Which way for Mudavadi if Ruto picks Kindiki as DP?

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is experienced, highly competent, a non-flamboyant achiever and a natural choice, but likely thwarted by regional electoral arithmetic.

All indications point to Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as the likely replacement of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, should the Senate uphold his impeachment by the National Assembly. 

Mudavadi, who naturally harbours presidential ambitions come 2032, would quite possibly have been guaranteed Ruto's backing, had it not been for the entry into the equation of highly competent and trusted CS Kindiki.

Already, the Amani National Congress, a party associated with Mudavadi, is in the process of merging with Ruto’s UDA.

Mudavadi, who resigned as ANC party leader after his nomination as Prime Cabinet Secretary, has even assured party members that they are safe in Ruto’s hands, and committed not to sponsor candidates against the President in 2027.

“Would it be fair if I am the Prime Cabinet Secretary and then I sponsor a candidate to take on the person who appointed me to the position? It is a serious conflict of interest,” Mudavadi said when UDA and ANC announced the merger in June.

Western Kenya leaders have been rallying behind Mudavadi as Ruto's successor in 2032, while Mt Kenya region bet on Gachagua before his falling out with the President. 

MPs from Mt Kenya West region recently endorsed Kindiki as their preferred link to Ruto, praising his ability to represent the region’s interests within the national government.

Political analyst Fred Sasia said while Mudavadi may be the more qualified of the two, regional dynamics are likely to trump merit in this decision.

“This is the unfortunate reality of Kenyan politics, where regional affiliations often outweigh competence. As the situation unfolds, one thing remains clear: if Gachagua is impeached, the next Deputy President will most likely hail from the Mt Kenya region, leaving Mudavadi’s political future in a precarious balance. The die is cast, and the game is set for a fascinating political battle ahead,” he told the Star.

Sasia said the President’s options for a new deputy are further constrained by the important role the Mt Kenya region played in securing his presidency.

As such, Sasia said it is highly likely that Ruto will opt for someone from Mt Kenya, placing Kindiki in a more favourable position than Mudavadi.

Kindiki is also hands-on, business-like, results-oriented and not a publicity seeker.

DAP-Kenya deputy party leader Ayub Savula said Mudavadi has the task of delivering Western to Ruto in 2027 in order to get his backing.

Sasia said Mudavadi should consolidate the region with the help of National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya, who recently joined Ruto’s administration.

“We’re preparing Mudavadi for 2032 and this will make sense if they are able to deliver Western as a bloc, so they can ask Ruto to return the favour in 2032,” he said.

Savula, who is also Kakamega’s deputy governor, maintained that top leaders from Western need to deliver the Western vote bloc to Ruto in 2027, after uniting under the broad-based government.

Even so, some MPs from Western are pushing for Mudavadi as the next DP, highlighting that he would indisputably be able to deliver the region to Ruto if given the seat.

MPs Christopher Aseka (Khwisero), Titus Khamala (Lurambi) and Peter Nabulindo (Matungu) have been leading a team pushing for a Mudavadi take-over.

“He has served as a vice president, held senior ministerial positions and was even a deputy prime minister at some point. No other politician in Kenya holds such credentials. Mudavadi should therefore be appointed the next Deputy President,” Nabulindo said.

Khamala said they will happily welcome Mudavadi’s appointment “so that we can work with plans for 2032”.

Political commentator Joseph Mutua said Ruto will easily convince Western to support him in 2027, arguing persuasively that the region holds senior positions in his administration.

He said the DP position would remain in Mt Kenya for purposes of the 2027 elections.

“Even if Ruto will not marshal as many votes, he will be able to get a substantial amount even if it is 50 per cent, and then look for more from places like Western and Nyanza,” he explained.

Mutua was, however, quick to point out the big problem will be in 2032.

“If he picks a deputy from Mt Kenya, the region will be keen to go all the way to 2032. Mt Kenya will not easily support any other person in that election,” he said.

“It will be a delicate balancing act for Ruto if he secures a second term.”

Pundits believe Ruto is keen not to lose Mt Kenya region, which will be critical to propel his presidential candidature in the 2027 polls.

In the 2022 election, 3.5 million of Ruto's 7.1 million votes came from Mt Kenya.

In Western, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga garnered 955,185 votes, compared to Kenya Kwanza's 611,475 votes in the five counties of Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Trans Nzoia and Vihiga.

Mt Kenya region alone gave Ruto 47 per cent of the vote that made him President. Around 87 per cent of the region voted for Ruto.

With the absence of Gachagua, Kindiki is said to be better placed to consolidate Mt Kenya.

A recent opinion poll ranked Kindiki as the most preferred replacement for Gachagua.

The Infotrak poll showed at least 20 per cent of the respondents preferred the Interior CS to all other possible choices.

Respondents picked Kindiki based on track record in his docket and experience in the political arena.

Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru and Mudavadi tied at five per cent each.

Former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo recently said most UDA leaders preferred Kindiki over Gachagua for the running mate position during the 2022 elections

Ruto’s decision went against the majority preference of his political allies, he said.

Kabogo said 26 UDA politicians convened to vote on potential running mates for Ruto during the presidential campaign.

He said an overwhelming majority of 21 participants favoured Kindiki for the position. Gachagua reportedly received only three votes, with Waiguru and CS Justin Muturi each securing one vote.

Sasia said recent realignment within the Kenya Kwanza government, now including opposition figures, is both a blessing and a curse.

“On one hand, it gives President Ruto the perfect chance to reward his loyalists and those aligned with his vision,” he said.

“With the impeachment of the Deputy President, the President is now entangled in a high-stakes quandary about who to appoint as his next deputy. Political manoeuvring has intensified, shaped by regional dynamics and the strategic calculations of the 2027 and 2032 elections.”

Sasia said Mudavadi, widely respected as a sober, statesmanlike figure, has long been seen as presidential material.

He said his calm demeanour, vast experience and strategic mind have earned him a high level of regard across the political spectrum.

The expert added, “The brutal reality of Kenya’s political landscape, however, might make it hard for him to realise his presidential ambitions.”