Kenyan by‑elections often reveal more than they resolve. They may fill a vacant parliamentary seat, but they also function as mid‑term political thermometers — brief moments when the country signals its mood and recalibrates its loyalties.
Ol Kalou is no exception. Yet the loudest interpretation of this race — that President William Ruto was somehow humiliated by Rigathi Gachagua’s assertiveness — is not only simplistic, it misses the deeper strategy at play.
Those convinced that Gachagua “outshone” Ruto misunderstand how power works at the top. If anything, this is precisely the outcome Ruto wanted.
In the regime’s calculation, the DCP leader’s victory in Ol Kalou inflates his ego, feeds his sense of regional indispensability and encourages him to believe he can dictate the terms of opposition unity.
And that is where the trap lies—or at least they so hope in the sense that they think a Gachagua who feels politically enlarged becomes a Gachagua who is almost impossible for the opposition to negotiate with.
But Gachagua is smarter, and his wantam battle-cry is real.
As the united opposition principles keep reminding everyone, we essentially must have a repeat of 2002 if not better by having the opposition rallying behind a single presidential candidate in 2027. Put another way, the opposition cannot afford a scenario where one man’s ego becomes the veto over the entire project.
There’s a consensus out there there’s really only one candidate in the opposition who can trounce Ruto come 2027 but there has also been uncertainty whether that’s the same candidate Gachagua prefers. In due time, this should be settled.
Those within the opposition who genuinely want to ensure Ruto does not return to State House must not lose sight of this. They must understand that Ol Kalou is not just a by‑election — it is a carefully laid chess move. And Ruto is playing the long game.
There are several signals pointing to this strategy. No need to enumerate them; the patterns are visible to anyone paying attention. What matters is that the opposition recognises the trap and refuses to walk into it.
Because Gachagua’s victory could easily become a Pyrrhic victory if that realisation is not reached but there’s every indication it has been reached and there’s no turning back.
For the former DP, the lesson is straightforward: Do not let the regime try to shove and position you as the unwitting spoiler for the victory on hand for the opposition, once all of you principals gather by the kitchen table and nail this thing down as to who should be the flagbearer for the united opposition.
If his true motivation is wantam, unity and not personal ambition, then he must play a fair, sober, and well‑strategised game. Anything less strengthens Ruto and going by the man I met and had a chat with when he was visiting the US, I am confident that he knows this and will do the right thing.
Meanwhile, something else is quietly taking shape within the opposition — something far more promising.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s work with Linda Mwananchi is beginning to resemble the kind of citizen‑anchored mobilisation Kenya has not seen in decades.
If he continues on this path, with full support from across the opposition, he could become Raila Odinga’s 2027 version of Kibaki Tosha.
And what an irony that would be: Raila’s own mentee doing for another candidate what Raila did for Kibaki in 2002 — only this time in a far more complicated electoral landscape.
Crucially, Sifuna’s moves should worry no one who supports or wishes Fred Matiang’i well in 2027. If anything, they strengthen the broader ecosystem in which the former Interior CS’s candidacy could thrive. Unity does not threaten him; it amplifies him.
True, it can be confusing to the general public when they see things happening that seem to suggest that this or that candidate has lost direction or needs to do things differently.
However, what is often the case, the public is not off in having those thoughts or expressing them. Rather, where they miss and it’s important to know this, never guess a second presidential candidate with the intellect, astuteness and brains around him a candidate such as Matiang’i has.
