If you happen to come from Luo Nyanza, two issues are quietly discussed at the grassroots that may not be publicly apparent to the rest of the nation. The first is that the community is still reeling in shock over the violence in Homa Bay during the August 16 tour of the county by the Linda Mwananchi brigade, just two months ago. Many long-time political actors in the region readily admit they had never seen anything like it before. The spectacle of young men in the community being armed to commit murderous atrocities is quite new, among a people whose culture holds human blood as extremely sacred. That violence involved attacks on Siaya Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino - all Linda Mwananchi leaders allegedly unwelcome on Raila Odinga’s old turf.
The jury is still out over how many people really lost their lives during the violence in the lakeside county on that dark August day. Some estimates place the death toll at four, with more than 50 wounded, although the actual number may never be known. But what is clear is that state agencies exhibited shocking inaction and ineptitude in follow-up action and gave the impression of complicity. The conversation over this indicated that it marked some sort of political turning point for many of the region’s residents, who had hoped that the rising and dangerous goon culture would finally be confronted squarely after the day’s events.
The second, almost-whispered issue within the Luo Nyanza region - and largely unknown to the wider republic - is that retired President Uhuru Kenyatta is widely popular with the masses there. A sneak peek of this may have been provided during Raila’s funeral at Nyayo Stadium in October last year when Uhuru rose to give his tribute but was unable to speak for a few minutes as prolonged cheers reigned. The perennial attempts by the broad-based fraternity to smear the retired President is, in fact, based on his popularity with Raila’s bases.
As far as many grassroots Raila fans are concerned, Uhuru remains one of the greatest friends of the departed icon, backing Raila for president in 2022, extending to the departed ODM boss the national dignity and respect he had sought all his life seeking in vain. Regardless of government propaganda, and broad-based narratives peddling the line that Uhuru actually “played” Raila in a “long con”, Raila’s bases largely remain grateful to Uhuru for attempting to slay the ethnic jinni that had bedevilled the ODM leader’s pursuit of the highest office in the land.
These two issues are important in understanding how events marking the first anniversary of Raila’s death in India ultimately panned out in Bondo. A day before the event, at the Migwena cultural grounds in Bondo constituency, media clips emerged of Raila’s widow Mama Ida Odinga visiting the grounds and urging youth to welcome their guests in peace and without violence.
To which the youths could be heard responding that violence was a “preserve of Homa Bay youths”. Mama Ida then requested the youths to convey to their Homa Bay counterparts that violence wouldn’t be welcome at the function.
It is widely acknowledged that there is a faction within ODM that, as evidenced by the August chaos in Homa Bay, now uses goons as a political tool for control and for carving out little enclaves in the region. In their pockets or territories, they have arrogated to themselves a messianic power to decide which political persuasions can penetrate and which ones cannot. Although Mama Ida did not mention anyone specifically, the Raila family’s discomfort with the goon culture is a microcosm of a feeling across the entire community that the new lords of violence have no place in the land. And the said political lords may have taken the warning against violence merchants as their cue to skip the fete.
However, the invitation of Uhuru and other diverse leaders such as former DP Rigathi Gachagua seemed to have been the straw that broke the back of the broad-based camel. And this may explain the biggest mistake the regime and its broad-based partners in ODM made. For some reason, President William Ruto and his political allies appear to have taken it for granted that the Raila memorial, and everything to do with it, would be an exclusive broad-based extravaganza. It seems Mama Ida’s wise move to return the “spirit” of the departed icon to his friends in all their diversity, hadn’t been foreseen in government circles.
Ruto and the senior ODM leadership ultimately skipped the function in Bondo. Immediately following the event, there was shockingly bitter rhetoric directed at Raila’s widow by government bloggers and certain broad-based leaders. She was caricatured as a sell-out. The disrespect was surprising, given the dignified manner in which Mama Ida has conducted herself throughout the period following the demise of her husband and leading up to the anniversary.
But this contempt also spoke to the government functionaries’ detachment from the pulse of the Odingas. The Odinga clan isn’t easy to manipulate and cage into a political persuasion for long, especially one that comes with regression and repression of rights and justice. It was already too much that a political formation in the country had long sought to use Raila’s memorial as a partisan gathering of birds of the broad-based feather. But aiming to have the Raila family alienate many of his friends from his annual fete, simply to prop up a 2027 presidential campaign, or to help revive the fast-dwindling ODM fortunes, would have been expecting way too much.
Many political commentators may have focused on who was booed or was cheered at Migwena grounds on Thursday last week. Indeed, a lot of the subsequent national conversation revolved around the warm reception received by the Linda Mwananchi brigade, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. But I am persuaded that the real discussion should zoom in on ODM and the state’s failed attempt to exclude other leaders from what was obviously meant to be a cross-cutting ceremony.
This is important, because ODM’s continued practice of divisive politics is what is fuelling its declining popularity in its erstwhile safe zones, including Luoland, where the rise of alternatives like David Ochieng’s MDG is quite evident. And more parties with an eye on the local share of the pie, including Governor James Orengo’s LDP and Babu Owino’s TMP are on the way there, even before you consider Linda Mwananchi’s anticipated push for the Luo base too.
Indeed, the announcement by Raila’s last-born daughter Winnie that she would be running for the Nairobi Senate seat, sought by Phelix Odiwuor alias Jalang’o, immediately sent tongues wagging over which party she may use to achieve this dream. Early bets suggested she would at some point join Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi, especially after she sent a cryptic message by dropping his name into the declaration. If anything, I foresee more than one prominent Odinga running on parties or a party not associated with government.
It is too early to declare an open falling over the Raila memorial. But I can state without fear of contradiction that subsequent to it, there will emerge new political friends and foes, and possibly new political formations ahead of next year’s election. Besides, the widow’s firm stance against goonism and political violence has restored dignity to this anticipated annual event, beyond politics. But more than that, the treatment of Raila’s family after it declined to fashion the fete as partisan political theatre may inform the family’s own political path moving forward. After all, the Odingas do not shy away from bold decisions and paths when the moment calls for it.
