Winnie Odinga during Raila’s first anniversary at Migwena Sports and
Cultural Grounds in Bondo, Siaya county /FAITH MATETE
The declaration by Winnie Odinga to run for Nairobi senator has triggered jitters over which party she intends to ride on to clinch the seat.
Winnie, Raila Odinga’s last-born daughter, used the platform of her father’s first anniversary to declare her intentions to take over from Edwin Sifuna, who has since declared interest in the presidency.
In her declaration, she appeared to send a signal that she was leaning on the Linda Mwananchi side, a move touted as one with the potential of dividing Raila’s house.
This is coming at a time when her brother Raila Jnr has said he is backing President William Ruto’s re-election.
However, it is not clear whether Winnie is going to abandon ODM for her Senate quest, but observers say the events at the anniversary were telling.
The Linda Mwananchi team, led by Sifuna, Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo, had a field day at the commemoration.
Protocol was arranged in a way that saw them speak last, giving them more time to interact with the gathering.
Winnie’s move has opened a fresh debate over the balance of power within ODM and the possible fallout among politicians seeking to control the party’s future.
The question is whether her Senate bid will strengthen the Linda Mwananchi faction or trigger a fight with other leaders who have their own ambitions in Nairobi.
Nominated Senator Karen Nyamu said Winnie’s association with the faction could complicate Babu’s ambitions to become Nairobi governor, especially if the team settles on a political arrangement that favours one community for the city’s top seats.
“If Winnie is going to join Linda Mwananchi, then she will completely destroy Babu Owino. Nairobi is a cosmopolitan city. We cannot have a Luo governor and senator, so where does that leave Babu Owino?” Nyamu said.
She argued that Sifuna could favour Winnie in the Senate race, leaving Babu with a difficult choice as he pursues the governor’s seat.
“I think Sifuna would want to give Winnie the priority, so Babu will be eliminated. We are seeing a fallout in the near future because Babu is not about to just give up his governor ambitions. He is just going to change vehicle,” she said.
Babu, the Embakasi East MP, has been associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement, which has positioned itself as a rallying point for ODM leaders opposed to the party’s continued cooperation with Ruto.
His political ambitions could therefore test the ability of the faction to accommodate leaders seeking different seats in the same city.
Political analyst Oscar Omondi said Nairobi’s cosmopolitan character would make it difficult for any political camp to assume that support from one community was enough to secure victory.
He said a political arrangement involving Babu for governor, Winnie for senator and former Law Society of Kenya president Faith Odhiambo for woman representative would raise questions about ethnic balance and the ability to attract voters across communities.
“Nairobi’s political landscape has traditionally relied on a delicate balance of alliances to secure a winning coalition,” Omondi said.
He said the city’s electorate was more receptive to leaders who could communicate across ethnic and generational lines, unlike rural constituencies where fluency in local languages and cultural references could play a bigger role in winning support.
However, he cautioned that the enthusiasm witnessed at political rallies should not be mistaken for a guaranteed voting bloc.
“Young people may view these leaders through the lens of generational solidarity, but when it comes to a general election, rival coalitions will quickly exploit a single-community lineup to rally other major voting blocs against them,” he said.
Omondi said Nairobi politicians would need to build alliances with voters from different communities rather than rely on the assumption that youth support would automatically translate into victory.
The debate over Winnie’s political direction has also drawn reactions from other aspirants eyeing the Senate seat.
Lang’ata MP Felix Odiwuor, popularly known as Jalang’o, welcomed her entry into the race, saying it would make the contest more competitive.
Jalang’o, who is also seeking the seat, said he was not intimidated by Winnie’s decision and would continue with his campaign regardless of who else entered the race.
“Winnie’s entry into the race makes it even more exciting, competitive and serious because the other people who announced their bid were not as serious. Baba did not bring us up to be afraid of anything. We are going to the wire. There is no giving up,” he said.
Winnie announced her bid at Migwena Grounds in Bondo, Siaya county, saying she would pursue the position alongside young people as she charts her political future.
“Let it not be a rumour that as Edwin Sifuna searches for higher offices, I see there is a space. That is why I will stand for the senator of Nairobi,” she said.
Jalang’o said Winnie had a democratic right to contest and maintained the race would be settled by voters and the party’s nomination process.
“If she is finding her space in this senatorial bid, we are ready. ODM tuko tayari and it is her democratic right to vie just like any other aspirant,” he said.
He also pledged to support whoever wins the ODM ticket if he fails to secure the nomination.
“I am a member of ODM and a member of the broad-based government, and that is where we will fight. If I don’t get the ticket during the nominations, I will support the person who gets it,” he said.
Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai offered a different interpretation of Winnie’s entry, suggesting it could be part of Sifuna’s strategy to contain Babu’s political ambitions.
“Winnie Odinga's run for Senate under Linda Mwananchi is Sifuna's way of countering Babu Owino. No effect on Jalang’o, but now it even kills Babu's quest,” Alai said.
The Nairobi Senate contest has also attracted nominated Senator Crystal Asige, musician William Karuga Kimani, popularly known as KRG The Don, United Opposition youth leader Ken Babu, lawyer Cecil Miller and former Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo.
With the field growing, Winnie’s next political steps will be closely watched, particularly whether she commits to ODM or aligns herself more firmly with Linda Mwananchi.
Her decision could shape not only the Senate contest but also the broader struggle over ODM’s direction ahead of next year's general election.
