By-elections nominations show ODM losing popularity in its strongholds?

ODM Nairobi branch officials led by George Aladwa (left)

The dwindling fortunes of Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party are being revealed even as the party plans mega events to mark its 20th anniversary.

The by-elections have exposed a pattern where ODM is not attracting candidates in areas which were formerly its strongholds; that once attracted competitive primaries, some of which often turned chaotic.  

In Kakamega, one of ODM’s strongholds, going by the 2022 election, where the party claimed 10 out of 12 parliamentary seats, the party could not attract a candidate for the Malava parliamentary seat.

ODM has consequently thrown its weight behind UDA in a restive region as the Broad-based coalition seeks to retain the seat held by the late Mululu Injendi.

The situation was replicated in Kwisero, ODM has resorted to awarding a direct ticket in Kisa East ward, where only one candidate showed up.

ODM has also issued direct tickets in Narok’s Purko and Angata Nyanyokie wards, where candidates are shying away. In Kilifi’s Magarini parliamentary seat, ODM resolved to grant Harrison Kombe a direct ticket to defend a seat he lost through a petition.

Outside Luoland, ODM’s strongholds are Coast, especially Mombasa, Kilifi and Taita Taveta, western counties of Busia, Vihiga and Kakamega, Gusiiland counties of Nyamira and Kisii and Nairobi. ODM has also, in the past, performed exemplary in Maasailand counties.  

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna believes that the party is losing popularity due to its association with President William Ruto and the UDA government.

“People are running away from the party not because we have done anything wrong but because of its association with Ruto and UDA,” Sifuna said.

Last weekend, ODM announced that it will only hold party primaries in Kaspul and Ugunja in Homa Bay and Siaya counties, respectively.

Conspicuously missing from the ODM statement on the list of nominees or areas to conduct primaries issued on Friday was Nyamira County which has three ward by-elections in Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya and Ekerenyo.

The exclusion of Nyamira was not by default, as it emerges that no single aspirant had sought the Orange party ticket in a county which overwhelmingly voted for Raila in the last elections.

Raila’s Azimio coalition clinched all but one elective seat in Nyamira with UPA taking the Governor, ODM won Senate and two parliamentary seats in Borabu and Kitutu Masaba, while Jubilee clinched Woman Rep and West Mugirango constituencies.

Only Joash Nyamoko braved the strong Azimio wave to retain his North Mugirango parliamentary seat on a UDA ticket.

“No one is interested in our party anymore, unlike the pas,t where it was a matter of do or die. Looks like our supporters have left the party,” an ODM insider said.

Former Nyamira branch chairman Richard Kaka says no serious candidate is showing interest, citing recent party grassroots elections where most seats were not contested.  

"ODM used to have the most competitive nominations, but the situation has changed. Both in Kisii and Nyamira, the party couldn’t even find persons to replace some of us after we left,’ Kaka says.

However, in Nairobi, the party is optimistic that its support is still intact in spite of what may be happening in other regions.

Over the weekend, Nairobi branch Chairman and Makadara MP George Aladwa hosted a meeting of all sub-branch chairs drawn from the 17 constituencies in a Kilimani hotel to evaluate the ODM party’s strength.

“ODM is still a force to reckon with in our county. I dare say its still the most popular in Nairobi and will still win the majority seats in 2027,” Aladwa said.

ODM controls the majority of the 85 wards in Nairobi, while the party got 8 out of the 17 parliamentary seats as well as Woman Rep and Senate in the capital city; a grip that is now being threatened.

Raila will lead his ODM brigade to mark its 20th anniversary in Mombasa next month as the party plans a huge carnival where founding members have been invited.