President William Ruto during a meeting with artisans and mechanics from Nairobi County at State House, Nairobi, on July 23, 2026 /PCSIt is still too early to give an objective scorecard of the Ruto's administration, however, it appears that how he and state institutions handle the country's security could play an outsized role when the final verdict on his term is rendered.
Despite the incessant political noise that has characterised the past four years, which is normal in any democracy, the President seems laser-focused on implementing his key projects and driving through his policies.
He is driving affordable housing and healthcare reforms, massive infrastructure initiatives countrywide and raising Kenya's international profile. The administration has largely avoided distraction.
The travel destinations of the political class and sections of the educated elite, both employed and unemployed, suggest that all the administration’s gains could go up in smoke if the security situation is not brought under control.
The menace of thuggery, whitewashed with the fashionable label of "goonism", has dominated public discourse, yet little meaningful action has been taken to end it.
Young men continue to be openly organised and patronised to disrupt political meetings by both sides of the political divide, often leaving ordinary citizens injured while those who sponsor the violence escape accountability.
The government's hands appear tied or unwilling, despite the President's recent directive ordering the police to confront the problem to the full extent of the law.
Anyone who follows current affairs understands why. Some of the government's own political operatives have, in the past, mobilised these very young men with money, armed them with crude weapons and deployed them to disrupt public protests while shielding themselves from accountability.
The recent by-election in Ol Kalou illustrated the problem vividly. Hooded men carrying firearms disembarked from top-of-the-range vehicles and unleashed violence and intimidation in broad daylight, seemingly doing the government's bidding. The government denies involvement.
The opposition is far from blameless. Many of its leaders have also cultivated networks of goons to protect their political interests and project strength. Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino recently declared publicly that they would use every means necessary to protect themselves.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has repeatedly made inflammatory remarks, including urging international tourists and investors to stay away from Kenya until after he becomes president.
He has also consistently made ethnically charged statements that can easily be interpreted as incitement.
History offers an uncomfortable warning. These developments increasingly resemble the dangerous political climate that preceded the 2007 general election, a period that remains one of the darkest chapters in Kenya's history.
The disputed election claimed more than 1,300 lives and displaced nearly 600,000 people as communities turned against one another after years of ethnic incitement and chauvinism by politicians seeking for power.
Criminal gangs were weaponised to identify, profile and attack members of communities portrayed as responsible for local or national grievances.
President Ruto invites comparisons with President Kibaki in that respect. Like Kibaki before him, he has overseen important economic reforms, pursued bold policy choices and expanded development into long-neglected regions.
Kibaki's first term was marked by major achievements, including free primary education and economic liberalisation. Yet for all the progress made under his watch, he failed to confront the growing culture of political thuggery before the election.
Whether because his hands were tied or because politicians within his coalition relied on gangs to mobilise support, the state allowed dangerous networks to flourish until they spiralled out of control.
Many would argue that elements within Ruto's camp are repeating the same mistake in pursuit of a second term, seemingly oblivious to the danger they pose to the country's future.
President Ruto would be better served by aggressively confronting politicians known for inflammatory rhetoric or for maintaining networks of violent gangs, even if they are acting in what they consider the head of state’s interest. Arrest the young men, charge them in court and secure stiff sentences to serve as a deterrent.
More importantly, investigate and prosecute the politicians and state officials who finance, organise and direct these groups. Unless those issuing the orders are held accountable, the cycle will continue.
Goonism and rising insecurity ultimately undermine President Ruto's own interests. Even if he were to lose the 2027 election, he has already secured his place in history as Kenya's fifth president.
His greater responsibility now is to protect the legacy he leaves behind, not allow it to be overshadowed by political violence and bloodshed.
Despite Kibaki's many economic achievements, one of the strongest memories associated with his presidency remains the post-election violence of 2007-08 and the failures of political leadership that allowed it to happen. President Ruto should not leave behind a similar legacy.
A country aspiring to attain high-income status within the next few decades must begin acting like one.
That starts with professionalising law enforcement, strengthening the rule of law and ending the use of hired gangs to police and disrupt political meetings and intimidate opponents for political gain.
No nation can build lasting prosperity while tolerating organised political violence as an instrument of politics.
