How DP position will shape Ruto’s re-election bid

Once largely seen as a constitutional requirement, the office has evolved into a powerful feature for coalition-building, regional balance and voter mobilisation in the country’s competitive political environment.

Analysts say the choice of running mate could significantly influence turnout patterns, particularly in battleground counties, where ethnic arithmetic and regional loyalty remain decisive.

At the centre of the unfolding political contest are expected negotiations between ODM and UDA, which are expected to shape pre-election coalition arrangements.

Both sides are aggressively positioning themselves to secure the Deputy President slot, widely seen as the most valuable bargaining chip in any potential alliance.

ODM has made its position clear, with party leader Oburu Oginga insisting that the party will only negotiate from a position of strength.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo said the contest over the position is already shaping up as a defining factor in Ruto’s re-election calculus. 

He noted that ongoing talks between ODM and UDA are likely to influence how alliances are structured ahead of the polls.

“For UDA, the argument is rooted in continuity and incumbency. The ruling party has signaled its preference to retain the position under Kithure Kindiki, framing it as essential to preserving stability in government ranks and sustaining the administration’s development agenda,” Orogo said.

However, ODM is equally determined to clinch the slot. Orogo observed that the party is seeking to leverage its parliamentary strength and regional support to negotiate for the position.

“Securing the deputy presidency would not only cement ODM’s place at the heart of government but also signal a broader political realignment capable of attracting new voter blocs,” he said.

The push for the position has also taken on a regional dimension, with Coast leaders rallying behind Mining CS Hassan Ali Joho as their preferred candidate.

Abdulswamad Nassir has led the campaign, arguing that the region deserves representation at the highest levels of government.

“By 2027, the Deputy President should come from ODM and specifically from the Coast,” he said.

The endorsement of Joho has been backed by a host of Coast leaders, including legislators and senators from Mombasa, Kilifi, and Kwale counties.

Speaking during a recent gathering, Mvita MP Mohamed Machele emphasised the importance of regional inclusion in coalition talks.

“We need someone from the Coast in leadership because they understand the problems we face, including land and community matters. This representation is vital for our development,” she said.

Even as Coast leaders push their case, some ODM insiders argue that if the party secures the deputy slot, the candidate should come from its traditional stronghold in Nyanza.

Names such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga have been floated, highlighting internal debates within the party over regional balance and political strategy.

UDA, on the other hand, has moved to quell speculation over potential changes to the ticket, reaffirming that Kindiki will remain Ruto’s running mate.

Allies warn that dropping him could cost the President crucial support in Mt Kenya, a key voting bloc.

Then again, retaining him risks weakening ODM’s enthusiasm, exposing the delicate balancing act facing Ruto.

There is also growing speculation that Ruto could settle on a compromise candidate, such as Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, in a bid to unify competing interests in the coalition.

Political commentator Albert Kasembeli said the tug-of-war underscores the high stakes involved in coalition-building, where the Deputy President slot has become a critical prize rather than a secondary consideration.

He warned that while a carefully negotiated outcome could broaden the President’s appeal, any misstep risks alienating key allies at a crucial moment in the political cycle.