Kenya to experience mixed rainfall patterns during March–May long rains

Kenya will experience mixed rainfall patterns during the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 long-rains season, the Kenya Meteorological Department has said.

The Department said that several regions are projected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall while others face below-average totals.

In a statement on Tuesday after the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF12), KMD said areas likely to receive favourable rainfall include the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya.

“Near-average to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the Rift Valley, and parts of North-western Kenya,” the statement read.

However, the outlook indicates reduced rainfall over other parts of the country.

KMD said near-average to below-average rainfall is expected over the Southeastern Lowlands, Northeastern, and parts of Northwestern Kenya, while below-average rainfall is expected over the Coastal region.

The department cautioned that despite expected rainfall amounts, the quality of the season may be affected by uneven distribution.

“Several areas are likely to experience a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall,” with the season “characterised by a normal to late onset, with intermittent dry spells.”

KMD said the season will not be entirely dry, warning that occasional heavy rainfall events are likely to occur in some parts of the country.

The peak of the long rains is expected in April across most regions.

However, the Coast will peak later, with KMD stating that the peak is expected to occur in April over most regions, except for the Coast, where the peak is expected in May.

Regionally, counties in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Rift Valley, including Kakamega, Kisumu, Bungoma, Nakuru, Kericho and Narok, are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, with occasional heavy rainfall events likely to occur in several parts of the region.

Similar conditions are forecast for the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, covering Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Nairobi counties, where rainfall is also expected to be near-average to above-average.

In contrast, Northeastern counties, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo as well as the Southeastern Lowlands of Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta, are expected to experience near-average to below-average rainfall, with generally poor distribution during the season

The Coastal region is forecast to be the driest during the period.

“Rainfall is likely to be below-average during the forecast period despite the depressed rainfall over the Coast; occasional heavy rainfall events are likely to occur in a few areas.”

On temperatures, the department warned of widespread heat, stating that warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the whole country during the MAM 2026 season, with higher probabilities over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, the Southeastern Lowlands and parts of Northeastern Kenya

KMD advised farmers, disaster managers and planners to remain alert, noting that short-term climate drivers could still influence the season.

It cautioned that intraseasonal drivers of variability, such as tropical cyclones and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, are only predictable at shorter lead times and can significantly influence the expected seasonal outcome.