Four years into President William Ruto’s administration, one of his most prominent agricultural interventions remains the fertiliser subsidy introduced within days of his inauguration in September 2022.
Ruto came to office promising to move Kenya away from what he described as costly consumption subsidies towards interventions that would lower the cost of production, increase food output and ultimately reduce the cost of living.
Agriculture was at the centre of that strategy.
At his inauguration on September 13, 2022, Ruto announced that 1.4 million 50-kilogramme bags of fertiliser would be made available to farmers at a subsidised price of Sh3,500, down from about Sh6,500.
“The cost of living challenges are related to production. Our strategy to bring down the cost of living is predicated on empowering producers,” Ruto said at the time.
He said Kenya’s maize harvest was projected at below 30 million bags that year, compared with normal production of about 40 million bags, blaming the decline partly on the high cost of farm inputs.
“Our priority intervention therefore, is to make fertiliser, good-quality seeds and other agricultural inputs affordable and available,” he said.
The intervention has since expanded considerably, with the subsidised price falling further to Sh2,500 and the government increasing the number of farmers receiving subsidised inputs.
But has cheaper fertiliser translated into higher production?
The available data points to a significant recovery in agricultural output, particularly maize, although the numbers also show that weather, acreage and other factors remain critical to determining how much Kenya produces.
Comparing fertiliser prices
Ruto’s fertiliser reforms began almost immediately after he assumed office, although the subsidy itself was not a new concept.
The previous administration had also subsidised fertiliser, and by April 2022 the government had allocated about Sh5.73 billion to reduce the price of fertiliser, including DAP, to about Sh2,800 per 50-kilogramme bag.
Ruto’s first major intervention came on September 13, 2022, when he announced a price of Sh3,500 per 50-kilogramme bag, down from roughly Sh6,500 at the time.
The first batch was distributed through National Cereals and Produce Board depots from September 19, with the government allocating about Sh3.55 billion for 1.42 million bags.
The reform was subsequently expanded.
In August 2023, Ruto announced that the price would be reduced further to Sh2,500 per 50-kilogramme bag.
By 2024, the government said it had distributed 8.6 million bags, compared with 1.4 million in 2022.
Ruto has since announced another reduction.
In August 2026, he said the price would fall from Sh2,500 to Sh2,000 and that maize seed would also be subsidised by 50 per cent.
“I am making an announcement to all our farmers that from next month (September), in the next two weeks, we are going to subsidise maize seeds by 50% and reduce the cost of fertiliser by another 500 shillings,” Ruto said.
“So that the bag that was selling at 2,500 is going to be sold at 2,000 from the next two weeks.”
The scale of the programme has therefore changed substantially since 2022.
The reform has also involved farmer registration and digital targeting.
By 2024, the government said more than six million farmers had been registered, allowing it to identify beneficiaries and distribute inputs through a more targeted system.
Building on earlier fertiliser subsidy initiatives, the Ruto administration significantly expanded the programme, lowering prices further and widening access through increased distribution and digital farmer registration.
The distinguishing feature of Ruto’s approach has been the scale of the subsidy, the reduction in the retail price and the expansion of farmer registration.
Comparing acreage
The increase in agricultural production has also been accompanied by an increase in the area under maize.
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, maize was cultivated on about 2.11 million hectares in 2022.
That increased to approximately 2.43 million hectares in 2023, an increase of about 15 per cent.
The area declined slightly to 2.41 million hectares in 2024, but remained considerably above the 2022 level.
The increase is important when assessing the impact of cheaper fertiliser.
It means the rise in production cannot be explained entirely by farmers producing more from the same piece of land. More land was also brought under maize cultivation.
KNBS data shows maize production stood at 34.25 million 90-kilogramme bags in 2022. It then increased to 47.61 million bags in 2023 before falling to 44.76 million bags in 2024.
The acreage figures show a clear expansion following the introduction of the new subsidy programme.
Comparing yields
The increase in production was not only a result of more land being planted.
Maize yields also improved between 2022 and 2023.
Based on KNBS production and acreage figures, average maize output rose from roughly 1.46 tonnes per hectare in 2022 to about 1.76 tonnes per hectare in 2023.
That represented a substantial improvement.
However, yields subsequently declined to approximately 1.67 tonnes per hectare in 2024.
The figures illustrate both the potential and the limitations of the fertiliser intervention.
The 2023 increase coincided with the expanded fertiliser subsidy, but it also followed the severe drought that had affected the country in 2022.
Better rainfall in 2023 therefore played a major role in the recovery.
KNBS attributed the broader agricultural recovery in 2023 to government interventions, including the fertiliser subsidy programme, as well as favourable weather conditions.
Agricultural output therefore cannot be attributed to cheaper fertiliser alone.
The subsequent decline in maize production and yields in 2024, despite continued subsidised fertiliser, further demonstrates the importance of weather.
This remains one of the biggest challenges facing Ruto’s agricultural agenda.
Comparing food production
Kenya’s agricultural sector contracted by 2.3 per cent in 2022 after recording a marginal decline of 0.3 per cent in 2021.
The picture changed dramatically in 2023.
According to KNBS, the agriculture sector grew by seven per cent, before expanding by another 4.6 per cent in 2024.
Maize production increased by 38.8 per cent between 2022 and 2023, while rice production rose by 19.1 per cent.
Tea production also increased, while other subsectors recorded mixed results.
The National Agriculture Production Report for 2025 shows that maize remained Kenya’s dominant crop in 2024, covering about 2.41 million hectares and producing approximately 4.03 million tonnes.
Beans were cultivated on about 1.23 million hectares and produced approximately 759,000 tonnes.
Irish potatoes produced about 2.15 million tonnes from 226,000 hectares, while cassava produced approximately 1.21 million tonnes from just 82,000 hectares.
Other agricultural value chains also recorded gains.
Coffee production increased by 1.8 per cent in 2024 to 49,500 tonnes, while the area under coffee rose from about 111,900 hectares to 113,500 hectares.
Tea production increased by 4.9 per cent to 598.5 million kilogrammes in 2024.
Sugar recorded one of the most dramatic recoveries, with production rising by 72.5 per cent from 472,800 tonnes in 2023 to 815,500 tonnes in 2024.
Milk production has also increased. The government has said production rose from 4.6 billion litres in 2022 to about 5.2 billion litres in 2024, while the New KCC guaranteed price increased from Sh37 to Sh50 per litre.
However, not every agricultural subsector improved.
Horticulture recorded mixed results in 2024, with the total value of horticultural exports falling by 12.9 per cent to Sh136.6 billion. Vegetable production and exports were particularly affected by market and regulatory challenges.
The figures therefore point to an agricultural sector that has recovered and expanded in several areas, rather than a uniform transformation across all value chains.
Comparing food imports
Perhaps, the clearest indication that increased domestic production may be translating into greater food self-sufficiency is the decline in some food imports.
Maize imports reached about 793,752 tonnes in 2022, according to KNBS, following the drought-induced decline in domestic production.
As production recovered, imports declined.
KNBS reported that maize imports fell by 39.1 per cent in 2024 to about 309,300 tonnes, attributing the reduction mainly to increased domestic production and favourable weather.
The government has also reported a decline in maize imports, saying imports equivalent to about 32 million 50-kilogramme bags in 2022 fell to roughly 21 million bags in 2023.
Ruto has repeatedly linked the reduction to his production-focused approach.
In his 2025 State of the Nation Address, he said the government was working to reduce Kenya’s reliance on imported maize, sugar, edible oil, rice and wheat.
He also identified rain-fed agriculture as one of the biggest obstacles to food security.
“We can no longer allow the clouds to determine whether our people eat or not. If we are to produce enough for domestic consumption and exports, expanded modern irrigation is now necessary and the only path forward,” he said.
His response has been to push for greater investment in irrigation.
He announced plans for at least 50 mega dams, 200 medium and small dams and thousands of micro dams, with a target of putting at least 2.5 million acres under irrigation within five to seven years.
That represents the next stage of the agricultural reform agenda: moving beyond cheap inputs towards increasing the amount of land that can produce food reliably throughout the year.
The import picture, however, remains mixed.
Kenya continues to rely heavily on imported wheat, rice, edible oils and other food commodities.
The government has therefore not eliminated the structural dependence on imports, despite the decline in maize imports.
In edible oils, for example, the administration has promoted sunflower and other oil crops in an effort to replace imports. Sunflower acreage increased from about 60,000 acres in 2022 to nearly 65,000 acres in 2024.
But Kenya still imports large quantities of vegetable and animal fats and oils, demonstrating the scale of the challenge.
So, did the fertiliser reform raise production?
The evidence suggests yes, but not on its own.
The period since Ruto took office has coincided with a substantial fall in the price of subsidised fertiliser, a major expansion in the number of farmers receiving the input, an increase in maize acreage, improved maize yields, a sharp rise in maize production and a subsequent reduction in maize imports.
Those are significant gains.
But the data also shows why the fertiliser subsidy should not be treated as the sole explanation.
The 2023 production surge came after a severe drought in 2022 and coincided with improved rainfall. Maize yields fell again in 2024 despite the continued availability of subsidised fertiliser.
The administration has also had to broaden its strategy.
In his latest State of the Nation Address, Ruto moved the focus towards irrigation, arguing that Kenya must reduce its vulnerability to weather.
The 2026/27 Budget presented by Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi shows that fertiliser subsidies remain central to the strategy.
Treasury proposed Sh64 billion for agriculture, including Sh18 billion for the fertiliser subsidy, Sh2 billion for seed subsidies and funding for agricultural value chains and food-system resilience programmes.
The continued allocation suggests the government does not consider the fertiliser reform complete.
In summary, fertiliser is cheaper than it was when Ruto took office.
More farmers have access to subsidised inputs. Maize acreage and production have risen from the drought-hit 2022 levels, while maize imports have fallen.
Yet yields remain relatively low, food imports remain significant and agricultural production remains heavily exposed to rainfall.
The next test of Ruto’s agricultural reforms will therefore be whether cheaper inputs can be converted into consistently higher yields and production, regardless of the weather.
The President began his agricultural intervention with a promise to make production cheaper.
Four years later, the numbers suggest that the policy has helped increase output.
But the bigger question is whether Kenya can sustain those gains long enough to become genuinely food secure and less dependent on imports.
