MONDAY OPED - OBADO: Keeping Kenya Airways aloft Is a strategic imperative

For years, Kenya’s national carrier, Kenya Airways, has operated under persistent financial and operational strain. Its return to profitability in 2024, posting Sh5.4 billion, the first such result in over a decade, marked a notable turnaround. Yet scepticism has endured. 

Critics have consistently questioned the rationale for continued public support, arguing that scarce fiscal resources should be directed elsewhere. On the surface, that argument has often appeared persuasive. Recent global developments, however, offer a more sobering perspective.

Renewed instability across parts of the Middle East has once again exposed the fragility of overreliance on external aviation networks. For years, Kenya’s international connectivity has leaned heavily on Gulf carriers, which collectively operate dozens of weekly frequencies into Nairobi. When disruptions occur, whether from conflict, airspace restrictions or operational recalibrations, that capacity can diminish rapidly, leaving markets exposed.

In such moments, the presence of a national carrier shifts from being a commercial question to that of a strategic necessity.

In the face of recent disruptions, Kenya Airways has demonstrated an ability to respond with agility, absorbing displaced passenger and cargo demand, adjusting routes and maintaining critical connectivity to key global markets.

Load factors have strengthened significantly, even during traditionally softer travel periods, reflecting both suppressed demand and the airline’s capacity to step into gaps left by others.

This is the often-overlooked function of a flag carrier: not merely to compete in favourable conditions, but to provide resilience when global systems falter.

Even without absent external shocks, the broader economic case for a national airline remains compelling. Kenya Airways directly employs thousands and sustains many more livelihoods across tourism, logistics and trade.

The wider aviation ecosystem contributes materially to national output, underpinning sectors that rely on predictable, reliable air connectivity, ranging from horticulture exports to high-value services.

The idea of dismantling such an institution in pursuit of a more “efficient” successor is, therefore, far from straightforward. Experience elsewhere on the continent suggests that attempts to radically restructure or downscale national carriers often come at significant cost.

South African Airways, once among Africa’s most prominent airlines, has faced a prolonged and uneven recovery following restructuring efforts. Reduced long-haul capacity and the collapse of complementary low-cost operators eroded network strength and weakened the broader aviation ecosystem that had sustained it.

The lesson is clear: aviation systems function as interconnected networks, not isolated enterprises.

Encouragingly, recent developments at Kenya Airways point towards a more measured approach. The composition of its current board reflects a deliberate blend of governance, financial and sectoral expertise.

Having navigated a difficult restructuring phase, the airline’s central challenge now is less existential and more strategic: securing the capital and operational flexibility required to sustain growth in a recovering market.

If effectively managed, this next phase could mark the transition from survival to stability.

The debate around Kenya Airways should therefore move beyond narrow questions of profitability. National carriers, particularly in emerging markets, serve a dual purpose: they are commercial entities, yes, but also strategic instruments that safeguard connectivity, enable trade and reinforce national resilience in an unpredictable world.

At a time when global aviation remains vulnerable to geopolitical and economic shocks, the value of maintaining that capability is not theoretical. It is practical, immediate, and when tested, indispensable.

CEO and Chief Reputation Officer at BCL Group, an aviation communication strategist and reputation adviser