A new survey by TIFA Research and Consulting has shown that a majority of ride-hailing users in Nairobi would turn to matatus more frequently if fares for ride-hailing services increased.
The survey, titled Impact of Fare Increases—Consumer Reactions to Higher Ride-Hailing Fares, found that 44 per cent of respondents would switch to using matatus more often, making public transport the most preferred alternative for consumers seeking more affordable travel options.
The findings indicate that higher ride-hailing fares could significantly alter the transport choices of Nairobi residents, with many consumers likely to prioritise cheaper alternatives.
Only 18 per cent of respondents said they would continue using ride-hailing services as usual despite fare increases.
A further 22 per cent said they would reduce their use of ride-hailing services. Of these, 11 per cent said they would use the services less often, while another 11 per cent said they would switch to cheaper ride-hailing options.
The survey also found that seven per cent of respondents would use boda bodas more frequently if ride-hailing fares increased.
Four per cent said they would walk more often, while three per cent indicated that they would rely more on their personal vehicles.
Another two per cent said they would stop using ride-hailing services altogether.
The findings highlight the price sensitivity of ride-hailing customers and the important role played by matatus in providing affordable transport options in Nairobi.
The survey also examined the broader economic significance of Kenya’s ride-hailing sector, noting that the industry provides livelihoods to hundreds of thousands of drivers and supports millions of household members directly and indirectly.
According to desk research data cited by TIFA, an estimated 300,000 to 350,000 active drivers participate in Kenya’s ride-hailing sector.
For 53 per cent of the drivers, ride-hailing is their primary source of income, while the remaining 47 per cent use the platforms to supplement earnings from other economic activities.
The research estimates that Kenya’s ride-hailing industry generates between Sh126 billion and Sh147 billion in total annual driver earnings.
The sector is also estimated to support between 1.2 million and 1.75 million household members through direct and indirect livelihoods.
The survey was conducted between July 17 and 21, 2026, across Nairobi County.
Data was collected through face-to-face, household-based interviews conducted mainly in Swahili and English.
The survey targeted members of the general public aged 18 years and above, including both male and female respondents.
A total of 733 respondents participated in the survey, with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent.
The findings suggest that any significant increase in ride-hailing fares could push a substantial number of consumers towards traditional public transport, particularly matatus, while others may reduce their trips or seek cheaper alternatives.
