Politicians and wananchi who attended Raila Odinga’s memorial at Migwena grounds, Siaya county /HANDOUTThe political loyalty of Luo Nyanza came into sharp focus on Thursday during the memorial service for the late Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, as rival political factions sought to assert control over his traditional political base.
The politically charged event brought together politicians on opposing sides of ODM — those allied to President William Ruto’s broad-based government and those opposed to it.
However, Ruto and his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, missed the event despite earlier indications that the two political heavyweights would attend.
While the memorial was expected to be a solemn occasion to honour Raila, one of Kenya’s most consequential politicians, it turned into a political contest between the Linda Ground and Linda Mwananchi camps, the two factions that have emerged within ODM.
Notable politicians from the Linda Ground side, which is associated with the government, included Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, Kisii Governor Simba Arati and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo.
On the Linda Mwananchi and Opposition side were Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Siaya Senator James Orengo, Peoples Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua and Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Also present were members of the Raila family, including his widow, Ida Odinga, son Raila Odinga Junior and youngest daughter Winnie Odinga, who is also an East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) legislator.
Pro-government politicians such as Wandayi and Arati addressed the gathering before leaving after delivering their speeches.
Their appearances, however, were repeatedly punctuated by “Wantam” chants from sections of the crowd, forcing Arati to warn the youth who were heckling him.
“I am issuing a warning to you [youth]. We know this game well,” Arati said, before reading a speech prepared by ODM leader Oburu Oginga, who is hospitalised.
The mood changed dramatically when Babu, Orengo and Sifuna were introduced, with the three receiving a thunderous reception from the crowd.
It was during the heightened political atmosphere that Winnie announced her intention to contest the Nairobi Senate seat in the 2027 General Election.
“Baba Raila Amolo Odinga, you taught us one thing… you taught us that leadership is not about power. Leadership is not about titles. Leadership is not about the names that we have. But leadership is about the courage to defend justice. Leadership is about service delivery,” Babu said to an enthusiastic crowd.
Sifuna and Orengo also received a warm reception.
The contrasting reactions have raised questions about where Luo Nyanza is leaning politically as Ruto seeks to consolidate support in the region ahead of the 2027 elections.
The emerging contest is increasingly being framed around “Wantam” — the Opposition push for Ruto to serve one term — and “Tutam” — the government camp’s campaign for his re-election.
Political analyst Maurice Otieno cautioned against treating the memorial as a definitive measure of Luo Nyanza’s political preferences.
“Thursday’s events cannot really be used as a standard measure of the current political standing of Luo Nyanza. However, the absence of key pro-government figures speaks volumes on why they skipped the event,” Otieno said.
He argued that the absence of prominent politicians such as National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed weakened the representation of the pro-government camp.
Government insiders, however, said some prominent politicians avoided the event because of what they described as “undue pressure” from Raila’s immediate family.
Junet explained his absence by pointing to the guest list, particularly the invitation extended to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
“They invited prominent figures, even Sponsor [Uhuru Kenyatta] to Raila’s memorial service. The Sponsor avoided us the way he escaped Raila in 2022. He avoided us in 2022, just like the way he did yesterday during his memorial. Is that a person to trust?” Junet said.
He also said he stayed away after learning that Gachagua had been invited.
“I did not attend Raila’s memorial because when I looked at the list of invited guests, I saw Gachagua. I can’t share a common venue with such a person. Baba’s spirit can also not be present in a place where such a person is,” he said.
According to Otieno, the debate over who attended or skipped the memorial could continue, but the real test of political loyalty will come with the 2027 General Election.
“For now, it’s really difficult to tell who has the numbers between the State and the Opposition. Real loyalty will be determined by the rate of voter turnout in 2027,” he said.
The four core counties of Luo Nyanza — Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori — overwhelmingly backed Raila in the 2022 presidential election.
According to official Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) data, the four counties recorded 1,559,244 (95.2 percent) valid votes, with Raila securing 1,484,509 votes against Ruto’s 82,470 (5.3 percent).
