Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is going flat out to lock down his Mt Kenya East backyard, in what appears to be his best strategy for retaining his job in 2027.
Mt Kenya West, largely dominated by the Kikuyu, has rebelled against the ruling UDA party, weakening Kindiki’s political profile and influence in the wider Mt Kenya region.
The DP has since camped at home, scouring through Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi, especially after the Ol Kalou by-election was decisively won by Rigathi Gachagua’s party.
On Friday, Kindiki held a grassroots leaders’ event in Manyatta constituency, Embu county, sustaining his push to consolidate the region.
Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi had a combined 1.34 million registered voters in the 2022 general election—772,139 in Meru, 334,302 in Embu and 231,932 in Tharaka Nithi.
Some analysts say having Kindiki on the ticket could also earn President William Ruto pockets of Kikuyu support, despite the growing political rebellion in Mt Kenya West.
The move comes at a time when Ruto faces a tough opposition challenge, forcing the President to rethink his number two as he seeks to secure a second term.
ODM has made clear it wants the number two slot under the broad-based arrangement beyond 2027.
Party leader Senator Oburu Oginga has repeatedly laid claim to the position.
Speaking at State House three weeks ago, Oburu said while ODM would not field a presidential candidate, all other positions were negotiable, including the DP’s slot.
Apart from Kindiki, Ruto is said to be looking at Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and ODM Cabinet secretaries Wycliffe Oparanya, Hassan Joho and John Mbadi.
Other names floated include Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.
"Today, the whole of Kenya must see that we have spoken in one voice,” Kindiki said in Embu on Friday.
"We have worked and President Ruto is 'tutam'. And I will deliver that message to the President."
Kindiki was accompanied by governors Cecily Mbarire (Embu), Isaac Mutuma (Meru), and Muthomi Njuki (Tharaka Nithi).
Also present were Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku and Embu Senator Alexander Mundigi.
Kindiki has camped in Mt Kenya East this month, stepping up efforts to consolidate the region as he strengthens his case to retain his job in 2027.
The DP has met thousands of elders, women, youth and grassroots leaders.
He has also activated UDA polling-centre networks.
Mt Kenya East could offer Ruto an important electoral foothold in Mt Kenya, where his support has deteriorated following his fallout with former DP Gachagua.
Retaining Kindiki could help Ruto hold Mt Kenya East while also preserving pockets of support in Mt Kenya West.
Dropping him could, on the other hand, risk alienating one of the few senior figures still positioned to campaign for the administration in the region.
Kindiki has spent August demonstrating he can deliver that support.
On August 7, he attended a traditional ceremony involving about 20,000 elders from Meru and Tharaka Nithi. A week later, he addressed more than 30,000 elders drawn from Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Mwea.
On August 21, he turned to the party machinery, meeting about 15,000 UDA grassroots officials in Tharaka Nithi and charging them with defending the government’s record at the polling-centre level.
The following day, he addressed more than 40,000 grassroots leaders and opinion shapers from Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kitui and Kirinyaga, delivering what amounted to a four-year scorecard for the Ruto administration.
His message has been consistent: Ruto has delivered and Mt Kenya East should judge the administration by its development record.
Kindiki has pointed to cheaper fertiliser, increased earnings from coffee, tea and milk, 100,000 additional teachers, expanded healthcare coverage under Taifa Care, electricity connections, roads, affordable housing and youth employment programmes.
The mobilisation appears designed to demonstrate not only Kindiki’s regional influence but also the political machinery he could bring to Ruto’s 2027 ticket.
An Infotrak survey released in July placed Kindiki at 34 per cent as the preferred running mate for Ruto nationally, ahead of Wanga at 11 per cent. He also led the Mt Kenya preference at 41 per cent, compared to 14 per cent for Waiguru.
The survey illustrates the regional trade-off Ruto would face if he replaced Kindiki.
Wanga led among respondents in Nyanza at 35 per cent, Mudavadi in Western at 28 per cent and Joho at the Coast with 60 per cent.
Replacing Kindiki could therefore strengthen Ruto’s claim to support in another region, but risk weakening his foothold in Mt Kenya. Retaining him could preserve that regional anchor, although it would not guarantee Ruto the bloc’s votes.
University professor Macharia Munene cautioned against assuming that Kindiki’s mobilisation will guarantee his retention.
Munene said Kindiki was fighting to protect his position as forces within Ruto’s camp manoeuvre to replace him.
“Some of Ruto’s forces, people who are around Ruto, seem to want to get rid of Kindiki,” he said, adding that those seeking the position were already making promises about what they could deliver.
“But the decision is not those people’s. It is Ruto’s. What does Ruto want?” Munene said, adding that “the likelihood that Kindiki will lose his job is very high”.
Professor Gitile Naituli, however, said Kindiki could undermine his ambitions by focusing on Mt Kenya East rather than seeking to consolidate the entire region.
“If he has plans of being President, he wants to be supported by the entire mountain—not one section,” Naituli, who hails from the region, said, arguing it was “mathematically impossible” to separate Mt Kenya into political blocs.
He said Kindiki should use his position as Deputy President to unite the region rather than campaign around its internal divisions.
“If you are meeting anywhere in the middle of Mt Kenya East, especially in the middle of Meru town, half of the people you will be talking to will be from the other side, Mt Kenya West. So where are you going to put the boundary?” Naituli posed.
Kindiki’s intensified campaign is thus as much about proving his value to Ruto as it is about consolidating his home region.
With the running-mate contest gathering pace, he is betting that a sizeable and organised Mt Kenya East bloc will make replacing him a much harder political calculation for the President.
