LIBAN: Climate change, vulnerability and rising inter-communal conflicts

Kenya is increasingly witnessing a worrying pattern: as climate change worsens droughts, floods and resource scarcity, intercommunal conflicts are intensifying across many regions. From the rangelands of Marsabit and Isiolo to the dry plains of Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu and Baringo, competition over dwindling pasture, water and grazing routes has become more frequent and violent.

Climate vulnerability is no longer just an environmental problem—it is fast becoming a national peace and security concern. Climate change has amplified vulnerability not only among pastoralists but also between pastoralist communities and farmers, as witnessed in Tana River and Kilifi, pitting Orma and Somali against Pokomo and Mijikenda, exposing the fragile balance that has sustained them for generations.

Among pastoralist communities such as the Borana, Gabra, Rendille, Pokot and Turkana, survival has always depended on mobility, negotiation and communal resource sharing. Traditional systems like the Dheeda among the Borana once provided a well-organised governance framework for pasture management and conflict resolution.

The system emphasised rotational grazing and pasture conservation during dry seasons. Elders enforce grazing rotation, mediate disputes and regulate access to scarce resources between and amongst clans with fairness and equity.

Sadly, in recent years, modern pressures—from shifting administrative boundaries, politicisation of ethnicities, human and livestock pressure, land privatisation, and disregard of indigenous institutions—have undermined the Dheeda system. When traditional authority erodes, the vacuum is often filled by conflict and opportunistic leaders who exploit divisions between communities for their own selfish interests.

The government has, to its credit, developed several policies and institutional responses. The National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), National Policy for Peacebuilding and Conflict Management, and National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) all seek to address the climate–conflict nexus.

Yet, implementation remains fragmented, underfunded and largely reactive. The lack of coordination between environmental, security, and peace institutions often results in delayed responses that come only after violence has erupted.

To move forward, three urgent interventions are needed. One, integrate climate security into national planning and budget.

Climate resilience and conflict prevention must be mainstreamed into the work of all ministries—not just those of environment and interior. The government should strengthen early warning and response systems that link climate data with security alerts.

Investment in water infrastructure, grazing corridors and alternative livelihoods should be prioritised in high-risk counties. Additionally, traditional resource management systems such as the Dheeda should be recognised and incorporated into devolved governance structures.

Two, revitalise indigenous conflict-resolution mechanisms

Communities must reclaim and adapt their traditional governance systems into modern governance model. Elders, women and youth can work together to revive the spirit of inter-clan negotiation and environmental stewardship. Cross-border peace committees, joint grazing agreements and cultural exchange programmes can rebuild trust and solidarity. Importantly, local knowledge – passed down for generations – must be valued as a key component of climate adaptation.

Three, CSOs should act as the bridge between state policy and local reality. Their role in peace education, environmental awareness and community dialogues remains indispensable. They should promote evidence-based advocacy and ensure that voices from the grassroots inform national climate and peace frameworks. Donors must move from short-term humanitarian aid to long-term resilience funding.

Kenya stands at a crossroads. The rising tension over climate-induced resource scarcity will deepen communal divisions, undermine national cohesion, reverse development gains and fuel cycles of revenge and displacement. But if handled wisely, the same crisis could become an opportunity for unity and innovation.

We must learn from the past – where communities shared resources through trust – and blend it with modern governance systems that value inclusivity and sustainability.

The future of peace in Kenya’s drylands will not depend on military patrols or political promises, but on our ability to govern climate risks collectively. By aligning government policy, traditional wisdom and civil society action, Kenya can transform climate stress into a foundation for peace and shared prosperity.

The time for fragmented responses is over. What we need now is a National Climate-Peace Compact—anchored in policy, powered by community resilience and driven by a shared vision of coexistence. Only then can Kenya move from a story of climate despair to one of climate hope.

Director for Peacebuilding, Healing and Reconciliation at the National Cohesion and Integration Commission