Duale: Pastoralists, Coast to become future election kingmakers

Health CS Aden Duale has declared that Kenya's pastoralist communities and the Coast region will command the "tyranny of numbers" in future elections.

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Duale said so, dismissing opposition claims that the regions lack sufficient votes to influence the country's political direction.

Speaking in Garissa during the Devolution Sensitisation Week, where he was the chief guest, Duale insisted that northern Kenya and the Coast would emerge as a formidable political bloc capable of determining the outcome of presidential elections.

Duale said their population was growing steadily and would only become more influential in the years ahead.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has argued that the pastoralist counties do not possess enough votes to decide a presidential contest.

Gachagua has in recent months maintained that the political alliance he is assembling commands nearly eight million votes, which he says will be enough to unseat the President in the 2027 General Election.

But Duale disputed those figures, saying he had personally reviewed the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) voter register and established that the numbers being cited by the opposition were exaggerated.

According to the Health CS, the regions being referenced by Gachagua account for about 3.5 million registered voters, not the eight million being claimed.

"I looked at the IEBC register, and the figures being peddled are simply not correct. The numbers are much lower than what some people are claiming," Duale said.

Despite acknowledging the current voter statistics, Duale expressed confidence that the pastoralist counties and the Coast region would steadily increase their electoral influence and ultimately become one of the country's most decisive voting blocs.

"The people of Coast Province and Northern Kenya, we will make sure that in the next election and in the elections that follow, we become number one in terms of the tally of votes," he declared.

The latest remarks add another chapter to the escalating political confrontation between Duale and Gachagua, who have in recent days traded sharp exchanges over national politics and allegations of incitement.

Beyond the debate over voter numbers, Duale also revisited the constitutional discussions that preceded the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution, arguing that Kenya missed an opportunity by rejecting a purely parliamentary system of government.

He recalled that leaders from the North Eastern region had strongly backed a parliamentary model, while other parts of the country favoured retaining a presidential system.

According to Duale, a parliamentary system would have reduced the high stakes associated with presidential elections by shifting political competition to constituency-level contests.

"Before I die, I hope one day Kenya will return to a parliamentary system of government that devolves elections from Bomas to the constituencies, like in India, the United Kingdom and Ethiopia, where governments are formed through parliamentary representation," he said.

Nevertheless, Duale said the pastoralist communities had accepted the reality of the presidential system and would instead build their political strength through population growth and voter mobilisation.

In a light-hearted but politically loaded remark that drew laughter from the audience, Duale suggested that the region would leverage its demographic growth to increase its influence at the ballot.

"If we were denied a parliamentary system, then we will meet you in a presidential system. We will marry four wives, raise many children and use our numbers to ensure we have a major say in the leadership of this country," he said.

His comments come amid heightened political realignments ahead of the 2027 General Election, with both the Kenya Kwanza administration and the opposition intensifying efforts to consolidate regional voting blocs.

For months, Gachagua has argued that a coalition of Mt Kenya, parts of Western, the Coast and other opposition-friendly regions will have sufficient numbers to send President Ruto home after one term.