China and the European Union are stepping up competing efforts to deepen their economic ties with Kenya, with agriculture emerging as a new front in the wider contest for markets, supply chains and influence in Africa.
This competition has become increasingly visible in Naivasha, where the EU is supporting efforts to connect Kenyan flowers and vegetables to international markets.
This comes at a time China is opening up its huge consumer market to more African agricultural products.
On October 6, EU Ambassador Andreas Peschke was in Naivasha for a meeting of the Steering Committee of the FRESH Northern Corridor Project, a collaboration between Kenya, the Netherlands and the EU under the Global Gateway initiative.
In a brief social media post, Amb Peschke said the meeting explored how to get Kenyan products to international markets fast, reliably and green.
He added in Swahili: “Maua na mboga za Kenya zinatakiwa ulimwenguni kote” — Kenyan flowers and vegetables are wanted around the world.
A day later, Peschke highlighted Kenya’s flower industry after visiting a farm near Naivasha, describing Kenyan flowers as “world-class” and noting that Europe is the largest market for Kenyan flowers, vegetables and foliage from Kenya.
The European push comes as China is making its own move to deepen access for Kenyan agricultural products.
Notably, Chinese Ambassador Guo Haiyan on September 24 led a delegation to Naivasha with diplomats and Kenyan officials and toured Vertical Agro Group.
The firm is an exporter of fruits and vegetables whose packhouse is linked to the Naivasha Inland Container Depot.
The facility sits within an export processing zone connected to the Chinese-built SGR, allowing refrigerated produce to move by rail towards the Port of Mombasa.
Vertical Agro's Sunripe subsidiary was among the first Kenyan exporters to ship avocados to China after the two countries agreed on phytosanitary arrangements in 2022.
During the visit, Amb Guo subsequently highlighted the elements of infrastructure and market access, saying the Mombasa-Nairobi-Naivasha railway had helped unlock growth in Kenya's agricultural hinterland while the zero-tariff policy was expanding opportunities for Kenyan products in China.
Naivasha has thus become an illustration of the competing economic approaches of the two sides.
And while China is combining infrastructure and preferential access to its own market, Europe is investing in connectivity and supply chains linking Kenya to international markets.
Since May 1, China introduced zero-tariff treatment for products from 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, including Kenya, in a move Beijing says is intended to expand African access to its market.
Early trade figures suggest Kenyan exporters are responding.
Between May and August, Kenya exported 1.71 million kilogrammes of unroasted green coffee to China, up from 712,610 kilogrammes during the same period in 2025 — an increase of 139.66 per cent.
The value of Kenyan coffee shipments to China nearly doubled, rising from about $7.43 million (Sh966 million) in May-August 2025 to $14.67 million (Sh1.91 billion) during the same period this year, an increase of 97.33 per cent.
Kenyan avocado exports also recorded strong growth. The value of shipments rose from about $4.03 million (Sh524 million) between May and August 2025 to $6.44 million (Sh836 million) during the same period this year, an increase of 59.65 per cent.
Combined, the value of coffee and avocado exports to China increased from about $11.47 million (Sh1.49 billion) in May-August 2025 to $21.11 million (Sh2.74 billion) this year.
The figures give an early indication of the potential impact of China’s tariff concessions on Kenyan agricultural exports and provide Beijing with a growing commercial foothold in a sector central to Kenya’s export economy.
Amb Guo said in the September visit that the zero-tariff policy was designed to give African products greater access to Chinese consumers.
Global Gateway was launched by the EU as a major investment strategy covering transport, digital connectivity, energy, health and other sectors. The European Parliament has described it as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and linked it to efforts to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
The competition is already visible in Kenya’s infrastructure sector.
China has financed and constructed major components of Kenya’s transport infrastructure, most notably the Standard Gauge Railway linking the Port of Mombasa to Nairobi and Naivasha.
The EU, meanwhile, has been backing improvements along the Northern Corridor linking Mombasa with Kenya’s landlocked neighbours, seeking to improve regional trade and connectivity.
