Major hurdles Kalonzo, Gachagua face in battle against Ruto

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua face multiple hurdles in their quest to render William Ruto a first term-president — a Kenyan and an East African first.

The immediate challenge is the unity of the opposition, which some critics say is a union of convenience following the disgraceful ouster of Gachagua from government.

For months now, all the opposition bigwigs have insisted they are running for the country’s top job.

Other than Kalonzo and Gachagua, there is also People’s Liberation Movement leader Martha Karua and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa.

There are indications that former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, who is being fronted by President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, will also join the team.

Makunei Senator Dan Maanzo on Friday told the Star the opposition will hold together contrary to the expectations of the naysayers.

The Wiper lawmaker dismissed speculations of a possible split before the 2027 polls.

“We are going to hold together until we send Ruto home. It is the people who are binding us together and even if one leader decides to bolt out, the people will not,” Maanzo said.

But apart from the challenge of holding together, the team also faces other challenges, including expanding their political strongholds.

Unlike Ruto who enjoys the benefits of incumbency, the Kalonzo-Riggy G axis will also face the reality of massive financial resources required to mount a consequential presidential campaign.

Already, there are talks of government infiltration amid a threat of weak financial muscle that makes some of their key lieutenants gullible to state persuasion.

President Ruto’s administration has a say over key institutions, including security agencies.

It also has a vast network of civil servants who can influence electoral outcomes. 

In the 2022 election, Ruto's side lamented how an extensive network of the provincial administration were used by state functionaries to rally support for ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is also in play.

Kalonzo and Gachagua are already working on ways to counter these disadvantages and are heavily mobilising grassroots support.

Dismissing the notion of a solid incumbency, Maanzo who is also the Wiper deputy secretary general, said President Ruto has lost touch with Kenyans and it will take a miracle to win re-election.

“Anybody contesting against Ruto will defeat him. He has lost touch with the common man who voted him to power,” Maanzo said.

Ruto critics have been exposing perceived government failures in economic management, corruption, and governance, with Gachagua taking a lead role.

The otherwise unsettling sound bytes have been echoed by former Speaker Justin Muturi.

Analysts say that it would be crucial for Kalonzo and Gachagua to maintain loyalty among themselves and their supporters.

“Any signs of mistrust or defections could fracture their alliance before it gains traction,” Javas Bigambo, a political analyst, said.

Historically, regimes have used intelligence operatives, cash inducements, and political coercion to weaken opposition outfits.

Pundits say state-sponsored sabotage, including legal battles, smear campaigns, or co-option into government, could be in play in 2027 too. 

Prof Gitile Naituli, a political commentator, said that for Kalonzo and Gachagua to mount a serious challenge in 2027, they must address the critical issues decisively.

“If they succeed in consolidating opposition forces, mobilising finances, and presenting a credible alternative, they could reshape Kenya’s political future,” the ex-NCIC commissioner said.

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa said they don’t foresee any challenges “as the axis is made up of a seasoned team that was with Mwai Kibaki”.

Speaking on the sidelines of the second Kibaki memorial lecture, Eugene said he sees an opposition team that understands the history of the country.

He spoke of lessons of how a divided opposition in 1992 and 1997 handed the Kanu regime a lifeline, and how unity changed the story in 2002.

“We are very clear and know where the landmines are and how to navigate around them,” Eugene said.

“This is a NARC moment and coming back to Serena where Kibaki started the journey with Wamalwa and [Charity] Ngilu, is seeing a reincarnation of the 2002 journey,” the DAP-K boss said.

Former UNCTAD chief Mukhisa Kituyi said it was too early to discuss the developments around opposition unity.

“It has not even started. We are still in the phase of confidence building,” he said.

Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara said it was still too early and that they were just laying the ground.

President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance has access to state resources therefore poised to set up a well-funded campaign machinery.

In contrast, Kalonzo’s Wiper Party and Gachagua’s faction have to lobby for financial support to run an effective nationwide campaign.

Business leaders and donors who may be disillusioned with the Ruto administration could be their go-to sources. 

On selecting a joint presidential candidate, opposition coalitions have in the past collapsed due to competing ambitions.

While Kalonzo may see himself as the natural flag-bearer being a seasoned politician, Gachagua could also demand the top seat, given his Mt Kenya backyard’s significance. 

Political observers have held that should they fail to agree on a candidate, their alliance would split votes, handing Ruto an easy victory.

While both Gachagua and Kalonzo have made known their ambitions, insiders told the Star of ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations.

The talks are, among others, aimed at building a giant coalition that would be the 2027 vehicle for the united opposition.

Tellingly, Maanzo told the Star of ongoing meetings to come up with an agreeable name of the new coalition that would onboard all the opposition figures.

“Right now I am going to a meeting where we are trying to agree on the name of the new coalition,” Maanzo said.

According to the senator, the new political vehicle will be unveiled once the ex-DP announces his new political party.

The Star has established that Gachagua’s new party could be unveiled on May 31.

Maanzo also hinted of a possibility of courting ODM boss Raila Odinga who has of late sent mixed reactions on his 2027 political game plan.

“Raila might not go to the ballot with Ruto in 2027, you heard of his statement in Mombasa last week. Most likely everyone will go its way,” Maanzo said.

Last week, Raila said the Orange party will field candidates in all positions including the Presidency at a time when he is expected to rally support for Ruto.

“I did not enter into this marriage with the state to betray Kenyans. Kenya is bigger and more important than any individual.

“Kenyans must unite and work together. But during electioneering, ODM will also contest,” Raila said in Mombasa last week Saturday.

Elections are three years away, a time frame that will test whether the opposition chiefs can rise above their personal ambitions.

Only time will tell if Kalonzo and Gachagua’s alliance can withstand the pressures and emerge as a formidable force in 2027.