Which way Mt Kenya, as Kindiki, Gachagua chart rival paths to power?

On one side, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his allies are rallying residents that re-electing President William Ruto is the region’s fastest route to State House.

On the other hand, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is rallying the same vote-rich bloc to hurtle towards the opposition.

Amid the push and shove, the grand question is whether Mt Kenya will stay loyal to Ruto or gamble its numbers as a swing vote.

For Kindiki’s camp, the message is that the community needs to exercise patience and allow Ruto to serve his second term.

The central call in their rallies and closed-door meetings is that backing Ruto in 2027 guarantees the region a clear shot at the presidency in 2032.

The DP said recently at his Irunduni residence that he was confident President Ruto would not drop him.

“Next year, as the people of Mt Kenya Region, we have no option but to re-elect President Ruto. A cow that is heavy with a calf cannot be slaughtered.”

“After the re-election of President William Ruto next year, we will only wait for five years. Then in 2032, the calf will be born,” Kindiki said.

The DP dismissed politicians, led by his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua, who are telling the region’s voters to kick out Ruto next year.

“Is it not easier and more strategic for our people to wait for five years than to wait for 10 years? We are sharp people and know how to make political calculations,” the DP quipped.

Ruto allies frame the current administration as already embedding Mt Kenya technocrats in key decision-making roles, giving the region a sense of belonging.

To abandon that arrangement midway, they warn, would be to forfeit their influence.

But Gachagua is offering a sharply different path, which is one rooted in sending the current regime packing.

Since his impeachment, he has recast himself as the defender of Mt Kenya’s bargaining power.

In his campaigns in the region, he has warned politicians, especially Ruto allies, that blind loyalty risks reducing the region to a junior partner.

For Gachagua and camp, the promise of a future handover is neither guaranteed nor enforceable.

Kenyan politics, he argues, is fraught with broken succession pacts and as such, waiting until 2032 could leave Mt Kenya in the cold.

Gachagua’s counter-strategy is to reposition the region as the decisive swing constituency from which one can negotiate from a position of strength.

In this regard, he is aligning with opposition forces, a team that has seen him work together with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Recent events have brought the rivalry between the two camps into the spotlight.

At a memorial service for the late Ol Kalou MP David Kiaraho in Nyandarua county, the two leaders clashed in their tone.

Gachagua launched a scathing attack on Kindiki, accusing him of breaching Mt Kenya cultural norms.

He claimed the Deputy President had discussed a potential by-election before the late legislator had even been buried.

Gachagua said, "We don’t discuss inheriting somebody until he is buried. Hapo professor umeanguka kidogo, utarekebisha."

Kindiki, however, struck a conciliatory tone and did not respond directly to the criticism but instead called for restraint.

"I want to encourage that going forward as a community, as a nation, let us learn how to respect one another, families and communities alike," Kindiki said.

"Let us put down political temperatures to allow mourning because we have a lot of opportunities to do politics outside the church."

Of late, the Deputy President has employed a strategic shift and appears to have ditched his hardline rhetoric against rivals.

Ruto, for his part, has dismissed claims that he is losing support in the region.

Speaking in Nyeri recently, thePresident insisted his bond with Mt Kenya is longstanding.

Political pundits note that Kindiki’s biggest gamble is trust, noting that his entire pitch assumes that the future transition will honour present-day loyalties.

Analysts who spoke to the Star noted that his influence is fragile and would only be more pronounced if UDA takes the Ol Kalou MP seat.

They argue that the November 2025 Mbeere North by-election, where Leo Wamuthende won by 46 per cent amid a low turnout, showed an erosion of support.

"Actuarial analysis suggests these numbers indicate a more than 60 per cent dip in President Ruto’s popularity," Prof Peter Kagwanja said.

Other observers hold that there is also the challenge of selling patience to a restless electorate.

Prof Macharia Munene says, “Kindiki was chosen as a test to see if he could replicate Gachagua’s influence.”

The pundits hold that Gachagua, on the other hand, faces the uphill task of building a credible alternative coalition.

Prof Gitile Naituli, a former NCIC commissioner, says the united opposition, though politically potent, requires structure, unity and a clear presidential contender.

“Without that, it is a high-stakes gamble. In Mt Kenya, leaders follow the people. When the time comes for voting, they will be able to judge who has delivered to them,” the don said.

Since not all leaders are willing to abandon the benefits of incumbency, a split vote would weaken the region's bargaining power.

For now, the region stands at a familiar crossroads, with every side courting it and calculating.