The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) earlier said a strengthening El Niño, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole will increase the likelihood of heavy rains across Kenya and the greater Horn of Africa region.
"El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. But forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do. This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
WMO forecast that El Niño would strengthen rapidly between August and October, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to turn positive.
Together, the two climate systems are expected to shape weather across much of the world, with the Greater Horn of Africa likely to receive above-normal rainfall.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is important for Kenya because it often determines whether El Niño will bring heavy rains.
During a positive IOD, sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean near the East African coast become warmer than normal while waters near Indonesia cool.
The warmer waters release more moisture into the atmosphere, encouraging cloud formation and increasing the likelihood of heavier rainfall over Kenya and neighbouring countries.
Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said Kenya’s immediate outlook remains largely dry despite the global warning.
"The forecast for the next three months indicates that several parts of the country are expected to experience dry weather conditions in August and September and scattered rainfall in October," Muriuki said.
Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya,
Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kisumu, Kericho, Nyamira, Kisii,
Bomet, Migori, Homa Bay, Narok, West Pokot, Samburu and Turkana counties are expected to
receive below-average rainfall over the three-month period.
However, parts of Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, Lamu, Tana River, Taita Taveta and sections of Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit are expected to receive above-average rainfall.
"It is anticipated that much of these rains will be realised in the month of October," Muriuki said.
Isiolo and Kajiado counties are expected to remain generally dry during the period. Central Kenya counties, including Murang'a, Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Kiambu, Nairobi, Machakos, Makueni and Kitui, are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions with occasional rainfall in August, extending into early September before the seasonal rains begin in October.
"The forecast for August indicates that several parts of the country will be generally sunny and dry," Muriuki said.
Near-average to below-average rainfall is expected over
parts of Western, the Rift Valley and sections of the Coast, while
Turkana, Samburu and parts of West Pokot and Baringo are expected to receive
below-average rainfall.
Nairobi and neighbouring counties should expect intermittent cool and cloudy conditions, with occasional light rain or drizzle.
Muriuki said mean temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average across the country despite the chilly mornings experienced in some highland areas.
The department also warned that strong south-easterly winds are likely in parts of the North, Eastern and the Coast. The winds could damage roofs and power lines and disrupt marine transport. Fog over parts of the Central highlands may reduce visibility on roads and occasionally disrupt flights at Wilson and Jomo Kenyatta airports.
Cool conditions could lead to more cases of asthma, pneumonia, influenza and the common cold in the highlands. In arid counties, strong winds and dust may worsen respiratory illnesses and eye infections. Water shortages could also worsen in some pastoral areas because of the prolonged dry conditions.
