EXPLAINER: What Kenya stands to lose if Non-NATO ally status is reviewed

Kenya recently achieved a significant milestone as it became the first sub-Saharan African nation designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) by the United States.

The Major Non-NATO Ally designation is a unique classification under US law and it signifies a deep strategic and security partnership with the United States.

The designation demonstrates the United States' deep respect and close relationship with the designated country.

This status, formalized on June 24, 2024, underscored a deepening strategic partnership between Nairobi and Washington.

Former President Joe Biden had pledged the designation during Kenyan President William Ruto's visit to Washington in May 2024, describing it as ‘a fulfilment of years of collaboration.

Kenya's designation was a recognition of its years of collaboration and its willingness to lead a multinational security mission in Haiti.

Now, this pivotal partnership faces scrutiny with a US Congressional review underway.

Senator Jim Risch, chairperson of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has introduced an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, calling for an assessment of Kenya's MNNA status.

The current US Congressional review, spearheaded by Senator Jim Risch, stems from multiple concerns.

A primary focus is on assessing whether American intelligence and military support has been implicated in actions against civilians. These include abductions, torture, or violence. This highlights a critical human rights dimension to the US-Kenya partnership.

Another significant driver is Kenya's perceived global alignments. Senator Risch's amendment specifically scrutinizes Kenya's military, political, and financial relationships with China, Russia, and Iran.

The uncertainty surrounding Kenya's pledged deployment of 1,000 police officers to Haiti, a mission strongly backed by the US, is also a factor in the congressional amendments.

“An assessment of relationship of Kenya with the United States in countering violent extremism, achieving and maintaining peace and security in Sub-Saharan Africa and in Haiti, as a United Nations peacekeeping troop contributing country, and as an economic partner.

“A detailed description of the military and security relationship of the Government of Kenya with the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and Iran, including any engagements, agreements, or joint activities since June 24, 2024.”

These concerns underscore the conditional nature of the MNNA status, which is granted based on perceived alignment with US national interests.

The US expectation is that MNNA partners should align their foreign policy, at least implicitly, with US strategic interests.

Kenya, a key regional player in security and stability, must now navigate these complex dynamics. Its ability to maintain its strategic partnerships while upholding its national interests will be crucial in the evolving global landscape.

Pressure from the US could inadvertently push Kenya further into the orbit of rival global powers if Nairobi perceives its sovereignty or non-alignment principles are being challenged.

However, according to Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary, Korir Sing’Oei, the review would be done with the Kenya’s independence and its interests.

“No need to be too excited SC @Paul_Muite. The issues canvassed in the congressional bill will be comprehensively addressed, taking into account Kenya’s sovereignty and interests,” he said.

A potential review or revocation carries significant implications for Nairobi, as it could impact Kenya's military capabilities, economic prospects, and its standing on the global stage.

Military and Security

A review or revocation of Kenya's MNNA status would directly impact its military and security cooperation with the United States.

Kenya would lose privileged access to US defence equipment and advanced military technologies. This includes eligibility for loans of material, supplies or equipment for cooperative research, development, testing or evaluation purposes.

The ability to host US-owned War Reserve Stockpiles on its territory will also be removed.

Training agreements, where financial arrangements are reciprocal, would also be jeopardized and Kenyan firms will not be able to bid on contracts for maintenance, repair, or overhaul of US Department of Defence equipment outside the United States.

Funding cuts for counter-terrorism research and development projects, such as those related to explosives detection devices, which would specifically impact ongoing efforts, such as the expansion of Manda Bay airfield.

These losses eventually translate into degradation of Kenya's operational capabilities and its interoperability with US forces in critical regional security theaters, particularly in the ongoing fight against terrorism.

Diplomatic and Economic consequences

The MNNA designation serves as a powerful diplomatic endorsement, which increases commercial confidence and greenlights foreign investment.

Losing this status would mean a downgrade in the bilateral relationship and might affect Kenya's standing in the international community. This diplomatic shift could deter foreign direct investment into Kenya.

The United States remains a key voice in international financial institutions and investment forums. A downgraded relationship, even if not directly tied to MNNA status, could influence aid and lending decisions from global bodies.

This in turn influences investor confidence on whether to set up shop in Kenya or not.

The potential review of Kenya's Major Non-NATO Ally status presents a multifaceted challenge for Nairobi. The scrutiny reflects a US desire for closer alignment on human rights and geopolitical fronts.

Should the Bill be enacted, the Secretary of State, in coordination with the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Director of National Intelligence, shall commence a review of the major non-NATO status of Kenya and within 180 days submit to the appropriate committees of Congress a classified report containing the findings of the review.