Former CS Fred Matiang'i/FILEFormer Interior CS Fred Matiang'i's presidential bid is facing its toughest test yet as opposition leaders rethink their preferred 2027 ticket.
The Star has established that influential figures steering opposition unity are increasingly leaning towards a Kalonzo Musyoka-Edwin Sifuna ticket.
Multiple sources familiar with the talks say the pair is now viewed as offering the strongest challenge against President William Ruto.
The discussions, insiders say, are now centred on who should lead the ticket, with both Kalonzo and Sifuna being considered for the presidential slot.
The latest thinking marks a significant shift from earlier plans that reportedly favoured a Kalonzo-Matiang'i pairing.
Sources say Matiang'i, who is currently the Jubilee deputy party leader, had initially emerged as the preferred choice because of his perceived appeal among young voters.
His growing political visibility in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, buoyed by Uhuru Kenyatta’s backing, was also a factor.
But political calculations have since changed as Jubilee's support in Mt Kenya is dwindling following a disastrous performance in the Ol Kalou by-election.
The rise of the Linda Mwananchi movement has boosted Sifuna's national profile with Matiang'i's Gusii allies now publicly drumming the presidential bid of the Nairobi Senator.
In the eyes of some opposition strategists, Sifuna is said to resonate better among younger voters and Raila Odinga's traditional support base.
The events of the past weeks have complicated Matiang'i's path to the top of the coalition.
Multiple sources intimated to the Star that numbers are also increasingly shaping the conversation.
Western Kenya's four counties, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia and Vihiga, had a combined 2.2 million registered voters in the 2022 general election.
The region added about 231,000 voters during the recent Enhanced Continuous Voter Registration exercise by the IEBC.
By comparison, the Gusii region had 960,290 registered voters in 2022 and gained about 88,650 new voters, taking the total to just over one million.
Some coalition strategists argue the numbers strengthen Sifuna's bargaining position as negotiations intensify.
With Western region becoming a factor in the 2027 arithmetic, the tide is said to have turned in unexpected proportions.
Matiang'i is also battling another political headwind following the recent by election in Nyandarua.
His perceived inroads into Mt Kenya suffered a setback after Jubilee's poor showing in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.
The outcome reinforced DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua's dominance in the region and weakened the argument that Matiang'i could significantly influence the mountain vote.
Gachagua is also understood to favour Kalonzo as the opposition's presidential candidate.
Sources say discussions within the coalition have simultaneously focused on finding a senior role for Gachagua should the opposition win power.
Those close to the talks say Gachagua is being considered for a position akin to Prime Cabinet Secretary, subject to legal and constitutional developments.
The opposition is closely watching proceedings before the Supreme Court, on a matter which has a bearing on Gachagua’s impeachment debacle.
A five-judge bench led by Deputy Chief Justice Philomena Mwilu recently directed Attorney General Dorcas Oduor to file a legal opinion on whether impeached persons with active appeals can be cleared by IEBC to run for elective posts.
The AG is supposed to respond to the matter before the case, a constitutional reference was filed in April by Meru County Assembly Speaker Ayub Bundi, returns on August 10.
Some opposition leaders believe a favourable ruling could strengthen Gachagua's eligibility to hold public office.
The coalition is also discussing proposals contained in the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report.
The report recommended the creation of the office of Prime Minister and two deputy prime ministers.
Sources say those proposals have featured prominently in discussions on how to accommodate key opposition figures.
Matiang'i is understood to have been presented with the possibility of taking up one of those senior executive positions should the coalition form government.
Insiders say pressure is mounting on him to remain within the opposition despite the changing political arithmetic.
His exit, they argue, would dent the coalition's message of unity ahead of the 2027 elections.
At the same time, the former Interior CS is said to be under sustained pressure from figures within Kenya Kwanza to reconsider his political alignment.
Political analysts say the developments have left Matiang'i in an increasingly delicate position.
His bargaining power depends largely on his ability to deliver the Gusii vote, an influence that has also come under fresh scrutiny.
Several elected leaders from the region have remained aligned to Linda Mwananchi instead of openly rallying behind Matiang'i.
The split among Gusii MPs has arguably weakened his leverage as coalition negotiations gather pace.
Fresh tensions have also emerged between Jubilee and Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party.
The fallout followed Gachagua's remarks urging tourists to avoid Kenya because of political unrest.
Jubilee condemned the remarks, warning they could hurt millions of Kenyans whose livelihoods depend on tourism.
DCP hit back through Nyandarua Senator John Methu who accused Jubilee of double standards, pointing to the Ol Kalou by-election where the two parties backed rival candidates.
"We find it ironic that a party which has spent the past few weeks campaigning against DCP in the Ol Kalou by-election is now preaching unity," Methu said.
The exchange laid bare the tensions simmering beneath the opposition's united front.
On Wednesday, Matiang'i sought to project unity after meeting leaders affiliated with Linda Mwananchi.
"Our discussions focused on strengthening strategic coordination across the United Alternative Government and aligning our efforts as we continue to offer Kenyans a credible, principled and people-centred alternative ahead of the 2027 general election," he said.
His allies have also dismissed claims that his camp is under pressure.
Morara Kebaso, who is seeking an elective seat under Matiang'i's political outfit, insisted the former CS's campaign remains firmly on course.
"There is no unease or discomfort. We are realigning our troops for the second leg of Matiang'i's campaign," Kebaso said.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The reported shift from a Kalonzo–Matiang'i ticket to a possible Kalonzo–Sifuna pairing highlights the fluid nature of opposition coalition politics ahead of 2027. Negotiations are increasingly being driven by electoral arithmetic, regional voting blocs and perceived political momentum rather than early endorsements. Jubilee's poor Ol Kalou showing has weakened Matiang'i's leverage, while Sifuna's rising profile under Linda Mwananchi has strengthened his bargaining power. The outcome could reshape both opposition unity and the race against President William Ruto.
