The passing on of ODM leader Raila Odinga has left the country’s single largest opposition party at a historic crossroads with top leadership sharply divided over its political future.
At the centre of the split is the stance toward President William Ruto going into the 2027 election.
Signals from the party’s top organs suggest the Orange party has made up its mind to work with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration.
The push for ODM-UDA coalition is being spearheaded by party leader Oburu Oginga, national chairperson Gladys Wanga, deputy party leaders Simba Arati and Abdulswamad Nassir and Minority leaders Junet Mohammed, amongst others.
“The committee meeting expressed the intention to initiate structured negotiations with different political formations, beginning with United Democratic Alliance,” Oburu announced on Monday after the party’s Central Management Committee meeting.
“To this end, we have mandated the party leader to commence this process. Concurrently, consultations with party members will proceed, culminating in the national delegates convention.”
This direction, however, has unsettled a vocal faction led by secretary general Edwin Sifuna, deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
The Sifuna team have publicly differed with the party’s ranks and file on the intended cooperation with President William Ruto’s UDA.
On Wednesday, the internal rift in the twenty-year-old party widened after Oburu told off dissenting voices that they are free to leave the outfit.
The Siaya senator however clarified the party has no intention to kick them out but they are free to leave the outfit.
Oburu was speaking during a rally in Kibra’s Kamkunji grounds to build momentum for the ODM-UDA talks.
For the second time in less than a week, he was without his secretary general during a major party function. The rally was also not attended by Babu and Ruth.
Addressing the well-attended rally, Oburu dismissed claims that the party is plotting to purge dissenting members.
“We don’t have intention to remove anybody from the party, whoever wants to leave is free to do so,” Oburu fired.
He made it clear that ODM will not be held hostage by individuals unwilling to respect collective decisions, adding that the party will engage from a point of strength.
His remarks come amid rising tension between pro-Ruto and anti-Ruto factions within ODM, with the party preparing for a delegates’ meeting expected to define its 2027 strategy.
Babu immediately fired back, dismissing the Kilifi resolutions, even as he insists on leadership overhaul at the party.
“The ODM that we have currently does not talk about what Raila stood for. Baba never went to look for coalitions or other parties, other parties came to look for Raila,” Babu said.
“Our old men are at a comfort zone and at rest because of the wars that they’ve fought and it is time for them to hand over the baton to the young generation who are seeing the next future.
“Our Moses is gone, we need a Joshua who is younger than Moses. A Joshua with the vigour, courage, and temerity to take the people that Baba left to Canaan.”
The anti-Ruto wing argues that ODM risks losing its soul as a reformist movement and alienating its core support base if it formally aligns with the government.But momentum appears to be against them.
In what confirms the escalating tension in the party, MPs allied to Oburu issued a stern warning to anti-Ruto forces in the party over alleged plans to stage a parallel rally in Nairobi to counter the Kamkunji rally.
The lawmakers, led by George Aladwa (Makadara) and TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), declared they will not allow rallies meant to undermine the party leader.
They accused the dissenting faction of undermining party unity and defying decisions already taken by the party’s top organs.
“We want to confirm that the decision of the Central Committee is the beest decision we have been waiting for, anybody who will come here on Sunday we will not allow,” Kajwang’ said.“As the leadership of Nairobi, we do not approve any meeting here on Sunday,” Aladwaadded.
Nassir talked of an outside hand in the Sunday meeting which, he said, is part of the bigger plan to bring division in the party.
“There are people planning parallel rallies, we want to tell those being sponsored and their sponsors to split this party. They will have no room,” Abdulswmad said.“Our colleagues who want to split the party, how will you manage when Western, Coast, Kisii and Western and Nairobi are firmly behind the party.”
Speaking to Radio Ramogi on Tuesday, ODM national chairperson Wanga raised concerns with the incessant ‘friendly fires’ cautioning it risks fragmenting the party.
Wanga, under whose docket party discipline falls, called for the unity of the party at a time it has embarked on 2027 elections preparations.
"We want to strengthen our party in all our strongholds. We cannot have too much ‘friendly fire'. Friendly fires also kill," Wanga said.
"This is not the first time we will be in a coalition. We lost seats like Lang'ata in Nairobi in the 2017 elections. We must be united and strong to win in our strongholds."
Responding to the situation in the party, Arati, while acknowledging the turbulence, assured supporters that soon things will settle and unity will prevail.“We will soon have peace in the party don’t be worried.”
On Monday, ODM’s central decision-making resorted for a structured cooperation with the President.The party has now embarked on countrywide public engagement as it seeks to have its members endorse proposed 2027 deal.
Almost simultaneously, UDA’s national executive committee on Wednesday convened and endorsed the talks.
“The NEC noted the decision of the ODM party Central Management Committee to initiate structured negotiations with the UDA party, in the Kenya Kwanza coalition, to strengthen the ongoing political partnership and negotiate a coalition agreement ahead of the 2027 general elections,” the ruling party said in a statement.
“The NEC mandated the UDA party leader to establish mechanisms for structured engagement with the ODM party to achieve the desired outcome.”
For the anti-Ruto camp, the planned talks feel like a closing door.
Some fear it will mark the end of internal resistance and effectively marginalise voices calling for ODM to remain an independent opposition force.
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