Within a week, rival political camps have intensified their outreach in the region through a series of high-profile meetings.
On Thursday, Mining CS Hassan Joho met his Youth Affairs counterpart Salim Mvurya to discuss joint programmes aimed at advancing the government's development agenda at the Coast.
They were joined in the meeting by Youth Affairs PS Fikirini Jacobs, who hails from Kilifi.
The meeting came just two days after another ‘civic engagement forum’ in Vipingo that brought together Joho, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro, Fikirini and other MPs from the Coast.
According to leaders present, the discussions centred on the region's political direction, voter registration and mobilisation, and rallying support for Ruto ahead of the 2027 polls.
“We also called on residents to unite and ensure their voices count by supporting President Ruto as he continues to drive the development agenda that is transforming the Coast region,” CS Joho said after the meeting.
“The future of the Coast is bigger than any single leader. It belongs to our people, their aspirations and the choices they make at the ballot.”
He added that as Coastal leaders, they will unite to protect and accelerate the progress in the region, which he said is improving lives and creating opportunities.
Barely a day later, Wiper leader and United Opposition principal Kalonzo Musyoka met Nyali MP and Mombasa gubernatorial aspirant Mohamed Ali.
Kalonzo said the talks centred on “national politics and the way forward for the Coast as we head into the campaign year”.
The meeting followed an earlier visit by Siaya Governor James Orengo, one of the leading figures in the Linda Mwananchi movement, to veteran Coast politician Chirau Ali Mwakwere.
Last week, Orengo sent clear signals that the camp was ready to welcome former CS Aisha Jumwa, who in her resignation from UDA statement said she was consulting on the party she will seek the Kilifi governorship.
The one-time vocal Ruto ally is expected to challenge Mung’aro, who currently backs the President.
Her decamping from UDA hands anti-government forces another experienced Coast campaigner in the region.
The flurry of meetings underscores the growing recognition by both camps that the Coast could prove decisive in a tightly contested presidential race.
According to the electoral commission, the Coast region had slightly more than 1.96 million registered voters during the 2022 General Election.
Mombasa accounted for 641,913 registered voters, Kilifi 588,602, Kwale 328,253, Taita Taveta 181,827, Tana River 141,096 and Lamu 81,453.
Presidential election results showed former ODM leader Raila winning all six counties, but with varying margins.
In Mombasa, Raila garnered 161,015 votes against Ruto’s 113,700. He won Kilifi with 204,536 votes against Ruto's 77,331, and Kwale with 125,541 votes against 51,918. In Taita Taveta, Raila secured 81,271 votes compared to Ruto's 29,148. He also edged Ruto in Tana River by 40,639 votes to 35,376 and in Lamu by 25,710 votes to 23,777, completing a clean sweep of the six Coast counties.
Political analysts say the landscape heading into 2027 is markedly different.
Kazungu Katana, who has analysed Coast politics for decades, notes that the political manoeuvres and alignments are a reflection of the competing interests.
With the death of Raila Odinga, ODM’s influence in the region has been diluted, he says.
Katana adds that politicians are looking for alternatives to align with realities on the ground.
“ODM was popular because of Raila. And many of those allies made it because of the six-piece voting. Now, most of those leaders are unpopular,” he said.
He added as things are, there is no clear winner in the region, and Ruto’s fortunes will depend on what he and his allies do in the remaining period to appease the residents.
Unlike in 2022, when Raila was the undisputed opposition presidential candidate, the opposition landscape has become more fragmented.
Kalonzo, DCP’s Rigathi Gachagua, Martha Karua and Eugene Wamalwa are working to forge a united opposition coalition ahead of the general election.
The Linda Mwananchi Movement is separately mobilising against the Kenya Kwanza administration. The two formations are widely expected to eventually come together under a grand opposition alliance.
At the same time, with the setting up of the broad-based government, several influential ODM leaders, including Joho, Mung’aro and Abdulswamad, are campaigning for the President.
This evolving political arrangement has made the Coast one of the country's most fluid electoral theatres.
The scramble is demonstrated in the latest voter registration. Data released after the first phase of the Enhanced Continuous Voter Registration exercise showed the Coast added more than 118,000 new voters, with counties such as Taita Taveta recording some of the highest increases during the exercise.
Outreach to influential politicians such as Ali, Mwakwere and Jumwa suggests anti-government forces are assembling a broad regional network to win the region.
On the other hand, with the absence of Raila on the ballot, Ruto will seek to use the broad-based arrangement to convert ODM support into his basket.
