Four years into President William Ruto’s administration, the cost-of-living debate remains one of the clearest measures of how Kenyans judge the economy.
Ruto took office on September 13, 2022, promising to tackle the high cost of living, which had become a dominant campaign issue.
At the time, households were grappling with elevated food and fuel prices, drought and global commodity shocks.
Four years later, the picture is mixed. Some essential food items are cheaper than they were around the start of his presidency, but fuel remains significantly more expensive.
Official inflation has also eased from the levels recorded at the beginning of the administration, although prices continue to rise.
Kenya’s annual inflation stood at 6.5 per cent in July 2026, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), compared with 8.5 per cent in August 2022, the month before Ruto assumed office.
But lower inflation does not mean prices have returned to 2022 levels.
Inflation measures the rate at which prices are changing, not whether the price of a commodity has returned to where it was four years ago.
That distinction is at the heart of the four-year cost-of-living scorecard.
Unga: Cheaper than 2022
Maize flour provides one of the clearest examples of an essential commodity that has become cheaper.
In February 2023, Ruto said the price of a two-kilogramme packet of unga had fallen from Sh230 to Sh180 and promised further reductions.
“Bei ya unga ilikua Sh230, sai tumeteremesha hadi Sh180,” he said, promising that the price would eventually fall to Sh140 and later Sh120.
Official KNBS-linked figures have since shown further reductions in the average price of sifted maize flour.
By 2025, the national average for a 2kg packet had fallen to the mid-Sh150s, although retail prices vary by brand, location and type of flour.
By 2026, the average price remained below the levels recorded during the 2022 transition.
The improvement is significant because unga occupies a special place in the Kenyan household budget and in the political debate over the cost of living.
Ruto’s administration has repeatedly pointed to fertiliser subsidies, which were reduced from Sh7,500 to Sh2,500, increased agricultural production and measures to improve food supply as part of its strategy to reduce food prices.
“Food and fuel subsidies are costly and ineffective,” Ruto said in September 2022.
In 2023, the President also linked cheaper maize flour to duty-free imports and government efforts to improve access to key commodities.
He said the measures had helped bring unga down from Sh230 to between Sh155 and Sh180.
“We made an intentional and strategic decision to subsidise production, and not consumption. It not only drove our nation into deeper financial distress, but were also unsustainable, opaque and only benefited middlemen,” Ruto said.
The figures therefore give the government a point of defence.
But even here, the picture is not entirely straightforward.
Prices at individual shops can differ considerably from the national average, and the cheapest packet available in one location may not be representative of what households elsewhere pay.
Still, compared with the prices seen in 2022, maize flour is one of the clearest examples of a basic commodity that has become more affordable.
Fuel: Significantly more expensive
Fuel is the clearest example of the difference between the prices Kenyans faced when Ruto took office and what they are paying today. However, the 2026 increase must be viewed against the global oil shock caused by the US-Iran conflict.
When Ruto assumed office, Nairobi’s maximum pump price for super petrol was Sh159.12 per litre, diesel Sh140 and kerosene Sh127.94 for the August 15-September 14, 2022 pricing cycle.
The situation changed dramatically within days of his inauguration.
On September 15, 2022, after the reduction of fuel subsidies, petrol rose to Sh179.30, diesel to about Sh165 and kerosene to about Sh147.94.
Ruto had defended the decision in his inauguration speech, describing fuel and food subsidies as “costly and ineffective”.
He also said Kenya was “in a deep economic hole”.
That decision remains one of the most consequential economic choices of his presidency.
By July 15, 2026, Nairobi motorists were paying Sh214.03 for petrol, Sh222.86 for diesel and Sh191.38 for kerosene.
EPRA retained those prices through August 14.
Compared with the prices in force when Ruto took office, petrol is about Sh55 higher, diesel about Sh83 higher and kerosene about Sh63 higher per litre.
The comparison, however, needs context.
Kenya imports virtually all of its petroleum products, making domestic prices highly sensitive to international oil prices, shipping costs, the exchange rate, taxes and other charges.
The 2026 Middle East conflict caused a major shock to international energy markets, pushing up the cost of imported petroleum products.
The government responded with measures intended to cushion consumers, including fuel-price stabilisation and tax relief.
In May, Ruto said the government had committed Sh28.19 billion in fuel-price support through stabilisation measures and tax interventions during the April-May and May-June pricing cycles.
The July-August cycle also included a Sh945 million subsidy from the Petroleum Development Levy, while the reduced 8 per cent VAT on petroleum products was extended to October 14, 2026.
That makes the fuel story more nuanced.
Motorists are paying more than they did when Ruto took office.
But the 2026 spike cannot fairly be attributed entirely to domestic government policy.
Global oil prices, geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, the exchange rate and taxation have all played a role.
Transport: Cost passed on to commuters
Higher fuel costs have fed directly into public transport.
There is no single national matatu fare because prices vary by route, distance, time of day and market conditions.
But the trend has been clear: transport has become more expensive.
KNBS reported transport inflation of 16.1 per cent in June 2026, making it one of the strongest sources of annual price pressure.
Transport, food and housing-related costs together account for more than 57 per cent of the consumer price index basket, giving changes in these categories a substantial effect on household budgets.
The pressure has been particularly visible whenever fuel prices have risen sharply.
In April 2026, for example, the government faced a major fuel-price shock as international petroleum prices rose amid the Middle East conflict.
The increase pushed up operating costs for matatus, buses, trucks and other transport businesses.
For commuters, the impact is straightforward: when operators pay more for fuel, maintenance and other inputs, fares come under pressure.
The impact of transport costs, however, extends beyond passengers.
A farmer paying more to move produce to market, a wholesaler transporting food from Mombasa or western Kenya, and a manufacturer moving goods across the country all face higher logistics costs.
Those costs can eventually find their way into the prices of food and other consumer goods.
Electricity: The complicated bill
Electricity costs have also changed considerably, making a simple 2022-versus-2026 comparison difficult.
The final electricity bill is affected by the tariff structure, fuel-energy charges, taxes, foreign-exchange adjustments and other pass-through costs.
The government has periodically reviewed tariffs in an effort to balance consumer protection with the financial health of the electricity sector.
Ruto said in January 2023 that his administration would review electricity tariffs, with particular attention to low-income households and manufacturers.
“We will have public consultation to ensure that we have tariffs that are affordable to those at the bottom of the economic pyramid and our manufacturers,” he said.
Yet electricity remains a significant expense for households.
KNBS data shows that the cost of electricity has continued to fluctuate. In June 2026, for example, the cost of 200kWh fell from Sh5,535.22 to Sh5,476.34, while the cost of 50kWh was around Sh1,300.
The monthly bill therefore depends not only on how much power a household consumes but also on the various charges incorporated into the final amount.
Food basket remains mixed
Beyond unga, the food basket presents a mixed picture.
KNBS data shows that prices have moved in different directions even within the same year.
In June 2026, for example, the average price of a 2kg packet of sifted maize flour was about Sh159.78, while sugar averaged Sh166.62 per kilogramme and cooking oil Sh358.63 per litre.
Sugar has been particularly volatile over the four-year period.
At various points, it has been significantly more expensive than it was at the beginning of Ruto’s presidency, although recent prices have also eased from earlier peaks.
Cooking oil has similarly moved up and down in response to international commodity prices, exchange-rate movements and domestic supply conditions.
The bigger concern is the overall food basket.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation was 8.6 per cent in June 2026, according to KNBS, meaning the category was still considerably more expensive than it had been a year earlier.
This illustrates why households may feel that the cost of living remains high even when the price of a particular commodity falls.
A cheaper packet of unga does not necessarily compensate for higher transport, electricity, rent, school costs, healthcare expenses or other household bills.
Cooking gas: Some relief
LPG has also produced a mixed result.
The average price of a 13kg cylinder was around Sh3,100 at the beginning of Ruto’s presidency.
It subsequently fell below Sh2,800 in 2023, providing some relief to households shifting from charcoal and kerosene.
But prices later climbed again.
By 2026, the average 13kg refill was around Sh3,400, putting it above the level recorded at the beginning of the administration.
For the small 6kg LPG cylinder, a refill in 2022 was Sh1,500 in Nairobi at the time Ruto took office.
In April 2026, a refill of the cylinder went for between Sh1,200 and Sh1,400, although prices vary by brand and location.
The government has promoted LPG as a cleaner cooking fuel and sought to increase its adoption among households.
The challenge is affordability.
For a middle-class household, a few hundred shillings added to the cost of a gas refill may be manageable.
For a low-income household living on irregular earnings, it can determine whether a family buys gas, charcoal or another fuel source.
The price of energy therefore has consequences beyond the energy bill itself.
So, has life become cheaper?
The answer depends on what a household buys.
Ruto’s administration can point to cheaper maize flour and periods when other food commodities, including cooking oil and sugar, have fallen from earlier peaks.
Inflation is also lower than the 8.5 per cent recorded in August 2022.
But lower inflation should not be confused with falling prices across the economy.
A household that spent Sh10,000 on its monthly basket in 2022 may need substantially more today.
Once prices rise, they do not automatically return to their previous levels when inflation slows.
This is the central weakness in using inflation alone as a measure of whether Kenyans are better off.
The more meaningful question is purchasing power.
Has household income increased sufficiently to cover the higher cost of fuel, transport, electricity, food and other necessities?
For workers whose salaries have grown slowly, or whose income has remained unchanged, the answer may be very different from that of households whose earnings have risen faster than prices.
The Kenya cost-of-living debate is therefore not simply about whether one packet of unga costs less.
It is about the entire household basket.
The four-year scorecard
Four years into Ruto’s presidency, the cost-of-living scorecard is neither a clean victory nor a complete failure.
Cheaper or showing periods of relief: Maize flour is the clearest example, while some food commodities have recorded significant declines from earlier peaks.
More expensive: Fuel remains substantially above the prices in force when Ruto took office, while LPG, sugar and several other household expenses have also been higher at various points.
Still under pressure: Transport and food remain major sources of inflation, while electricity continues to be a significant monthly expense.
The government can reasonably argue that it has brought down the pace at which prices are rising from the exceptionally high levels of 2022.
It can also point to agricultural interventions and measures taken to cushion households from global fuel shocks.
Ruto himself has repeatedly framed his economic agenda around ordinary households.
In 2022, he said public resources should be directed towards projects that “expand economic opportunities for the people.”
