Kenya is among seven countries in the world who are closest to bringing the HIV epidemic under control, an analysis of those with high infections suggests.
However, sweeping cuts to international funding could reverse the gains made, the report by the UN AIDS said.
The agency noted that Kenya has reduced new HIV infections by nearly 80 per cent since 2010 and has achieved the global 95-95-95 treatment targets, placing it among a small group of countries demonstrating that ending Aids as a public health threat by 2030 is possible.
However, UNAIDS warned that sharp reductions in foreign aid, including funding cuts initiated by the United States under President Donald Trump's administration, threaten Kenya’s HIV prevention, testing and treatment programmes.
Kenya joins Benin, Eswatini, Lesotho, Nepal, Rwanda and Zimbabwe as the only countries to have achieved an almost 80 per cent reduction in new HIV infections since 2010.
Kenya recorded about 70,000 new HIV infections in 2010, according to estimates by the National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC). Today, that number has fallen dramatically to 13,936 new infections in 2025, representing an 80 per cent reduction over 15 years.
“Strong country leadership and a shift from donor-led to country-owned responses are increasing self-reliance and helping to strengthen national systems, local capacity and long-term sustainability,” the report said.
The UNAIDS special report was released in Brazil at the ongoing 26th International Aids Conference, the world’s largest meeting on HIV and Aids.
Kenya is also among 11 countries that have reached the 95-95-95 treatment targets, meaning that at least 95 per cent of people living with HIV know their status, 95 per cent of those diagnosed are receiving antiretroviral treatment, and 95 per cent of those on treatment have suppressed the virus to levels where it cannot be transmitted sexually.
Public health experts consider these milestones the clearest signs that a country is moving towards HIV epidemic control. They do not mean new HIV infections have been eliminated, but they show transmission is falling steadily while treatment is preventing illness, deaths and further spread of the virus.
The report says the world risks losing these hard-won gains unless governments replace shrinking donor support with stronger domestic investment.
"The era of relying on international aid is over," said Winnie Byanyima, executive director of UNAIDS.
"Countries cannot wait and they cannot go backwards. The world must urgently fix the broken financial system and accelerate debt restructuring so that governments can invest in what matters most—the health, education and futures of their people."
The warning follows one of the biggest shocks to global HIV financing in recent history.
According to UNAIDS, international financing for HIV fell from $8.8 billion in 2024 to $7.3 billion in 2025, an 18 per cent decline and the lowest level in nearly two decades. Overall global development assistance dropped by 23 per cent in 2025, the steepest annual fall on record, with HIV programmes among those hardest hit.
HIV services funded through the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar), the world's largest HIV programme, were disrupted in several countries, forcing clinics and community organisations to scale back prevention, testing and treatment services.
Although emergency waivers allowed some lifesaving treatment to continue, many prevention programmes, outreach activities and community-led services either stopped or were sharply reduced, especially in countries that depended heavily on donor funding.
The consequences could be severe.
UNAIDS estimates that 1.2 million people acquired HIV in 2025, while 570,000 died from Aids-related illnesses globally. Around nine million of the 41 million people living with HIV were not receiving treatment.
Without urgent action, the agency warns that more than three million additional people could become infected with HIV by 2030.
Kenya's own figures show both the progress made and the work that still lies ahead.
According to the NSDCC estimates, the country recorded 19,991 new HIV infections in 2024, up from 16,752 infections in 2023.
The increase highlighted persistent gaps in prevention, particularly among adolescent girls, young women and other vulnerable groups.
However, the latest preliminary government estimates show Kenya has regained momentum.
About 13,936 Kenyans contracted HIV in 2025, the lowest number recorded since the epidemic began and a dramatic improvement from the previous year.
The NSDCC said the figure represents a 56 per cent decline from the 32,027 new infections recorded in 2020.
"While this represents ongoing programmatic and structural gaps, it reflects a substantial 56 per cent decline from the 32,027 new infections recorded in 2020, signalling that scaled-up prevention frameworks are yielding strong results," NSDCC chief executive Douglas Bosire said.
"The 95-95-95 treatment targets have been maintained, with viral load suppression holding in a majority of counties. The prevention of mother-to-child transmission cascade was protected in 44 of 47 counties despite the 2025 funding disruption," he said.
The latest estimates show Nairobi recorded the highest number of new infections at 1,516, followed by Kisumu with 1,057, Homa Bay with 985 and Migori with 970.
Children and young people continue to bear a disproportionate burden. More than half of all new infections occurred among children, adolescents and young adults, while adolescent girls and young women remain the most vulnerable group.
Yet the report warns that the very programmes that helped Kenya reach its current position are now under financial pressure.
About 80 per cent of HIV prevention funding in sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally come from international donors. Community organisations, which often reach people least likely to visit health facilities, also depend heavily on foreign support.
Kenya has recently secured some reassurance through a new health partnership signed with the United States earlier this year. The five-year agreement is expected to mobilise an estimated $1.6 billion (about Sh207 billion) to strengthen Kenya's health system, including HIV, tuberculosis and malaria programmes, reforms at the Kenya Medical Supplies Authority and expansion of digital health systems.
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