You know how in a big family, when the main house is too full, people move to the smaller house in the compound? Kenyan politics is like that right now.
The two biggest parties, UDA and ODM, are planning to work together for the 2027 general election.
Because they are friends, they will try to share seats and avoid fighting each other.
To avoid voter confusion, they are discussing zoning plans, a process likely to push many politicians out in the cold.
But this means that inside each big party, there will be many politicians who want the same seat.
Only one person can get the party ticket. So, what happens to the others who are rejected?
They cannot just go home. They are still popular in their villages and counties.
So, they look for a 'smaller house' – a smaller political party that is still friendly to their big party alliance.
United Progressive Alliance, Movement for Democracy and Growth, Pamoja Africa Alliance, United Democratic Movement, Jubilee and DAP-K of the political sphere are stepping in to fill the vacuum.
This is the new game as the country hurtles towards the general election as politicians up their preparations.
In ODM's stronghold of Nyanza, many big names are fighting for governor seats.
In Migori, Uriri MP Mark Nyamita wants to be governor, but the ticket will likely go to the current governor, Ochilo Ayacko.
Where does Nyamita go? He may go to a party called MDG, led by MP David Ochieng'.
“The interest in our party has grown tremendously. Many politicians have approached us so that we work together,” Ochieng’ told the Star recently, promising more details later.
For the MDG leader, said to be eyeing a bigger seat in the county, zoning should be discouraged by all means, emphasising that “the more the merrier.”
“You cannot get the most capable leaders when competition is removed. We support [President William] Ruto, but we will oppose any zoning attempts along perceived party or regional strongholds,” he said.
In Kisumu, people like Prof Tom Ojienda want to be governor, a seat also eyed by key ODM bigwigs like Aduma Owuor (Nyakach MP), Rozaah Buyu (Kisumu West MP) and former Chief Administrative Secretary Ken Obura.
Only one person will be handed the ODM ticket.
In Siaya, former MP Nicholas Gumbo wants to be governor, albeit through UDM.
He garnered more than 147,500 votes in the 2022 election through the party.
This week, an interim registration certificate was issued by Office of Registrar of Political Parties to an outfit trading as People’s Renaissance Movement.
The party, believed to be associated with big figures seeking quit a popular outfit, is largely youth-led.
Its interim secretary general Sarabai Emmanuel said, “[It is a] party that believes in inclusivity and economic renaissance.”
“The existing political parties don’t share the ideologies we have as the founding members.”
Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga, in the wake of his fallout with Governor Gladys Wanga, has to look for another party.He ran as an independent in the 2017 election, giving ODM a run for its money.
At the Coast, a similar story plays out. Former Gender Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa wants to be governor and challenge the incumbent, Gideon Mung'aro.
But because UDA and ODM are friends, they may decide that Mung'aro should be the only candidate.
Out of fear of being locked out of UDA, Jumwa has already contemplated where to go.
The ex-CS has opted for PAA, the party of former Governor Amason Kingi.
It is a Coast-based party that is still in the same Kenya Kwanza alliance with UDA. It is her ‘smaller house’.
In Mandera and the North, Senator Ali Roba has his own party, UDM. It is in the Kenya Kwanza government with UDA.
If a politician from that region feels he will lose in UDA nominations, he can easily move to UDM.
It is a safe local vehicle that is still aligned with the government. It is a house for the community within the big alliance.
In Kisii, a new party called UPA is becoming strong. It did well in recent small elections.
Some ODM MPs, like Kitutu Chache South’s Anthony Kibagendi, are now praising UPA.
If they fear they will lose the ODM ticket, they will run with UPA.
The Kisii Governor, Simba Arati, says Kisii will back ODM to a great extent.
“Gusii land has traditionally, in terms of parties, even when Jubilee was a ruling party, ODM was still beating them,” Arati said.
He argued that Kisiis remained in ODM despite Fred Matiang’i’s influence in the Uhuru Kenyatta administration, almost more of a deputy president.
“There would be a feeling that one of our own is running, but for sure, I can tell you that Kisii remains largely ODM.”
But many politicians are not so sure. They want a backup plan, and UPA is that plan.
UPA national chairman Nyambega Gisesa said, “There is a lot of interest, not only in Gusii, after our performance in the recent by-elections.”
“It was the only party that fielded candidates in all regions. We had a candidate in Banisa and will present nominees for the Mbeere North ward by-elections slated for February,” he told the Star.
He said that the “party is not only a fallback plan for those who may miss out in the UDA-ODM horse trading but is being approached by many politicians.”
In Western, Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-Kis rising because of leaders like Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
In places like Bungoma, big names like Tim Wanyonyi from ODM and Didmus Barasa of UDA all want to be governor.
If they cannot agree on who gets the ticket in their big parties, they might run using an older party like Ford Kenya or DAP-K.
Even DAP-K, as it is waiting to welcome anyone who wants a new, popular vehicle, has been facing competition.
Natembeya in August denied forming a breakaway political outfit out of the DAP-K shadow.
Even so, the party is threatening to upend the established order of Ford Kenya, ODM and UDA in the region.
A recent poll by research firm Infotrak showed how it is shaking up the old politics of the region.
In Mt Kenya region, problems are brewing with former DP Rigathi Gachagua stirring the waters with his new outfit, DCP.
Those who fall out with him or fail to find a ticket in the outfit cannot just disappear. They need a party.
Their likely new home? The old Jubilee Party, which can offer them a way to stay in politics and face off with UDA.
“It is a game of musical chairs,” political analyst and commentator Herman Manyora said. “The music is the nomination process in the big parties.”
INSTANT ANALYSIS
For the voters, it means on election day, they will see many different party names on the ballot, MDG, PAA, UPA, DAP-K, but the politicians are all still working with either Ruto or Gachagua or Kalonzo behind the scenes. This strategy allows them (the politicians) to run without directly opposing the alliance.
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