Opposition’s dilemma over Sifuna entry in race to remove Ruto

Identifying a single presidential candidate without triggering divisions remains the biggest hurdle for the opposition as an alliance with the Edwin Sifuna wing looms.

Some insiders in the opposition now say having Sifuna as the joint opposition presidential flagbearer could be the best move against President William Ruto.

At worst, however, they say the Sifuna wing of Linda Mwananchi should be handed the running mate slot.

Backers of this scenario cite Sifuna’s popularity among the youth — a decisive demographic in the 2027 polls — his lack of political baggage and perceptions that he represents a break from the past.

The Luhya community, to which Sifuna belongs, is also the country’s second-largest ethnic bloc by population.

“Sifuna represents more than a voice. He represents a direction. His style — direct, unfiltered and often confrontational — resonates with a younger, more impatient constituency,” political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli said.

However, this would mean all the other opposition heavyweights, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a former Vice President, shelving their presidential ambitions.

Even before the Linda Mwananchi team emerged, the presidential ticket had already become a thorny issue within the opposition.

A retreat to discuss the matter, initially scheduled for February, collapsed twice.

Beyond Kalonzo, several other heavyweights are eyeing the top seat, further complicating coalition talks.

They include former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Jubilee-linked Fred Matiang’i, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi and People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua.

There are fears that disgruntled candidates could easily be lured to President Ruto’s side.

Gachagua is currently battling his impeachment in court.

If cleared, the vocal former Mathira MP, who is widely seen as the Mt Kenya kingpin, is believed unlikely to settle for anything less than either the presidency or deputy presidency.

But even if Gachagua is barred, questions remain over whether Mt Kenya, the country’s biggest voting bloc, would agree to provide votes and bankroll opposition campaigns without a stake at the top.

Mt Kenya tycoons have been among the most consequential election funders since the advent of multiparty politics.

Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale confirmed that there have been talks around Sifuna for a top seat.

“It is true, talks have been going on, but I must say they are still informal. A formal meeting will only happen when we call for a retreat as the opposition,” Khalwale said.

The overarching strategy is to present a single challenger against Ruto, minimising the risk of a fragmented opposition.

“We don’t want a ballot paper that has many names to tire Kenyans. We only need two names — the incumbent and one from the opposition. That will follow deep talks,” Sifuna said recently.

However, the unity push is already exposing challenges, particularly over who should carry the opposition’s presidential flag.

Sources within the coalition indicate that Kalonzo is being fronted by some leaders as the most suitable candidate because of his long political experience and national profile.

But this position is not universally accepted.

Political analyst Martin Andati predicts Sifuna will be on the presidential ticket.

“It is highly likely that he will be on the ballot, either as President or running mate.”

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a key Kalonzo ally, said the Wiper leader will easily become the opposition flagbearer.

“It is obvious. Kalonzo is the most experienced. He is presidential. Everyone wants him to be the president. But we will sit down as the opposition. What we want is one term for Ruto,” Maanzo said.

Beyond Kalonzo and Sifuna, several other heavyweights are eyeing the top seat, further complicating coalition talks.

Analysts also warn that failing to accommodate Mt Kenya interests could complicate efforts to consolidate the region against Ruto.

But Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, a close ally of Gachagua, downplayed claims that the region is bargaining for positions.

“Asking what we will get is reducing a national conversation to a person or region. Our aim in the opposition is to form a mega coalition and agree on the presidential candidate,” Muriu said.

“We are not preoccupied with who will be what. Our agenda and objective is to rescue this country.”

Another emerging contender is former Interior Cabinet Secretary Matiang’i, who is steadily gaining traction across different constituencies.

Often referred to as “Mr Fix It” during former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration, Matiang’i is credited with a tough, results-driven leadership style that appeals to sections of the electorate seeking decisive governance.

He is believed to have consolidated support in the Gusii region while also attracting interest among Gen Z voters, many of whom have amplified his candidature through social media campaigns.

Some opinion polls have shown his national popularity above Kalonzo’s.

However, it remains unclear whether Matiang’i would accept a secondary role in a coalition arrangement or insist on running for the presidency.

Political analyst Prof Kaburu Kinoti argues that Matiang’i’s assertiveness could make him a formidable challenger to Ruto.

“Matiang’i is tough, and that is good, especially when facing someone like Ruto. Even if the opposition loses, they will keep the government in check,” Kinoti said.

He added that a Kalonzo–Matiang’i ticket could emerge as a compromise formula.

But opposition strategists are also aware that the political landscape has shifted significantly since the last election.

The rise of Gen Z political activism has fuelled anti-establishment sentiment and growing frustration with traditional politicians.

That is where Sifuna’s allies believe he holds an advantage.

To them, the Nairobi Senator represents a younger, more combative and less compromised political brand capable of energising urban and first-time voters who have become increasingly disillusioned with mainstream politics.