The battle for the control of the Council of Governors has begun in earnest, with political heavyweights plotting how to win a majority of the governor seats in the 2027 polls.
The governor seat is probably the country’s most lucrative seat apart from the presidency and the deputy presidency, with holders controlling billions of shillings.
The number of governors a political party is likely to win in the polls will also be a direct reflection of its grassroots strength, including the number of other elected leaders it is likely to secure.
The emerging contest was this week brought into the fore by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who proposed a political deal between his Democracy for Citizens Party and Wiper.
At a meeting with Wiper leaders at his Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri on Tuesday, Gachagua said the two parties should seek to win all governorships in their respective strongholds, while working together to take strategic counties outside their traditional bases.
He specifically spoke of the two parties securing the governorships of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi and Taita Taveta.
“Between our two parties, we will form the new government. And as we move ahead together, we will sweep Nairobi, and we are also getting Moha [Nyali MP Mohamed Ali] and Kilifi with Aisha Jumwa. We should also find a strategy to win Taita Taveta,” Gachagua said.
"Huyu Mohamed Ali ni mtu yangu ya DCP, lakini nimekubaliana na my cousin Kalonzo Musyoka kwamba asimame na Wiper Mombasa," Gachagua said when announcing the arrangement, adding that the CoG chairman will come from this formation”.
The decision is significant because Wiper has a long political association with the Coast, despite the dominance of ODM in recent elections. Kalonzo has cultivated support over successive elections.
In 2022, Wiper nominated former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko for the Mombasa governor's race, but he was blocked from the ballot after the IEBC rejected his nomination on eligibility grounds.
Gachagua and Kalonzo are now betting that Mohamed Ali can provide a stronger force to challenge ODM's hold on Mombasa. Ali has built a political base as Nyali MP, while Wiper brings the party structure and Kalonzo's established political networks, as well as the Kamba demographics.
The DCP leader has previously pushed to win all the governor positions in Mt Kenya, in Nairobi, Laikipia and Nakuru, and is also pushing to secure the positions in the Maa counties of Narok and Kajiado. In Kajiado, he is backing Senator Seki Lenku.
The Council of Governors brings together the 47 governors and provides a collective platform through which counties engage the national government on matters affecting devolution, funding and county functions.
Although the council is a non-partisan institution, the political alignment of governors can influence the balance of political power around its leadership. Nyeri Governor and close Gachagua ally Mutahi Kahiga served as the CoG deputy chairman.
Gachagua's remarks came against the backdrop of his efforts to consolidate Mt Kenya under DCP.
He has repeatedly called for the region to unite behind one political vehicle and has said he wants the party to win all elective seats in the region, including governorships.
His strategy is already receiving support from some sitting governors.
Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata and Nyandarua Governor Moses Badilisha have aligned themselves with DCP, while Kiambu’s Kimani Wamatangi is expected to join.
The opposition is now hoping that Mohamed Ali can combine his personal political following with Wiper's networks and Kalonzo's influence to mount a stronger challenge in 2027.
Gachagua has also backed former CS Aisha Jumwa for the Kilifi governorship after she moved from UDA to the opposition camp, and was last weekend proposed as Wiper deputy leader.
The proposed DCP-Wiper arrangement would give the opposition an opportunity to challenge ODM's influence along the Coast, while also preventing opposition parties from competing against each other.
The same calculation is expected to feature in other counties where political formations are seeking alliances ahead of the election.
On the other side of the political divide, President William Ruto's UDA and ODM are pursuing a partnership that could also reshape the gubernatorial contest.
The two parties are discussing political cooperation ahead of 2027, with their emerging arrangement expected to influence how they approach parliamentary and county contests.
Buoyed by their majority win in various by-elections, the broad-based team is also seeking to join hands and secure wins across their bastions of the Rift Valley, Nyanza, Northeastern, Nairobi and Northern Kenya.
A joint UDA-ODM strategy could see the parties zoning select counties, particularly where splitting their combined vote could hand victory to an opposition candidate.
It could also involve supporting incumbents or agreeing on candidates in counties where both parties have significant support.
The gubernatorial contest is likely to be particularly intense in counties where sitting governors are serving their final terms.
A number of governors elected in 2022 will not be eligible to seek another term in 2027, creating open contests that are expected to attract MPs, senators and other influential politicians.
These races could provide political formations with an opportunity to capture counties currently controlled by rival parties.
The political formations that succeed in securing a majority of governor seats would have a stronger presence in the counties and greater influence over the post-election political negotiations or landscape.
