Why Ol Kalou by-election will be first test for Uhuru-Gachagua ‘newfound love’

For Uhuru, the stakes are particularly high. The seat was previously held by his Jubilee Party, and retaining it would signal that he still has political influence in the Mt Kenya region.

Jubilee has already begun rallying other opposition outfits to back its candidate, an indication of the importance the party attaches to the by-election as a show of strength and unity.

Gachagua, on the other hand, faces a delicate balancing act. Having recently repositioned himself politically, he may be compelled to shelve plans of fielding a candidate under his DCP and instead support Jubilee’s nominee.

Such a move would be interpreted as a clear endorsement of his growing alignment with Uhuru.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo said the Ol Kalou by-election is less about the seat itself and more about the evolving power dynamics in the Mt Kenya region.

“The emerging alignment between Uhuru Kenyatta and Rigathi Gachagua is still fragile and largely untested, making this contest a crucial indicator of whether their cooperation can translate into tangible political capital,” he said.

Orogo added that the primary objective will be to demonstrate that Jubilee Party remains a viable political force despite losing power in 2022.

He said a win in Ol Kalou would not only reaffirm his residual influence in the region but also strengthen his bargaining power in the broader opposition matrix.

“For Gachagua, the stakes are arguably higher. Backing Jubilee’s candidate, potentially at the expense of his party, would be a strategic gamble. On one hand, it could cement his rapprochement with Uhuru and position him as a unifying figure in the anti-Ruto camp. On the other, it risks portraying him as politically subordinate.”

Uhuru and Gachagua have significantly closed ranks, signalling a major political realignment in the Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2027 elections.

Following months of political silence and past hostility, the two leaders have reconnected, with Gachagua publicly declaring a renewed bond and praising Uhuru.

If Jubilee Party and Gachagua’s DCP both field candidates, analysts say the resulting vote split could significantly weaken the opposition’s chances.

Political observers warn that failure by the opposition to unite behind a single candidate could hand an easy victory to Ruto’s candidate.

Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni has already taken a firm stance, insisting that his party should be the sole opposition outfit to field a candidate in the race.

“We expect United Opposition to cede ground for Jubilee party. That was a Jubilee seat and we are ready to field a candidate to retain it,” Kioni said.

He argued that Jubilee, as the party that previously held the seat, has the necessary grassroots structures and political machinery to secure victory. Kioni further urged other opposition parties to rally behind Jubilee’s flagbearer in the spirit of unity.

The by-election has also drawn sharp reactions from government ranks, with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki taking direct aim at Gachagua.

Fresh from a political victory in Mbeere North, where candidates linked to Gachagua’s camp were defeated, Kindiki struck a combative tone as he looked ahead to the Ol Kalou contest.

“He came chest-thumping in Mbeere North, I floored him. Just wait, there is a by-election coming in Ol Kalou, we will meet there,” Kindiki said. “I will floor him badly. That is where he will learn to respect me.”

Political commentator Joseph Mutua said the Ol Kalou by-election also doubles as a proxy contest between Gachagua and Ruto.

He observed that the Ol Kalou outcome will offer early signals on whether Gachagua can effectively chip away at Ruto’s support or whether the President still retains firm control.

“If they falter, however, it would expose the limits of their partnership and embolden their rivals, particularly in Ruto’s camp.”

With Uhuru and Gachagua seeking to align their bases and UDA determined to maintain its grip on the region, the by-election is expected to offer early clues on the evolving balance of power in Mt Kenya politics.