A strengthening El Niño coupled with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to reshape Kenya's weather in the coming months. /WMO
UNICEF is calling for urgent investment in child-critical response measures as El Niño rains approach, warning that more than 162 million children in Eastern and Southern Africa face heightened risks from climate-related shocks.
UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa Etleva Kadilli said the risks to children were growing as the weather phenomenon intensified, threatening nutrition, health, education, safety and access to safe water and sanitation.
“Across the region, children are facing food and water insecurity, overstretched health services and disrupted learning. Further, major climate shocks will likely push children and the systems they rely on to breaking point,” Kadilli said.
UNICEF assessments have identified urgent and potential risks for children in Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Zambia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
El Niño can bring heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas while triggering severe dry conditions, drought and extreme heat in others.
UNICEF said these conditions were already affecting children in parts of the region.
Recent studies indicate that climate change is making the 2026/2027 El Niño more intense than previously episodes, according to forecasts cited by UNICEF.
The agency said this provided a critical window for countries to act before the most severe consequences were felt.
More than two-thirds of children in Eastern and Southern Africa could be affected by the severe weather conditions.
In Somalia, flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people under the most severe scenario, while tens of thousands of children are likely to be affected in Ethiopia, particularly in areas already facing severe food insecurity.
In South Sudan, drought, extreme heat and localised flooding threaten to deepen food insecurity and malnutrition, increase disease outbreaks and compound the risks of famine and large-scale displacement.
However, UNICEF said less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance was currently available for anticipatory action.
“We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them. The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price,” Kadilli said.
“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear.”
UNICEF has urged countries to invest urgently in child-critical response measures before the impacts of El Niño peak.
The agency said it requires US$173 million (Sh22.39 billion) to meet existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children requirements and reach children and families with anticipatory and life-saving assistance across the 13 priority countries.
UNICEF said acting on forecasts before the effects of El Niño intensify can protect children while delivering significant savings in future recovery costs.
According to the agency, every dollar invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to $15 in future recovery costs.
UNICEF wants countries to scale up nutrition services by pre-positioning life-saving supplies and expanding early screening and treatment for malnutrition.
It is also calling on governments to strengthen health and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems through improved disease surveillance, essential vaccination campaigns, health services and access to safe water and sanitation.
Countries have also been urged to protect children's education by reinforcing school infrastructure and preparing safe alternative learning spaces before disruptions occur.
Governments should further strengthen measures to protect children from violence and exploitation, including by expanding psychosocial support, family tracing and reunification services, and measures to prevent gender-based violence.
UNICEF is also calling for stronger shock-responsive social protection systems, including linking early-warning systems to anticipatory cash assistance and other social protection measures.
The agency said governments should also build the capacity of state-led systems to respond to future climate and humanitarian shocks, rather than waiting for disasters to occur before mobilising assistance.
