Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto during his official visit to the country on July 30, 2025 / YOWERI MUSEVENI X
President Yoweri Museveni’s victory in Uganda’s January 15 election is statistically impossible, according to an analysis by civil rights groups led by the Kenya Human Rights Commission.

The groups also condemned the chorus of congratulations that has continued since Museveni was declared the winner of the January 15 election.

In its analysis, the Nairobi-based KHRC and its partners said the election result could only have been achieved through an AI algorithm and was humanly impossible.

It accused Uganda’s Electoral Commission of inflating the national voter roll to match the ruling party’s claims.

“The Electoral Commission inflated the National Voter Register to 21.6 million voters,” the statement said. “This kind of growth is not only statistically impossible but also grossly fraudulent.”

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It was signed by Pan-African Solidarity Network, a coalition of regional civil society leaders and was released by the KHRC.

The register lists far more voters than Uganda can realistically have. Civil society audits cited in the statement found duplicate names, deceased persons, minors, and fictional voters. Some individuals allegedly appeared dozens of times on the register. The KHRC said this artificial expansion created room to manufacture votes.

The second pillar of the alleged manipulation is what the KHRC called the preset target, where Museveni’s camp allegedly fixed the final percentage before voting took place.

“This was a coronation by calculation, not a count,” the statement says. “The announced results are the product of centralised forgery.”

KHRC explained that Museveni had repeatedly claimed millions of votes were stolen from him in the previous election. In 2026, the final margin mirrors those claims almost exactly, which means the numbers were reverse-engineered. The KHRC said this numerical symmetry cannot happen naturally. It argues that only an algorithm could produce such a precise outcome.

KHRC explained that in early 2025, Museveni claimed that Bobi Wine had robbed him of 1,000,000 votes in the 2021 elections.

It further quoted Museveni, who in November 2025 increased his claim to 2,700,000 votes.

“In 2021, Yoweri Museveni claimed 6,042,898 while Bobi Wine was given 3,631,437. Here, Museveni gave himself a margin of 2,411,461 votes. In the 2026 elections, Yoweri Museveni claimed 7,946,772 votes against Bobi Wine’s 2,741,238 votes,” the statement says.

“The margin this time round is 5,205,534 votes. The difference between the two margins—2,411,461 of 2021 and 5,205,534 of 2026—is 2,794,073, the exact figure which Museveni says he was robbed by in the last elections. This can only be possible by a special algorithm of a predetermined result.”

President William Ruto was among the first leaders to congratulate Museveni shortly after the results were announced.

Ruto praised the conduct of the election and said it reflected the will of Ugandans. His message emphasised stability and regional cooperation.

“Your decisive victory at the just-concluded competitive General Election reflects the trust that the people of the Republic of Uganda have in your personal leadership and the confidence enjoyed by the NRM party. I am certain your re-election reinvigorates Your Excellency's resolve to accelerate the transformation of your country,” Ruto said.

He continued:

“Dear Brother, our two countries enjoy deep fraternal bonds, which will no doubt benefit from your unwavering commitment. I reaffirm the readiness of the Government of the Republic of Kenya to work with Your Excellency to advance our shared priorities for the mutual socio-economic benefit of the citizens of Kenya and Uganda as well as our region and the continent.”

KHRC also condemned the East African Community Election Observer Mission for not calling out the electoral malpractices.

“We condemn your utter failure to uphold the values of the EAC Treaty,” the statement says. “Your findings are a sanitised whitewashing of a military occupation.”

The group said the mission ignored violence, abductions, and daylight ballot stuffing. It demands an immediate retraction of the observer report.

The statement also rebuked the African Union for congratulating Museveni. It said doing so endorsed repression.