The opposition is facing fresh divisions, with key luminaries pulling apart, particularly over how to settle on a single candidate to face President William Ruto in next year's general election.
Two leading presidential candidates in the United Opposition have teamed up with Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, whom DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua and his allies have relentlessly accused of being a government mole.
The latest to join the fold is PLP party leader Martha Karua, who has now teamed up with Jubilee’s Fred Matiang’i.
The three held joint meetings in Njoro, Nakuru county, on Wednesday.
In her speech, Karua fired an indirect salvo at Gachagua, saying he cost them the presidency in the 2022 election, but that they still welcomed him into the fold after his impeachment.
“Others got us in the opposition, and we opened the door so that everyone can enter. No one has permission to lock the other from joining the opposition. Let people continue joining,” Karua said.
The meeting brought together aspirants drawn from the Jubilee Party, the People’s Party of Kenya and the People’s Liberation Party.
“Even on the last day, when the election is tomorrow, we will still have the opposition door open,” she said.
But Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, a staunch Gachagua ally, argued that some of the tough-talking individuals had no political base.
Gathiru said opposition leaders should demonstrate their regional influence before demanding equal status in negotiations.
“For those you see drifting apart, we are asking: have they consolidated their regions? Gachagua has a base, so does Sifuna and Kalonzo. What do the others have to show to be deemed as principals? Who is following them? Sifuna knows who to go to,” he said, referring to Tuesday’s meeting between Gachagua and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
He also questioned Nyoro’s political intentions, suggesting that the lawmaker and Matiang’i could eventually take their ambitions to the ballot.
“Did they [Nyoro] close the business they were doing together with Ruto? How can you fight your business partner?” he posed.
The developments come as Gachagua and his allies express reservations about Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s Ukombozi Alliance.
The Gachagua camp has said it will not join the coalition, a rebranded political outfit previously known as Azimio, which Raila Odinga used in the 2022 election.
The divisions became more apparent following Gachagua’s return to the political scene, when the DCP leader met Sifuna to initiate talks on a possible pact between his party and the Linda Mwananchi faction.
Multiple sources told the Star that the discussions centred on finding a formula for settling on the opposition’s presidential ticket without alienating any of the principals.
The emerging position is that Ukombozi Alliance should join the proposed arrangement, rather than have Gachagua’s camp join Kalonzo’s outfit.
A committee is expected to steer engagement among the parties and work towards an acceptable formula.
“The bottom line is that we are in no rush to name the presidential candidate until February next year,” a source familiar with the discussions told the Star.
The negotiations are unfolding amid growing debate over the relative strength of the Kikuyu and Luhya voting blocs and what their possible alignment could mean for the opposition’s presidential calculations.
The argument is that an alliance bringing the two communities together could complicate Kalonzo’s position in the race for the opposition ticket.
“We are working on how Ruto will go home. It doesn’t matter which formula it will take. You see Sifuna has realised that Mt Kenya voters are with Rigathi Gachagua and that he must seek his blessings,” Gathiru said.
“If we have a combination of Sifuna and our leader Gachagua, it is a done deal, and we will win with 60 per cent. Tuesday’s meeting was a masterstroke.”
Kitui Central MP Makali Mulu, an ally of Kalonzo, said the political manoeuvring was part of a dynamic process in which leaders were positioning themselves ahead of negotiations.
“We are likely to see more of these movements as everybody is trying to get a better position to negotiate from, and to strengthen their bargain,” he said.
“All said and done, we have all agreed that a divided opposition will not beat Ruto.”
Karua on Wednesday joined Nyoro and Matiangi for a meeting with party members in NJoro, Nakuru county, in what spoke to the jostling that is intensifying in the camp.
Ahead of the meeting, Karua defended an open-door policy for opposition politicians amid growing unease among Gachagua allies over the emerging Matiang’i-Nyoro partnership.
She defended the arrangement, arguing that the opposition’s primary objective should be to remove ‘bad governance and replace it with good leadership.’
“What we want is a win while we are united. We must have unity of purpose. And the purpose is to remove bad governance, and replace it with good governance,” she said.
“So we are promoting unity, democracy, and good leadership. And no one has the permission to step on the other in the camp. We must embrace competition.”
Karua acknowledged that she and Matiang’i were both seeking the presidency, but insisted that neither should expect to secure the position without the backing of voters.
“My brother Matiang’i and I are seeking the presidency. But we are not going to give ourselves the presidency, it is the people,” she said.
The PLP leader said the aspirants could share a campaign platform, with the eventual winner receiving the support of the others.
When he hosted Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi team at his Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri county, Gachagua welcomed the group, expressing optimism about cooperation between the two sides.
The meeting which was also attended by Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale and Vihiga Senator Gedfrey Osotsi, signalled an effort to explore common ground between the DCP leader and politicians associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement.
Wiper leaders had paid Gachagua a courtesy call before his US trip, while Kalonzo is expected to visit Wamunyoro.
Deputy party leader Cleophas Malala said DCP and the Linda Mwananchi team will hold a meeting with the Wiper leader to chart a way out.
“After the two meetings, we will be able to craft a way in which one of the three will fly the ticket and the other will deputise the chosen one," Malala said according to press reports.
Karua, however, warned against attempts to police who can belong to the opposition, arguing that political competition should be accommodated within the same camp.
“You can be among our midst but your behaviour is like that of Kasongo,” she said, using the nickname opposition leaders employ for Ruto.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The opposition’s unity remains fragile, fractured by competing ambitions, party vehicles, and regional calculations. While Gachagua and Sifuna are forging a tactical pact, the parallel Matiang’i-Karua-Nyoro alliance has exposed deep rifts, and a divergence of strategy. The jostling over who should absorb whom, alongside fears of government infiltration, threatens to hand President Ruto a crucial advantage.
