Where are they? Data reveals declining transition across junior school grades

Drop in learner progression from Grade 7 to 9 raises fresh concerns over retention under the competency-based system.

A sizeable number of learners in the pioneer cohort of the Competency-Based Education (CBE) who transitioned to junior school in 2023 did not complete the cycle, new data shows.

Fresh figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics indicate that the government’s 100 per cent transition policy from primary to secondary school may not have fully achieved its intended outcomes, even as overall enrolment to junior school rose by 46.6 per cent over a three-year period. 

According to the 2026 Economic Survey, a total of 1,287,500 learners enrolled in Grade 7 in 2023, comprising 656,000 boys and 631,500 girls.

However, the numbers declined the following year, with 1,243,200 learners recorded in Grade 8 in 2024. Of these, 643,000 were boys while 600,200 were girls, reflecting a drop in transition between the two grades.

About 13,000 boys who enrolled in Grade 7 did not progress to Grade 8 in 2024. The decline was steeper among girls, with at least 31,300 not making the transition.

By 2025, when the pioneer junior school cohort sat the inaugural Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA), the number of learners who transitioned to Grade 9 had further fallen to 1,149,800. The number of boys stood at 589,900 compared to 559,900 girls.

The cumulative effect over the three years of junior school (Grade 7-9) shows a significant number of learners failing to complete the cycle.

Of the 656,000 boys who initially transitioned from primary to Grade 7, at least 66,100 did not reach Grade 9. Similarly, of the 631,500 girls who joined Grade 7, at least 71,600 did not transition through to Grade 9.

The statistics come against the backdrop of rising adolescent pregnancies, which the survey links to increased vulnerability among school-age girls.

The report shows that pregnancies among girls aged 10 to 19 years increased by 2.2 per cent to 235,900 in 2025. More sharply, pregnancies among girls aged 10 to 14 rose by 14.6 per cent.

The figures have renewed concern over child pregnancies in Kenya, particularly within the 10–14 age group, which largely falls under the junior school category, with early marriages cited as a possible contributing factor.

County-level data indicates that teen pregnancies are a nationwide catastrophe, with data from the top 10 counties painting a worrying trend.

Kajiado county leads with 936 pregnancies among girls aged 10 to 14, followed by Garissa with 725 cases, Homa Bay at 648, Narok at 601 and Turkana at 600.

Other counties in the top ten include Meru with 556 cases, Mandera at 535, Nairobi at 483, Kitui at 413 and West Pokot at 400.

Although Nairobi ranked eighth among counties with pregnancies in the 10–14 age bracket, it recorded the highest overall number of adolescent pregnancies among those aged 10 to 19, with 14,291 cases.

The county also saw pregnancies among girls aged 10 to 14 more than double from 234 cases in 2024 to 483 in 2025, indicating a growing urban child protection concern.