Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro’s entry into the presidential contest has injected a new dynamic into the race amid growing concerns that a fractured opposition could split the anti-Ruto vote.
Nyoro’s declaration came just days after Siaya Governor James Orengo also announced his presidential bid, throwing the Linda Mwananchi brigade into fresh uncertainty.
The competing ambitions come as the opposition grapples with identifying a single presidential flag bearer.
While Nyoro has openly declared his intention to seek the joint opposition presidential ticket, his entry has not been warmly received by DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua and his allies.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru has labelled Nyoro deceitful and dismissed his presidential bid as part of what he described as a wider strategy to divide the Mt Kenya vote.
“People already know that the party belongs to (President William) Ruto and that their objective is to divide the Mt Kenya votes. Within the next few months, the truth will come out,” Gathiru said.
The same concerns have been echoed by allies of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, signalling potential hurdles for Nyoro as he seeks to build alliances within the opposition.
“There are many questions about what is happening between Nyoro and Ruto,” Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a key Kalonzo ally, said.
“The issues of Kenya Power shares and shares in other companies need to be explained. There is a past between him and Ruto that is not clear for us.”
With this suspicion hanging over his bid, there are growing fears that Nyoro could go all the way to the ballot.
His candidature could eat into the Mt Kenya vote, potentially giving Ruto an advantage in what is expected to be a closely fought presidential election.
In 2022, Ruto defeated Raila Odinga by just about 200,000 votes, underscoring how even a relatively small shift in the vote could prove decisive in 2027.
But Nyoro, who leads the People’s Party of Kenya, says he is best placed to face President Ruto and deliver a victory.
As such, he wants opposition leaders, among them Kalonzo Musyoka and Gachagua, to rally behind him as their single candidate.
“I don’t believe there is a person more prepared in Kenya to lead this country than Ndindi Nyoro. I can beat Ruto hands down,” he said in a televised interview.
While the assertion ended months of speculation over his political plans after his bitter fallout with Ruto, it has triggered a fresh crisis for the opposition.
The lawmaker wants the Kalonzo team to join his cause.
“I am canvassing with opposition leaders to buy into our agenda then go have serious consultations and get one ticket,” he said.
The declaration has, however, immediately raised questions within opposition circles.
Of particular concern are its implications for former Deputy President Gachagua’s attempt to consolidate the Mt Kenya vote. Nyoro and Gachagua come from the same political backyard.
For months, Gachagua has positioned himself as the region’s kingpin and a key figure in the opposition’s effort to unseat Ruto.
Gachagua has described Nyoro’s outfit as yet ‘another wheelbarrow’ allegedly being positioned to divide the anti-Ruto vote.
His impact is debatable, even so.
“He won’t affect the support of Gachagua in the mountain much. He will not shake the race as he seems focused on being the deputy president, especially to (Linda Mwananchi’s Edwin) Sifuna,” political analyst Martin Andati said.
“Team Gachagua has already managed to brand him as a mole/traitor and he has not done much to dispel the same. He also comes out as largely indecisive, especially after talking so much about the economy and then running away during the crucial stage of voting,” Andati explained.
The competing bids have raised concerns that the opposition could enter the election divided despite widespread anti-government sentiment.
Already in Linda Mwananchi, Orengo’s position has stirred tension, with luminaries saying they only recognise Nairobi Senator Sifuna as the frontrunner.
For Gachagua’s allies, Nyoro had been close to Ruto for years. They are therefore questioning his political break with the President.
They hold that the MP opposed Gachagua even before the former DP was impeached and used his position as Budget Committee chairman to build influence among MPs.
“He was moving with MPs in choppers every weekend, dishing out goodies. He was using the seat of Budget Committee chairman to rule MPs, and undermine Gachagua,” Gathiru said.
They further cited Nyoro’s conduct during Gachagua’s impeachment, arguing that his decision to abstain from voting exposed his political calculations.
“He should have showed direction but decided to abstain. He remained quiet until he was removed from Budget committee,” he said.
Gathiru further claimed Nyoro could eventually join the opposition caucus, only to walk away if he is not given the presidential ticket.
He also challenged Nyoro to explain his past business links with Ruto and suggested he could be part of efforts to create a third force.
“He is no threat. The people understand. Let him come out and explain his business links with Ruto,” Gathiru said.
Maanzo, argued that Nyoro had not sufficiently demonstrated that he had broken with the President.
“We believe he is playing a Kenneth Matiba card. He has not gelled with the opposition, and is a self-declared party leader,” he said.
Maanzo said the opposition could not afford to field two presidential candidates from the same region.
“We can’t have two candidates from one region so karata yake tunaionea 18,” he said.
He also questioned Orengo’s presidential bid, arguing that the competition could weaken rather than strengthen the opposition.
Political communication consultant and analyst Eric Kigara said Nyoro risked following the path taken by former presidential aspirant Peter Kenneth.
He argued Nyoro had entered a political lane where Gachagua already had a head start.
“Kenneth’s mistake was drifting between coalitions for a decade without ever picking a lane decisively enough to be trusted with real power. Nyoro just picked a lane nobody in Mt Kenya is currently travelling on,” Kigara said.
He said Nyoro’s biggest challenge would be whether voters and opposition leaders can trust him enough to hand him the mantle.
“Whether he has the trust is now the only question that matters, and right now, the evidence is not on his side.”
Kiambu Senator Karungo wa Thang’wa, another Gachagua ally, said, “Ndindi Nyoro is a spy. If you bring him in as a party leader, he will listen to your plans and report back to William Ruto!”
Political commentator Mutahi Ngunyi has previously suggested that the emerging political contest involving younger leaders could have a longer-term objective beyond the 2027 election.
“Come 2032, we will have a Generational Succession. For Nyoro and Sifuna, 2027 is just a dry run trial,” Ngunyi said.
He asked, “What is wrong if Ruto created both of them? Clever?”
Nyoro insists his ambition is genuine, saying he has spent months studying the country’s problems and consulting political leaders on how to build a new political platform.
“I have taken time to look at things we must do as the opposition so that as we change the leadership, we just don’t change the leadership but the fundamentals of the country and especially economically speaking,” he said.
