Why Gachagua’s Uhuru gamble risks backfiring in Mt Kenya

However, analysts warn that the strategy could ultimately weaken, rather than strengthen, Gachagua’s political leverage, particularly in his Mt Kenya backyard.

Gachagua, who leads the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), has in recent months openly declared political unity with Uhuru, framing the move as a necessary step to consolidate the Mt Kenya voting bloc and counter President William Ruto’s growing influence in the region.

The former Deputy President has rolled out an eight-point strategy anchored on cooperation with Uhuru and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro as he seeks to reposition himself as the region’s principal political broker ahead of 2027.

However, Uhuru’s political posture could complicate the plan. The former President has already endorsed Fred Matiang’i as his preferred presidential candidate for 2027, declaring that the former Interior CS will run on the Jubilee Party ticket, which Uhuru continues to lead.

During a Jubilee Party delegates’ meeting at Thika Greens in Murang’a county on November 7 last year, Uhuru made his position unequivocal.

“I’m supporting Matiang’i because of his capacity, not his tribe. In fact, I don’t even know his home; I’ve never visited him, but he is a hardworking leader,” Uhuru said.

Political commentator Joseph Mutua said the endorsement has significant implications for Gachagua’s strategy.

“While he may be seeking unity with Uhuru to stabilise his political base, such an alliance also revives Jubilee as an active political force in Mt Kenya, one that is likely to field candidates across the region,” he said.

Mutua said Jubilee’s revival would place Jubilee in direct competition with DCP for the same voter base, potentially fragmenting the support Gachagua hopes to consolidate under his new party.

Political analyst Fred Sasia said Jubilee’s continued presence offers an alternative platform for aspirants who fail to secure DCP tickets or who fall out with Gachagua’s camp.

“With Uhuru still regarded by many in Mt Kenya as ‘their son’, voters may not hesitate to back Jubilee candidates, weakening DCP’s dominance not only in the region but also in Nairobi constituencies with large Kikuyu populations,” he said.

The effect, he believes, could be a reduced number of DCP legislators in both Mt Kenya and Nairobi, diminishing Gachagua’s bargaining power ahead of post-election negotiations.

He added that a closer working relationship between Gachagua and Uhuru could inadvertently strengthen Matiang’i’s standing in Mt Kenya at Gachagua’s expense.

With Uhuru firmly backing Matiang’i, any political unity between the former President and the ex-Deputy President risks transferring regional goodwill to the Jubilee-backed candidate.

Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu has argued that Matiang’i’s growing acceptability in Mt Kenya is precisely what unsettles Gachagua.

“Gachagua biggest problem with Matiang’i is that Matiang’i is the only candidate in the opposition who can only come to Mount Kenya by himself and be accepted,” Wambugu said.

If Matiang’i consolidates support in both the Kisii region and a substantial portion of Mt Kenya through Uhuru’s backing, he would approach the negotiating table with a stronger hand.

“In that scenario, Gachagua’s leverage as a regional kingpin would be significantly eroded,” Mutua said.

The political commentator said Matiang’i could credibly argue that he brings votes from his home region as well as Mt Kenya, leaving Gachagua with fewer numbers to justify demands for a large stake in any future power-sharing arrangement.

“For a politician whose influence has traditionally rested on delivering Mt Kenya votes, that would mark a sharp decline in political muscle.”

Despite these risks, Gachagua has doubled down on reconciliation with Uhuru, publicly expressing regret over the hostility directed at the former President during the 2022 election campaign.

Speaking recently at a burial in Murang’a, Gachagua struck a conciliatory tone.

“I was misled,” he told the crowd. “Uhuru is our son. We cannot throw the baby out with the bathwater.”

Behind the scenes, however, Gachagua is under intense pressure. He has lost several key allies in the region and suffered sustained political attacks from Ruto and state-backed actors.

Insiders say the coming months represent a decisive 17-month political test for the former Deputy President.

To steady his party, Gachagua recently convened a three-day closed-door retreat in Kilifi county, bringing together members of his inner circle to assess recent setbacks and recalibrate strategy ahead of 2027.

At the end of the retreat on January 19, he announced that his deputy, former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, would oversee the implementation of the party’s action plan.

“After consultations with like-minded legislators, I have approved our Plan of Action for the year and assigned my deputy, Malala, to spearhead its execution on behalf of the party,” Gachagua said.

The plan is aimed at checking Ruto’s growing influence in Mt Kenya following a series of high-profile defections from Gachagua’s camp.

Critics, however, argue that aligning too closely with Uhuru while Jubilee is backing a rival presidential candidate could dilute DCP’s distinct identity and undermine Gachagua’s efforts to present himself as the undisputed voice of the region.