The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has scheduled the Mbeere North by-election for November 27, following President Ruto’s appointment of Geoffrey Ruku as Cabinet Secretary for Public Service.
In Mount Kenya, the mini-polls have attracted the attention of three key figures—former President Uhuru Kenyatta (Kiambu), former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (Nyeri) and former Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi (Embu).
Each is seeking to stamp authority in their backyard through their respective parties—Jubilee, Democracy for the Citizen Party and Democratic Party as they position themselves as the face of opposition to President William Ruto’s UDA.
Political analysts argue that the by-election offers the three leaders a golden opportunity to test their machinery, consolidate grassroots networks and position their parties as formidable challengers to UDA’s dominance in Mount Kenya.
They have described the upcoming mini polls as a “dress rehearsal” for the 2027 general election.
Speaking to the Star, Kiambu Senator Karungo Thangw’a said that the race will provide the clearest indication yet of whether the Mount Kenya region, long considered the political heartbeat of the country, can sustain a unified opposition front against Ruto’s UDA party.
“The Mbeere North poll is a litmus test. Whoever emerges victorious will be in high demand in 2027. But if the opposition leaders treat this like sibling rivalry, they will gift UDA the win,” Thangwa said.
He said that whoever emerges victorious will be in high demand in 2027, noting that the opposition parties will agree on a single candidate.
“The DCP candidate Duncan Mbui is currently the most popular, having been elected as an independent MCA in 2022. Each party has its candidate, but we will sit down and agree on the way forward.
The rivalry among opposition parties is like sibling rivalry, and it will be resolved. In the end, we will unite against UDA and President William Ruto,” he said.
The senator said Mount Kenya residents have fallen out with Ruto and are now rallying behind Gachagua, noting that UDA has little support in the region despite the President picking Kithure Kindiki as his deputy.
Party of Democratic Unity national chairman Issaiah Gichu dismissed claims that Mount Kenya is under the firm grip of any single political outfit, saying the region remains open and competitive.
He said that the upcoming Mbeere North by-election will attract several aspirants from different parties, making it clear that no one party can claim dominance.
Gichu affirmed that PDU will field its own candidate, stressing that the contest will not be a four-horse race as perceived, but a wide-open battle reflecting the region’s shifting political landscape.
“Let no one deceive you that Mount Kenya belongs to a particular party. The ground is wide open, and the people are ready to make their own choices. In Mbeere North, you will see candidates from different parties, including our own PDU.
This will not be a four-horse race — it will be a true contest that reflects the voice of the people.” The Mbeere North parliamentary seat felt vacant after Geoffrey Ruku’s was appointment to the Cabinet.
Ruku had won the seat in 2022 on a DP ticket, replacing none other than his party leader Justin Muturi, who was dropped from the Cabinet. Ironically, the CS now finds himself working under the UDA government, raising questions over his loyalty to his party in the looming contest.
To guarantee win DP, Muturi has wasted no time as a together with Devolution Empowerment Party (DEP) chairperson Lenny Kivuti unveiled Newton Kariuki (Karish) as DP’s flagbearer, praising his grassroots record in Muminji ward.
Notably, Newton Karish was elected in 2022 as MCA on the DEP ticket, with analysts arguing that with Kivuti’s decision to cede his candidate to DP underscores Muturi’s interest to recapture the seat back.
“We are proud to present Newton Karish as our candidate. His roots are in this community, and he understands its needs,” Muturi told supporters at Kanyuombora grounds.
Immediately after surrendering its candidate to Muturi’s DP Party, DEP announced that it would still field its own contender to recapture the seat left vacant by Karish. On its part, DCP led by Gachagua, is banking on Duncan Mbui, the Evurore MCA elected as an independent in 2022, to deliver victory.
Speaking during a community forum last week, Mbui said that he is the best candidate for the seat promising to join the former DP to make Ruto a one-term president.
“Nimesema nitaungana na Gachagua kumpeleka Ruto nyumbani na kuhakikisha anakuwa rais wa muhula mmoja, elect me and I will bring development to our people,’’ he said.
Nyandarua Senator John Methu, who had accompanied Mbui, also rallied support for the DCP candidate, urging residents to reject UDA. He said Mount Kenya voters are only waiting for 2027 to punish Ruto and send him home, adding that electing DCP candidates in Mbeere North would be a clear show of support for the former DP.
The Jubilee Party, led by Uhuru, has gone historic—nominating Jacob Mbao, the first deaf aspirant to vie for a parliamentary seat in Kenya. Although Jubilee hasn’t further announced development after announcing its candidate, political observers argue that the party is currently holding grassroot mobilisation not only in Mbeere North but across Mount Kenya eyeing its revival ahead of the 2027.
Uhuru recently chaired the Jubilee’s national executive committee meeting. Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni said the meeting was a step toward affirming the direction the party will take moving forward. He added that it was also an opportunity to renew Jubilee’s founding principles and unity.
UDA, meanwhile, has confirmed it will front a single candidate through consensus or primaries, with Kindiki leading consultations alongside Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire and Ruku.
In a statement issued on last week via its official social media platforms, the party said the DP met all aspirants seeking the ticket. Among those eyeing the ticket includes Leonard Muriuki, Murage Njagagua, Muriuki Njagagua, Justus Kariuki Mate, Konji Waya, Stephen Makindu and Daniel Bongo.
“The United Democratic Alliance party will, by consensus or party primaries, settle on a single candidate to fly our flag in the upcoming by-election to elect the next Member of Parliament for Mbeere North Constituency,” the statement read.
Former Ichagaki MCA Charles Ng’ang’a warned that the by-elections could “raise political temperatures” nationally.
“These mini-polls will polarise the country further, and development agendas will stall as leaders retreat into political battlefields,” Ng’ang’a said.
Political analyst John Wahinya echoed Nga’ng’a’s contentment, noting that the contest is more than just replacing an MP.
He argued that the polls will “signal the strength of the opposition bloc in Mount Kenya ahead of 2027.”
“If Jubilee, DCP and DP split votes, UDA will walk away with the seat. If they unite, it will mark the first serious challenge to Ruto’s dominance in the mountain,” he explained.
Wahinya also argued that some other fringe parties in the Mount Kenya region have also declared interests to field the candidates noting that the race will highly be very competitive.
Thuo Mathenge, The New Democrats Party leader cautioned against attempts to arm-twist Mount Kenya voters, insisting that the region has the right to chart its own political path.
