Why Western is now a key battleground

For years, Raila played the role of consolidator-in-chief in the region, rallying voters across Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Trans Nzoia and Vihiga counties under a unified political banner.

His influence ensured that the vote-rich bloc largely moved in one direction during presidential contests.

But with Raila no longer at the centre of the region’s politics, Western Kenya is witnessing an unprecedented scramble for control.

ODM, the party Raila founded and which has traditionally dominated the region, is now grappling with internal divisions.

Local leaders are split into two camps: one backing President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027 and another firmly opposed to it.

The pro-Ruto faction argues that aligning with the government offers the region a better chance at development and national inclusion.

Several ODM lawmakers have adopted a more conciliatory tone towards the Kenya Kwanza administration, signalling a potential realignment that could fracture the once-solid voting bloc.

On the other hand, a rival faction in ODM insists that the region must remain firmly in the opposition, accusing pro-government leaders of betraying the party’s founding principles.

They maintain that Western Kenya’s political identity has historically been anchored in a reformist agenda.

Adding to the complexity is the DAP-K party led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Allied to the emerging United Opposition faction, DAP-K has intensified grassroots mobilisation efforts across the region, positioning itself as the new vehicle for Western Kenya’s political aspirations.

The party has been aggressively courting voters, particularly the youth, framing the 2027 contest as a chance to redefine Western Kenya’s bargaining power at the national level.

With more than 2.6 million registered voters spread across the five counties, Western Kenya holds significant numerical weight in a tightly contested presidential race.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo notes that in an election likely to be decided by narrow margins, the region could play kingmaker, but only if one camp manages to consolidate the vote.

“The days of automatic political loyalty are over,” Orogo said.

“What we are seeing is a competitive environment where leaders must persuade voters rather than rely on inherited political capital.”

As rival camps crisscross the region holding rallies, fundraising events and grassroots meetings, the political temperature is rising steadily.

Ruto has already dispatched Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka and Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula to coordinate his re-election campaign across Western Kenya.

The two leaders have been spearheading grassroots mobilisation, engaging community elders, youth and women groups to consolidate support for UDA and the Kenya Kwanza administration ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Lusaka and Savula have also been holding strategy meetings with elected leaders backing Ruto’s re-election, as well as aspirants hoping to contest on a UDA ticket, in a bid to craft a unified approach to winning over voters.

Speaking to the Star, Savula said their goal is to deliver more than 2.6 million votes to Ruto.

“We are not leaving anything to chance. We are going to make sure all the votes Raila used to get from Western are transferred to Ruto,” he said.

Savula added that he sees no problem achieving the ambitious target, citing ongoing talks between ODM and UDA on a possible pre-election agreement.

He dismissed the influence of the United Opposition led by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua of DCP and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the region.

“I do not see Kalonzo or Gachagua getting anything from Western. They should not waste time courting the region,” Savula said.

However, Savula and Lusaka may face stiffer resistance from within ODM itself than from the United Opposition.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, whom ODM recently sought to remove as secretary general before a court stopped the gazettement of his ouster, has maintained his opposition to Ruto’s re-election bid.

Addressing the media a day after the ODM National Executive Committee announced his removal, Sifuna said his only crime was refusing to support Ruto’s second term.

He explained that he opposes Ruto’s re-election because his camp does not stand for everything Raila championed, insisting that the party must remain true to its founding ideals.

The standoff has exposed deep cracks in ODM, with some leaders warning of possible defections if dissenting voices are pushed out.

ODM deputy party leader Godffrey Osotsi has threatened to leave the party if Sifuna is ejected.

He announced that they will continue with their meetings and mobilisation efforts across the country despite internal wrangles.

“From this weekend, we are going to our supporters, starting with Kitengela on Sunday, and on February 21, we will be in Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma,” Osotsi said.

“We will continue to protect the legacy of Raila Odinga.”

As the campaigns gather momentum, the once predictable political landscape of Western Kenya appears increasingly fluid.

With multiple camps jostling for dominance, the region is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested arenas in the run-up to 2027.