Political risk analyst Dismus MokuaPresident Ruto must pick a running mate who has three qualities. That person must be of character, capacity and competence to take over as Head of State if the position falls vacant. Number two, he needs a trusted person who will remain loyal to the constitution.
Part of the reason why Mr Rigathi Gachagua was impeached is that he assaulted the constitution. So, in choosing his running mate, the President must ensure that whoever he decides to be his running mate is loyal to the constitution and loyal to our national and public interests. Now, the first two are technical considerations.
The most important consideration will be somebody who will be a symbol of national unity and somebody who can bring in numbers because, for you to become President, you need at least 50 per cent plus one.
So, when the President is considering his running mate, he must look at somebody who will be complementary and assist him to secure the 50 per cent plus one. Right now, we are in that era in the Kenyan political space.
We are in the era where the 2027 presidential election is going to be a complicated, simultaneous equation. It is going to be what people would describe as being informed by four things. Number one, there are known knowns. Number two, there are known unknowns.
Number three, there are unknown knowns. Number four, there are unknown unknowns.
The reason why you have those four variables in place is the emergence, first, of political goons and, second, the Mount Kenya politics as it is being driven by Rigathi Gachagua.
Gachagua has managed, through misinformation and disinformation, to place Mount Kenya strongly on his matrix.
Either by design or by force, he has managed to nationalise his personal problems with President Ruto. In fact, he wants to use the 2027 presidential election to settle his personal scores with the President.
He is now behaving like a wounded lion, like a cornered cat, and is approaching the one-term agenda with missionary zeal.
The probability therefore exists that Ruto will face turbulence in getting votes from Mt Kenya.
The Ol Kalou by-election has exposed the fact that UDA politicians from Mount Kenya did not have the capacity or competence to withstand the political pressure created by Gachagua. Number two, Gachagua has managed to suffocate multiparty democracy in Mount Kenya because he has declared DCP the Mt Kenya party.
Therefore, anybody who wants to run for election in Mt Kenya is going to run on a DCP ticket because, if you do not do that, you are branded a traitor.
Ruto will experience significant challenges in securing the Mount Kenya vote. That is why, when he chooses his running mate, he needs to gather the courage and, with clarity, consider all possible options.
In choosing his running mate, he should adopt a clean-sheet strategy, where he takes a pencil and a piece of white paper and looks at all the people who could potentially be his running mate and asks: who among them will bring numbers to the table? That is why it is very important for him to consider a running mate who will help him consolidate numbers from across the country.
He must therefore put up a big tent that accommodates all manner of politicians, all manner of political parties and all manner of political interests because you cannot take the Mt Kenya vote to the bank given the turbulence created by Gachagua.
He needs to ensure that the running mate is somebody with national appeal who can help him attain the 50 per cent plus one. In doing so, he will be guided by science.
He needs to sit down, conduct a scenario and sensitivity analysis, place all the potential running mates on the table and determine who can help him secure a second term
The Nairobi-based political risk analyst spoke to the Star
