New survey bears out perception of widening disconnect between citizens’ democratic aspirations and their confidence in those entrusted to deliver them.
The trust of Kenyans in key state institutions, including the electoral agency and police, has plunged to an unprecedented low, a new survey has indicated.
Findings by Afrobarometer and the Mo Ibrahim Foundation show that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is trusted by only 36 per cent of Kenyans. The report on the survey is dated July.
The electoral commission is not alone in apparently lacking the people’s confidence.
The National Police Service also commands the trust of only 36 per cent of Kenyans, the findings suggest.
Only 45 per cent of Kenyans told pollsters they trust the President, compared to 72 per cent a decade ago, as reported by Afrobarometer.
Parliament commands the confidence of only 44 per cent of respondents, pollsters reported, while the Judiciary is trusted by 50 per cent.
According to the findings, there is a widening disconnect between citizens’ democratic aspirations and their confidence in those entrusted to deliver them.
While nine in every 10 Kenyans reject dictatorship and more than three-quarters support multiparty democracy, confidence in political parties, Parliament, the presidency, the police and the electoral commission has steadily declined over the past decade.
The Afrobarometer survey reported that 77 per cent of Kenyans say the country needs many political parties to give voters genuine political choice.
Some 82 per cent said they reject one-party rule, while an overwhelming 91 per cent reject dictatorship as an alternative form of government.
Yet, attachment to political parties has weakened significantly.
Only 47 per cent of Kenyans said they feel close to a political party, down sharply from 68 per cent in 2003.
Trust in the ruling party has equally fallen from 65 per cent to 38 per cent over the same period, while opposition parties command the confidence of only 43 per cent of respondents.
The report identifies Kenya among only seven African countries where demand for democracy has increased over the past decade, recording a four-percentage-point rise alongside Uganda, Liberia, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia, Morocco and Madagascar.
According to the findings, while Kenyans continue to value democratic governance, they are becoming increasingly critical of the institutions expected to deliver it.
The report attributes declining democratic commitment across Africa to worsening economic conditions, growing poverty, perceptions of corruption and diminishing confidence in electoral processes.
It notes that the proportion of Africans living in moderate or severe poverty has risen from 47 per cent to 59 per cent over the past decade.
During the same period, the proportion of citizens who believed elections were not free and fair increased from 25 per cent to 35 per cent, while perceptions that "most" or "all" officials in the presidency are corrupt also rose significantly.
Researchers cautioned that declining confidence in institutions has implications beyond elections.
The report indicates that public support for democracy is closely linked to the resilience of democratic systems and warns that weakening commitment to democratic norms can create opportunities for anti-democratic actors and undermine institutional legitimacy.
The concerns over institutional credibility reflect findings by the Kofi Annan Foundation's Electoral Vulnerability Index 2026-27.
The report also identified public confidence in Kenya's institutions as central to safeguarding peaceful and credible elections.
While describing Kenya's democratic institutions as stronger than those in many high-risk countries, the Kofi Annan Foundation warned that public expectations are equally high.
"If institutions are perceived as captured, inconsistent or unprepared, public reaction can be sharp," theAfrobarometer report reads, adding that the IEBC's composition, credibility and operational readiness are central to risk reduction ahead of the 2027 general election.
The report further describes the Judiciary as "an important stabilising institution", adding that the Supreme Court has provides a constitutional avenue for resolving disputed presidential elections.
It cautions, however, that the effectiveness of that role depends on public confidence that electoral evidence is preserved, election data remains accessible and political actors accept judicial authority even when they disagree with the outcome.
It also identifies election management and policing as among the key determinants of electoral stability, warning that delays in appointing IEBC commissioners, opaque procurement of electoral technology or failures in results transmission could revive disputes witnessed in previous elections.
The Kofi Annan Foundation further urges transparent, rights-based election security planning, saying heavy-handed policing during campaigns, demonstrations or post-election protests could rapidly escalate tensions.
