Every election cycle in Kenya seems to produce a familiar political formula: rival leaders set aside their differences, parties merge into mega-coalitions and a new political alliance is presented as the vehicle to power.
The latest entrant is The Ukombozi Alliance (TUA), born out of the rebranding of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition as the country edges closer to the 2027 General Election.
But Ukombozi is walking a familiar path.
Before its rebranding, Azimio was a political coalition comprising more than 26 political parties, according to records from the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties.
It was formed through the efforts of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta to help the late Raila Odinga win the presidency in 2022.
Like the coalitions before it, Azimio brought together political parties and leaders with a common objective: taking power.
Kenya’s history is littered with such political marriages.
The Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), Jubilee Alliance, National Super Alliance (NASA), Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and Kenya Kwanza have all at different times brought together politicians and parties seeking to challenge the establishment or capture State power.
The original FORD was formed by the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Masinde Muliro, Charles Rubia and other politicians to challenge the late President Daniel arap Moi in the 1992 General Election.
But the unity did not last.
FORD split into FORD-Kenya and FORD-Asili, led by Jaramogi and the late Kenneth Matiba respectively. Moi went on to defeat the divided opposition in Kenya’s first multiparty election.
Ten years later, another coalition emerged.
NARC was formed in 2002 by the late Mwai Kibaki, Michael Kijana Wamalwa, Raila and former Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, among others, to challenge Uhuru Kenyatta, then President Moi’s preferred successor.
The coalition won, ushering Kibaki into State House.
Then came Jubilee.
In 2013, Uhuru and President William Ruto brought together The National Alliance (TNA) and the United Republican Party (URP) to form the Jubilee Alliance.
At the time, the two were facing charges against humanity at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands.
Their political partnership proved formidable. They defeated Raila, then Prime Minister, who contested the presidency on the CORD ticket alongside Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) leader Kalonzo Musyoka, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and other leaders.
In 2017, the Uhuru-Ruto partnership, popularly known as UhuRuto, grew stronger under Jubilee as they faced Raila’s NASA.
They won the presidential election, but their victory was later annulled by then Chief Justice David Maraga after Raila and NASA challenged the results.
The political script changed again in 2022.
Uhuru and Raila joined forces under Azimio, while Ruto built the Kenya Kwanza coalition and eventually won the presidency.
Now, as 2027 approaches, history appears to be repeating itself.
The rebranded Ukombozi Alliance is positioning itself as the latest opposition vehicle, with former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka at the helm.
Its immediate challenge is formidable: President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) working with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Kalonzo is confident that Ukombozi can succeed where previous alliances have stumbled.
“We are going to have a 2002 moment; we will defeat Ruto by over 70 per cent, provided we remain united as opposition,” he said.
Ruto, however, has dismissed the opposition’s prospects, arguing that it lacks a clear agenda for the country.
“We should not give space to any political experiments with people who don't have agenda or vision for the country. We want to tell our friends that we will defeat them early in the morning, and there is nothing they will do,” said Ruto.
That leaves Ukombozi facing the question that has haunted Kenya’s political coalitions for decades: can an alliance built around defeating an incumbent remain united once the common enemy is gone?
Political analyst Herman Manyora believes the coalition could face the same pressures that have fractured previous alliances.
“The history of political coalitions in Kenya has been constant; most face internal wrangles and eventual disintegration after achieving their goal,” he said.
According to Manyora, competing interests are often at the heart of such fallouts.
And while Uhuru may provide stewardship during the coalition’s formative stages, despite his announced departure from Azimio’s leadership, Manyora cautions that this alone cannot guarantee its survival beyond the 2027 election.
“While Uhuru may provide stewardship in the initial stages – despite his announced departure from Azimio’s leadership – that is not a strong assurance that the coalition will remain intact post-2027,” he said.
For Ukombozi, therefore, the 2027 contest is about more than defeating Ruto.
It is also a test of whether Kenya’s latest political marriage can survive the election that brought it together.
