NJAU: Muminji and Evurore by-elections could redefine Mt Kenya political order

The upcoming by-elections in Embu’s Muminji and Evurore wards, scheduled for February 26, are shaping up as more than routine local contests as several political parties are fielding candidates.

Political analysts say the by-elections in Mbeere North constituency in Embu are emerging as a critical test of Mt Kenya’s political succession ahead of the 2027 general election.

The two seats fell vacant following the resignation of Newton Karish, who served as MCA for Muminji ward, and Duncan Mbui, the former Evurore MCA, who stepped down to contest the Mbeere North MP seat but lost to UDA’s Leo Wamuthende.

Karish was elected MCA on a Devolution Empowerment Party (DEP) ticket in 2022 but resigned to run for MP on a Democratic Party ticket, while Mbui had been elected as an independent.

Karish finished second in the Mbeere North race and has since announced he will not seek to reclaim his ward seat, instead focusing on a parliamentary bid in 2027.

Faith Gitau, Nyandarua woman representative and a governor aspirant, told the Star that the by-elections will serve as a formality to confirm UDA’s popularity in the Mt Kenya region.

She said the ruling party, led by President William Ruto, has more than 45 per cent support in Mt Kenya, blaming last year’s dip in popularity on what she termed misinformation by the opposition.

“Whatever happened in Mbeere North, where UDA candidate Leo Wamuthende won, will still happen in Muminji and Evurore. UDA is not leaving anything to chance. We must show the world that Mt Kenya will support Ruto even in 2027,” Gitau said.

She urged voters to ignore the opposition and rally behind the government for development.

“UDA is the region’s party, and we will not allow the opposition to mislead our people. We will campaign until the last minute,” she said.

Nyeri gubernatorial aspirant Thuo Mathenge said the by-elections are just as critical as national polls as they give parties an opportunity to measure their grassroots strength.

Mathenge said the contests will reveal voter behaviour and shifting alliances, likely signalling the region’s future balance of power.

“By-elections will mirror broader political trends in Mt Kenya ahead of the 2027 general election, as local ballots increasingly reflect national party dynamics and succession battles,” he said.

He said that the region has a number of political parties and all are allowed to field candidates without being discriminated against or intimidated.

Last week, UDA national chairperson Cecily Mbarire issued a party ticket to Duncan Mukangu for the Evurore ward race.She promised candidates party support in their campaigns.

The DP has nominated Albert Kigoro, a former MCA, to contest the Evurore seat.

On Wednesday, Kigoro reaffirmed his loyalty to the party and called on residents to back his bid. He also mobilised supporters ahead of presenting his nomination papers at the IEBC offices in Siakago.

“Evurore residents, we have a date with destiny on February 26, he posted on social media. “As we begin on the campaign trail, let us remember that what unites us is greater than what divides us.”

In Muminji ward, UDA has endorsed Peterson Njiru. The DP, led by former National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, reportedly is considering not fielding a candidate and instead supporting the DEP nominee.

A reliable source said the arrangement mirrors previous cooperation, as DEP had earlier allowed Karish to contest the Mbeere North MP seat on a DP ticket.

DEP leader Lenny Kivuti on Wednesday announced on social media that the party would support Bonface Ngari for the Muminji ward seat. Kivuti described Ngari as a passionate and dynamic leader capable of delivering accountable leadership and driving development.

“Boni isn’t just another politician — he is one of you. Always ready to foster and participate in Muminji and Embu county’s development agenda,” Kivuti said.

A party source indicated DEP will not field a candidate in Evurore as DP already has a candidate, while DP is expected to stay out of the Muminji race to avoid a conflict of interest.

DP national chairman Essau Kioni told the Star the party is confident of capturing the Evurore seat. He said the party may not to field a candidate in Muminji if formally approached by Kivuti’s team.

Kioni acknowledged DEP’s previous support, saying Karish had been backed by DEP in the Mbeere North contest.

“We are ready to field candidates in both Muminji and Evurore, but if Kivuti’s team requests our support, we will back their candidate,” he said.

He cautioned leaders against imposing candidates on voters and urged the IEBC to ensure free and fair elections.

“Just as in Mbeere North, the united opposition will campaign for single candidates to avoid vote splitting. Claims of division are propaganda by our opponents,” Kioni said.

Comedian Eric Omondi, through his Youth 47 Movement, has announced Charles Kiura as a candidate for the Muminji ward seat.

Former Nairobi Governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko, through his National Economic Development Party, has announced Cosmas Njeru as its Muminji ward candidate.

Sonko dismissed claims NEDP is a political project of external interests, saying the party is homegrown.

“Those who think we are a project of anyone should watch this space. These are our maiden candidates, and we are confident we shall carry the day,” Sonko said.

He promised to spearhead door-to-door campaigns to rally support for the party’s candidates.

Political analyst Albert Kasembeli described the by-elections as a do-or-die contest for both the government and the opposition in Mt Kenya. He said UDA is keen to defend its dominance, while the opposition is determined to reclaim lost ground.

“These contests are not just about winning seats. They are early indicators of which leaders and parties have strong organisation, grassroots support, and messaging that resonates with voters,” Kasembeli said.

He said government-backed candidates are likely to face stiff competition from a united opposition, similar to the scenario in Mbeere North.

Wamuthende has warned opposition leaders, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, against inciting crowds during the campaigns.

“We are telling him to bring his candidate so that when we defeat him, he does not deny it later. He never fielded a candidate in Mbeere North when he had the chance,” Wamuthende said.

Mbui has confirmed he will not contest the seat, saying he will instead support another candidate as he prepares his 2027 parliamentarybid.