontiers: first, the struggle for sovereignty and land; then, the accumulation of human capital; and now, the harder task of building the infrastructure and institutions capable of synergistically combining our land and people into prosperity.

First,theland

BeforeKenyacouldargueaboutdevelopment,ithadtobecomeKenya.

ColonialismdidnotmerelydenyAfricanspoliticalsovereignty.Landalienation,particularlyinthe fertilecentralhighlands,becameoneofcolonialKenya'sdeepestgrievances.Theindependence generation therefore had to imagine something the distribution of power made improbable: a countrygovernedbyKenyans, in which Africans would exercise political rights and regain greater control over the land on which their livelihoods depended.

Thecolonialstatepossessedoverwhelminginstitutionalandmilitarypower.Yetthe Independence struggledrewstrengthfromsomethingnoarsenalcouldmeasure:theconvictionthatcolonialrule was not permanent.

Thatconviction –theclamourfor“uhuru”–wasitselfanationalprophecy.Beforeindependenceand self-governmentcouldbecomeconstitutionalrealities,Kenyansfirsthadtoimaginethemas possibilities.TheyhadtobelieveinafreeKenyabeforetherecouldbeafreeKenya.

JomoKenyattacametoembodythatnationalaspiration.Hispresidentialprophecyhadatwo-stage proposition:firstliberation,thennation-building.Fromthestruggleforland andpoliticalfreedom, hearticulatedalargerpromise:thatKenyanswouldreclaimnotonlytheircountry,butalsothe powertoshapeitsfuture.Independencethereforerepresentedmorethanthetransferofpolitical authority.

Itrestedonafoundingproposition—thatKenyanswouldnolongerbesubjectsin somebody else’s political order, but citizens charged with building a nation of their own. His clarion call, Harambee, gave that proposition its post-independence expression: freedom had been won; now Kenyan patriots had to pull together to make something of it.

Thefirstfrontierwassovereigntyandownership.Itconcernedthegroundbeneathourfeet.

Independenceimmediatelyexposedanotherscarcity;a sovereigncountryrequirespeoplecapableof runningit.Kenyaneededteachers,doctors,engineers,accountants,lawyers,administrators, scientists and entrepreneurs. The national project therefore shifted from recovering political control to accumulating human capability.

PresidentDanielarapMoidistilledthisambitionintoaphrasethatbecamepartofthenational vernacular of a generation raised in the Kenya of the 1980s and 1990s: “Educationisthekey.”

Likemanypresidentialslogans,itriskedbecomingacliché.Buteducationbecameoneofthemost visibleinvestmentsoftheMoiera.Schoolsmultiplied,universitiesexpanded,andcommunities mobilised through harambee. President Moi made education conspicuousin the presidency itself, becoming the chancellor of all public universities and a familiar presence at university graduations and education-related events.

Hispoliticallegacy is,ofcourse,muchmorecomplicatedthanthis.Butcountries,likepeople,can inherit useful institutions from imperfect eras.

Moididnotdoitalone;parentssoldcattle,cultivatedadditionalacres,andworkedextrahardtopay schoolfees.Communitiesbuiltclassrooms.Teachersworkedwithlimitedresources.Students persevered and burned the midnight oil studying. The investment accumulated slowly, and its returns took decades to become apparent.

Thesignificanceofthatvisionwasnotobviousatthetime,butinretrospect,ithasearneditsplace asapresidentialprophecy,asKenyandoctors,academics,engineers,accountants,financiers,and technologists can be found from Nairobi to London, Johannesburg, Toronto, Dubai, and New York.

Educationdidindeedbecomeakey.ItopenedthevillagetothecityandtheworldforKenyans. Moreconsequentially,itopenedKenyato,andfor,theworld.

Kenya'seducateddiasporaissimultaneouslyameasureofnationalachievementandevidenceofan unresolved problem.

Now,buildfor prosperity

Successineducationproducedaparadox.Whathappenswhenacountrydevelopsglobally competitivepeoplefasterthanitdevelopsopportunitiesforthem?

Anengineerneedsmorethanadegree;sheneedsindustriesinwhichengineeringknowledgecan becomeproductive.Ascientistneedslaboratories.Anentrepreneurneedscapital,electricity, transport, digital connectivity and customers. A manufacturer needs reliable energy, efficient logistics and predictable regulation.

Aneducatedpopulationalsoneedssomethinglessobvioustotheeye:competentinstitutionsand values.Withoutthem,contractsbecomeuncertain,investmentbecomesriskier,infrastructure deteriorates, and public money produces less than it should. Worse, countries elsewhere capture the return on Kenya's investment in education by employing the people Kenya spent decades training.

Whathappenswhenacountrysystematicallycombineshumancapital,infrastructure, capable institutions and access to global markets?

Singaporeprovidesoneunusuallycompellinganswer.

Withinafewgenerations,avulnerablecity-statewithfewnaturalresourcesbecameacentreof manufacturing,logistics,finance,technologyandinvestment.Itsachievementoffersdeveloping countries something more useful than a development slogan: proofthatnationaltrajectoriescan change.

ThatisSingapore'srealexport,which,whenviewedagainstthishistory,makesPresidentRuto’s invocation of Singapore look less like a fixation than the latest expression of an old Kenyan political tradition: asking the country to believe in a future that does not yet seem possible.

Kenya'sthreefrontiers

Seenthisway, Kenya's post-Independence development hasa certainlogic ortrajectory that requires truepatriotsandvisionariesifitistoberealised;

Kenyatta'sgenerationconfrontedownership: Canthiscountrytrulybelongtous?

Moi'seraemphasisedcapability: Canourchildrenacquiretheknowledgenecessarytocompetewithanyone?

Ruto'sgenerationconfrontsproductivity: Can Kenya build the infrastructure and institutions necessary to turn its land, human capital and enterprise into prosperityathome?

Ineconomicterms,theprogressionrunsfromnaturalassetstohumancapitalandthentophysical andinstitutionalcapital.Noneissufficientbyitselfbecauselandwithoutknowledgecanremain unproductive.Knowledgewithoutopportunitymigrates.Infrastructurewithoutskilledpeople becomes expensive concrete. Institutions without competence decay.

But combining land, educated people, infrastructure, enterprise and capable institutions multiplies the possibilities. This is hardly a new Kenyan insight.

JaramogiOgingaOdingatitledhisautobiographyNotYetUhurubecause,inhisview,political independence, momentous though it was, did not complete the work of liberation. The justifiable end was his imagination of a Kenya capable of “enterprise and development in fields beyond our shambas”.

Six decadeslater,thephraseremains strikinglycontemporary.Politicaluhuruwasoneachievement. Economic capability is another. In that sense, the journey from Kenyatta's land, through Moi's classroom, to Ruto's infrastructure is less a sequence of presidential projects than a series of chapters in an unfinished argument about what Independence is ultimately about.