Political commentator Javas Bigambo /HANDOUT



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In every election period, political formations always emerge. They take the form of new parties gaining significance, existing parties expanding their influence, or pre-election coalitions being cemented by leaders aligned either to the government or the opposition.

The decision by some elected officials, including governors, senators, MPs and MCAs, to join Rigathi Gachagua's DCP signifies growing political activity. It shows that many politicians are reconsidering parties that now wield greater influence in their regions than those that sponsored them in the 2022 general election.

For Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata and others who have already declared their move, as well as those yet to make their intentions public, whether from UDA or other parties, the shift to DCP suggests that the party has significantly expanded its political footprint in the Mt Kenya region. It now appears to be the dominant political vehicle heading into next year's elections.

More defections to DCP are therefore likely. This is also informed by the way Gachagua is mobilising Mt Kenya region. While persuading leaders to join DCP, he has also warned those who refuse but still seek elective office that they could face rejection by voters, using the analogy that "the snake has to be crushed together with the eggs."

Beyond the desire to defeat President William Ruto and UDA, such rhetoric could also be viewed as a political threat whose consequences may extend beyond the ballot box. Kenya's election periods have often been characterised by political intolerance, both verbal and physical, and some individuals could find themselves on the receiving end of such hostility.

For Ruto, retaining support in the Mt Kenya remains a key objective. UDA is therefore likely to sponsor candidates across counties such as Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi to help secure votes for the President. The pre-election coalition he eventually forms could also persuade some leaders to work with him.

Nonetheless, judging by the current political landscape, it appears unlikely that Ruto will secure more than 50 per cent of the Mt Kenya vote. His strategy may instead be to ensure he does not emerge empty-handed, even if he retains only 15 to 20 per cent of the region's vote.

The political commentator spoke to the Star